Manny Machado's Most Impactful Home Runs According to WPA

[Aidan Kurt]

Early in June against the San Francisco Giants, Manny Machado belted a home run in the top of the third inning to put the San Diego Padres ahead 2-0. The home run marked a major milestone: the 350th home run of his career.

Machado became the fifth active player to reach 350 home runs, behind Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, and Freddie Freeman. Since the swing, Machado has tied and passed Freeman for the fourth-most home runs with 355.

He’s hit 180 of these home runs as a Padre, leading the team in his tenure. These swings have combined for a 22.8 Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures the change in win expectancy based on, in this case, home runs.

In celebration of his 350th home run, let's take a look back at five of Machado’s most game-changing home runs based on WPA.

5. May 23, 2025 – .34 WPA
Registering a .34 WPA, Machado’s home run against the Atlanta Braves last month is the most recent on this list. It came in the top of the ninth inning in a 1-1 game. The Braves brought in their closer, Raisel Iglesias, to shut down the middle of the Padres' lineup. Instead, Machado led off the inning by putting a 2-2 slider 422 feet into the left field bleachers. Machado’s home run would prove to be the difference, as the Padres would hold off the Braves in the bottom half of the inning and win 2-1.

4. September 25, 2021 – .34 WPA
A few years prior, also against the Braves, Machado’s next biggest home run would ignite a thriller of a game at Petco Park. In the bottom of the fifth inning, the Padres would load the bases and, with two outs, were looking to cash in with Machado at the plate. Ahead in the count 2-1, Machado got a hanging slider and hit it 384 feet to left field. The swing registered a .34 WPA and would put the Padres ahead 7-3.

However, Machado’s home run would not be enough, as the Braves would put four runs themselves in the next inning and win the game 10-8 in ten innings. Nevertheless, this was Machado’s 12th and most recent grand slam.

If there’s one takeaway from these first two home runs, it’s that the Braves should stop throwing Machado sliders. In his career, he’s slugging .667 against sliders from Braves’ pitching, including four home runs, four doubles, and a triple.

3. April 30, 2022 – .35 WPA
Machado’s next biggest home run would come a season later against the Pittsburgh Pirates. In the eighth inning of a 3-3 tie, Jake Cronenworth would draw a one-out walk. The Pirates would bring in their closer, the hard-throwing David Bednar, an inning early to face Machado. Bednar had yet to give up a run so far that season.

He fell behind Machado 3-1. Trying to avoid a walk, he gave Machado a fastball over the heart of the plate, and he sent it 426 into right-center field, putting the Padres ahead 5-3. But the Pirates would overcome this .35 WPA with two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning and walk off the Padres in ten innings.

2 July 18, 2021 – .36 WPA
Just a few months before his grand slam against the Braves, Machado would have another impactful swing of the bat, this time against the Washington Nationals. Machado came up to bat in the top of the eighth inning, tied at four, and a runner on. Pitching was Daniel Hudson, who would join the Padres later that season.

Machado would turn on a 98 mph fastball and send it 413 feet into left field, 109.2 mph off the bat. With just an inning and a half left to play, the two-run home run would register a .36 WPA. Unfortunately, the Padres would be unable to hold on, dropping the game 8-7.

1. August 19, 2020 – .46 WPA
Machado’s most impactful home run as a Padre blows the rest of this list out of the water. Hosting the Texas Rangers, the Padres were headed into the bottom of the tenth, down a run. Thanks to an automatic runner and two walks, the Padres would load the bases for Machado. In a full count, Rafael Montero threw Machado a sinker over the middle of the plate, which he crushed 436 feet to left-center field at 112 mph.

Not only is this the hardest and furthest-hit ball on this list, but its .46 WPA is a full point higher than his home run against the Nationals. And there’s no greater way to top this list than a walk-off grand slam.

Machado’s next stop is 400 home runs — an even more exclusive club of just 58 players. He’ll likely reach this feat in the next season or two, by which time we may have some new home runs on this list.

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