The Really Absurd Thing About Luis Arráez's Batting Average

[Randy Holt]

On May 18, 2019, current San Diego Padres first baseman Luis Arráez made his big league debut with the Minnesota Twins. He hasn't had a career average under .300 since. 

Despite spending barely a calendar year with the Padres to this point, fans quickly became accustomed to what makes Luis Arráez such a fascinating quantity among big league hitters. He really only does one thing well. The three-time batting champion doesn't hit the ball hard, doesn't hit for power, doesn't walk, doesn't run the bases well, and doesn't play defense. But what does he do? 

If you're Moneyball-pilled, your instinctive response to that question is "he gets on base." However, even that would be a stretch. Yes, he has a .347 OBP for his career. But this is also a guy who walked at a clip of only 3.6% in 2024 (and is only at 2.6% thus far in 2025). No, our response here is: he puts the bat on the baseball. 

Since arriving at the top level back in 2019, no player has recorded a higher contact rate than Arráez, who sits at 93.1%. For context, Steven Kwan sits second (91.5%) and former big leaguer David Fletcher ranks third (90.7%). Both have roughly 1,000 fewer plate appearances than Arráez, however. His overall contact rate includes a rate of 95.1% on pitches inside of the strike zone and 88.3% percent on ones outside of it. The latter number is almost 10 percentage points higher than the second-ranked Fletcher.

There isn't anything particularly interesting or notable about the approach, either. He sits in roughly the middle of the pack in swing rates of all varieties. He's just exceptional at putting the bat on the baseball. That skill comes despite the following percentile distribution: 

Poor bat speed. Low barrel rates. Chases pitches. Rarely walks. But doesn't miss and puts the ball on exactly the part of the bat he needs. There are so many things that have pointed to why this skill set shouldn't work. And yet, it has. Every single day since May 18, 2019. 

Arráez flew out in the first plate appearance of his career. His average at that point was .000. He then doubled and finished the game with a .500 average. It remained the same after a 1-for-2 performance in career game no. 2. For the remainder of the season, the average fluctuated between .332 at the lowest and over .400 at the highest. He finished at a .334 BA across 366 PA for the season. 

The lowest average Arráez has posted in a season was .294 back in 2021. By then, though, he'd already turned in marks of .334 and .321. so a one-year dip under the .300 threshold wasn't going to touch him. Especially given that he went .316, .354, .314 in the three subsequent seasons. There really isn't anybody doing anything remotely like that these days. 

As it turns out, Stathead sort of...breaks when you're looking for streaks as long as this. A search into somewhat recent history would spit out Tony Gwynn and Larry Walker as names with comparable streaks hitting over the .300 mark. Names of an even more recent vintage would give you guys like Christian Yelich, Trea Turner, and Joey Votto. As far as the latter names go, each had enough years finishing under the .300 benchmark to pin them down into the .295 range as a career total. Arráez hasn't pushed such a streak far enough to put him at that point for even a single day. 

It's a pretty wild accomplishment. While batting average obviously doesn't carry the same weight it once did, there's something to be said about the ability to remain over a certain mark for the entirety of one's career. Especially while not doing anything particularly well. And while Arráez isn't off to the best of starts (90 wRC+ to date), he's coming off six hits in two games and has yet to strike out this season. 

So something is still working. Just as it has each day since May 18, 2019.

View full article

[Brock Beauchamp]

Arraez is far from an optimized player and we all know that but damn, he's fun to watch.