Randy Holt

Regardless of what curveballs the impending labor negotiations throw at Major League Baseball's organizations this winter, the work for the San Diego Padres will look quite similar to what last offseason did: address the depth on offense and assemble a starting staff from virtually nothing. That's tough work on its own. Last winter, A.J. Preller was able to do accomplish most of that agenda without needing to look to his bullpen all that much. The group that worked in relief in 2026 was one that had been in place for a while; Even through various injuries, including those to Jason Adam & Jeremiah Estrada, the team was able to keep things in-house when it came to the relief corps. It stands to reason that, unfortunately, that will change in a rather significant way this winter. Adrian Morejon is a free agent. The team could sign him to a new (massive) contract to keep him in the seventh and eighth inning. They could part with another arm to create the necessary roster and budget space. But the most realistic scenario sees Morejon throwing baseballs for a new franchise for the first time in his career next season. That's not only a key arm—which almost understates it, as Morejon was perhaps the most important non-closer in baseball this season—potentially departing, but one of a left-handed variety. That's part of a potential theme here. Among Padres pitchers that were used consistently out of the bullpen, Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui represent the other left-handed names. Peralta's 72.1 innings trailed only Morejon among all Friars relievers while Matsui's 64 frames ranked fifth within the group. Kyle Hart and his 55.1 innings were right behind Matsui in sixth. That's half of the top-six relief arms in terms of volume from the 2026 Padres, and they all have one thing in common: they throw left-handed. Peralta carries a $4.13 million average annual value on a deal that runs through 2027, but he can opt out this winter. Matsui stands to make $6.5 million next season but also possesses the ability to opt out, along with a player option for 2028. Hart, meanwhile, has a club option at $2.5 million for 2027 and can reach free agency ahead of 2028. That's plenty of uncertainty for the team's left-handed relief contingent beyond the one who is actually set to reach free agency without caveats in Morejon. The most likely scenario involving the trio is that Hart has his option exercised. He was good enough in full-time relief last season to merit another look, at worst as a pure middle reliever. Peralta & Matsui will be more interesting; both turned in very solid seasons, including a career-best year from Matsui, but they are also the truest form of middle reliever unlikely to touch leverage. If they don't feel they can out-earn their current deals on the open market, then it's entirely possible that either or both would wind up back in San Diego for next season. Regardless of how that transpires, though, the Padres are going to need to find some leverage help that throws from the left side. The benefit of an elite arm like Morejon is that you not only have a matchup nightmare in the late innings, but one capable of handling either handedness. The Padres, even with the aforementioned trio that could remain intact, have no such arm to fill such a role as a high-leverage lefty. Obviously, this is an organization that has been able to develop late-inning talent. But between the imminent departure of Morejon and the lack of high-leverage experience from the remaining southpaws, Preller will have an item on his to-do list that he didn't need to address last offseason. The Padres were a top-10 team in ERA (3.84), FIP (4.08), and groundball rate (43.8 percent) against left-handed batters in 2026. If that's to continue, certain contingencies may need to be in place to account for not only the potential departure of Morejon, but also Peralta & Matsui. Perhaps the wisest choice is to simply pay Morejon and be done with it, budgetary constraints be damned. But that could limit the team's flexibility elsewhere, which would hurt their chances to improve the parts of the roster that need upgrades the most. View full article

The San Diego Padres had the league's best bullpen in 2026. There's an argument to be made that they were always destined to have the league's best bullpen in 2026. While the prophecy itself did come true this season, it didn't prove to be a saving grace following the team's quick ouster in the National League Division Series. Which means it's time to reevaluate. The 8.9 fWAR accumulated by Padres relievers was tops in the sport, followed by Boston's group at 8.0. Their 3.53 ERA ranked fifth, their 3.64 FIP sat second, and their 24.7 percent strikeout rate ranked fourth. Additionally, few teams were as adept at getting opposing hitters to make groundball contact as the Padres, with their 46.2 GB% ranking third. One issue? The 683.2 innings logged by relievers was the fourth-most in baseball. Within those 683.2 innings are the workloads of a few primary names. Adrian Morejon threw 86 innings, Wandy Peralta was in action for 72.1, and Bradgley Rodríguez & Mason Miller each tossed 70. That's roughly 44 percent of relief innings being covered by four arms, including three of the team's highest-leverage relievers. Some of that is due to injury, including multiple IL stints for Jason Adam & Jeremiah Estrada. The rest, though, is due to the roster's composition that always put the onus on the relievers to cover for a starting staff shakily held together for the first three quarters of the season. That use caught up to them by the time the NLDS hit. While their overall 2.75 ERA was reasonable, they carried a 4.75 xERA (5.17 xFIP) and a mere 16.5 percent strikeout rate. That reliance forced Mason Miller into a second inning of work in Game 2 (one which he was unable to close out), saw Morejon unavailable in the latter portion of the series, and generally left an already overworked group navigating consistent traffic in a way that they were unaccustomed to throughout the regular season. Even with the potential departure of Morejon in free agency, the Padres still sport a collection of upper-percentile relievers in their bullpen in the form of Miller, Rodríguez, and Estrada. While there are some left-handed complications that could arise in the form of a Peralta opt-out, a Yuki Matsui opt-out, and a Kyle Hart club option, the pitching staff is still shaped around the robust nature of their relief corps. The starting rotation, though, will enter the offseason with much the same questions as it possessed for the majority of 2026. With trade deadline acquisitions Robbie Ray & Casey Mize set to hit free agency (while not carrying much re-sign appeal), Walker Buehler poised to do the same, and Michael King holding a player option—to say nothing of whether the team will retain Nick Pivetta or what Joe Musgrove's starting status will be—the rotation may actually find itself in worse shape than where it was early in 2026. Which means it could be high time for the Padres to explore moving at least one of their high-leverage relievers in the name of addressing their starting pitching. The most obvious factor in this is Miller. He'd fetch the largest package and, as such, the highest upside for a return that features a starting pitcher. Team control would also likely be a factor there too. Is there a world where the Padres trade Miller to address their rotation and re-sign Morejon for ninth-inning work? It shouldn't be a far-fetched idea. Even if it's not Miller, the Padres may still be able to find commensurate trade value for their best bullpen arms. The offseason leaves us with plenty of time to explore such options. What should be clear to A.J. Preller, though, is that a bullpen-forward pitching staff gets you through the regular season, but the taxing of such arms does nothing for you once October hits. A good rotation, even one purely built to survive the 162-game onslaught of regular-season ball, would go a long way toward keeping the Padres' bullpen fresh for the most important part of the calendar. View full article

There wasn't anything particularly impressive about the San Diego Padres as a defensive team in 2025. As a collective, they ranked just 19th in Fielding Run Value (-10) and Outs Above Average (-7), and 14th in Defensive Runs Saved (+28). So, depending on your metric of choice, they were either almost precisely in the middle of the pack or comfortable below average. Only one player from last year's iteration of the Friars was genuinely good on either side of the metric spectrum, with Fernando Tatis Jr. sitting at +8 OAA & +15 DRS. Xander Bogaerts, good by OAA (+7), was bad on the DRS side (-4) while everyone else lingered closer to either end of the average threshold. Yet, there was a significant shift for the Padres in 2026. This year's iteration of the team wasn't just improved defensively, but a legitimately elite squad in matters of their glove work. Their +37 FRV ranked fourth, their +19 OAA sat ninth, and they finished 12th in DRS (+29). That's a far cry from where they landed on the board the previous season. It's not an especially complicated formula in what allowed them to improve, either. The most obvious element of said formula comes in the form of Ty France. The longtime journeyman didn't just earn a bench job on a minor-league deal out of camp, but quickly secured the first base position for almost the entirety of 2026. Much of that was on the strength of his bat, but his glove might have just been more responsible considering what it brought to the position itself and how that permeated throughout the rest of the infield dirt. France posted +7 OAA for the season, a number which trailed only Atlanta's Matt Olson at the first base position. Statcast's newly-available first base receiving metric also graded him as above average in every facet of receiving with the obvious exception of high throws (such is the life of a short king). His work earned him acknowledgement as a Gold Glove finalist for 2026, one of two Padres to receive such recognition. Manny Machado also demonstrated marked improvement off a 2025 season that had some questioning his long-term viability at third base as he continues to age. After a below-average defensive year by each of OAA & FRV, Machado rebounded to well above the average threshold in each (+11 OAA, +8 FRV). Xander Bogaerts continued his trend of having his defense prop up his value as well, going for +2 OAA & +4 FRV. It wasn't just the infield plying their trade successfully, either. While Jackson Merrill & Tatis represented the quality defenders on the outfield grass, their counterpart in left field was left wanting in 2025 as the Padres were below average in each of the three primary defensive metrics last season. That was primarily due to the bulk of the work being handled by the poorly graded combination of Gavin Sheets & Ramón Laureano. The team didn't drastically improve, but they were better in each of the three main defensive categories, especially as Dustin Harris turned in positive marks in more than 100 innings down the stretch. Having Freddy Fermin, the team's other Gold Glove finalist, behind the plate certainly played its role as well. While Fermin's offense led to his ouster as the team's starting backstop by year's end, he still turned in strong grades that weren't just above average in each facet of catcher defense—framing, blocking, and throwing—but landed him in the top seven or eight at the position no matter how you slice it. Again, the team-wide defensive improvement wasn't simply a concentrated effort, but one that manifested as the team worked to construct its bench. Given Ty France's free-agent status, Freddy Fermin's trade status, and the lack of clarity around left field next season, it's unclear whether the Padres will be able to maintain this improvement heading into 2027. But the where and the how of the defensive gains that unfolded in 2026 aren't any sort of mystery that the team will need to work hard to solve. View full article

Jake Cronenworth was a breakout member of the San Diego Padres back in 2021. He signed a seven-year extension in 2023. And in each year that has followed, it feels as if there's been something disappointing embedded somewhere on stat line. The 2026 campaign, however, was much more overt in its demonstration of his struggles. One of the things that the Padres have been forced to accept since 2021 is that the power Cronenworth demonstrated that year (21 homers, .194 ISO) clearly served as the outlier. Nevertheless, he's been able to maintain value in the form of his plate approach reflected both in his walk rate and his ability to create contact. The 2026 season, though, tamped his production in those areas to new lows. Those depths, though, can largely be attributed to one inflection point. On April 18, Cronenworth took a fastball to the jaw. He was cleared from concussion protocol and continued playing up until May 4, a stretch wherein he mustered only four hits across more than 30 plate appearances. Once it was established that he was playing through those symptoms, he landed on the injured list for almost two full months. At that point, his slash sat at just .144/.272/.196 (45 wRC+). As such, the majority of that early season stretch can be attributed almost entirely to the concussion symptoms. For the remainder of the season, Cronenworth was varying shades of fine. His slash from his July 2 return through the end of the year read .250/.320/.364 (96 wRC+). His .114 ISO was low even by his standards, but the more noticeable aspects of his game were in much more lopsided strikeout (24.2 percent) and walk (7.9 percent) rates than those to which we've become accustomed from him. In terms of the whole picture, Cronenworth's swing rate was at 45.8 percent. That's his highest since 2023. A 29.0 percent chase rate was the highest of his career, as was a 43.7 percent whiff rate on said chases. His overall whiff rate, at 21.3 percent, also sat atop his career rankings. Whether those are the result of calculated aggression on Cronenworth's part—possible, considering the slumping nature of the Padres' offense upon his return—or the result of never having a genuine opportunity to settle into the season is unknown. Still, there were stretches of positivity for Cronenworth. In the second half of July, he recorded multiple hits in four of seven games. In September, he had multiple hits in five of seven. It's hard to imagine that a player with a keen approach like Cronenworth has lost it altogether, and those brief stretches within an otherwise underwhelming second half of the season indicate that the more level version of him is still in there. Ultimately, it does feel as if we would be best-served to consider Cronenworth's 2026 season a wash. Playing through concussion symptoms for an injury that would eventually cost him multiple months of the season lends itself to entirely unquantifiable factors that could have been at play. Where that impact could actually manifest is something that we can't measure on a stat sheet. Regardless, such a mindset toward his overall production doesn't do anything to settle his roster status moving forward. Cronenworth may have that keen approach at the plate, but he's also been largely unable to parlay it into consistent impact. Would the Padres finally take a long-rumored step toward trading him? Or do they like the patience he offers in the bottom half of the lineup on a mostly reasonable contract too much to actually move on? It's a complicated situation that wasn't made any simpler by an even murkier 2026 season. View full article

Luis Campusano hasn't always had the easiest path to relevance as a member of the San Diego Padres. In 2024, for example, the catcher that had reached as high as third on the team's list of top prospects turned in strong offensive numbers (133 wRC+) but was essentially unplayable behind the plate (-13 Catching Runs). The following year, he was basically an afterthought, earning a meager total of 27 plate appearances with the big-league club (all of which came as either a designated or pinch hitter). Upon the change on the bench in the form of manager Craig Stammen in 2026, though, Campusano received what was thought of as one last chance to stick around. While Freddy Fermin was the assumed starter behind the plate, the team didn't take any real measures toward addressing the position otherwise, leaving Campusano as the backup. With the exception of a broken toe that help him out for most of May and all of June, he was able to make the most of the opportunity. That was most apparent on the offensive side. Production in that sense can be difficult to find from behind the plate, but Campusano's final line on the season read .265/.363/.433, with a .167 ISO and a 127 wRC+. He was particularly impressive upon his return in July wherein he hit .326 with a 156 wRC+. While the batted ball luck waned down the stretch (.229 BABIP in September), he was still able to provide value in the form of a .154 ISO. Of course, none of that was surprising. In his last real action back in 2024, he'd demonstrated plenty of skill at the plate. The concern around whether Campusano could stick was always going to come on the strength of his growth as a catcher. As it turns out, that also manifested in a positive sense this year. In 2024, Campusano posted that -13 Catcher Runs figure. That was the culmination of a -8 for framing, a -3 for blocking, and another -2 for throwing. The framing number put him 84th among catchers that received at least 100 pitches, 89th in blocking, and 81st in throwing among those with at least five steal attempts against. It was all quite bad. The 2026 iteration of Campusano, however, was one that showcased marked improvement across the board. No, he didn't leap up to a suddenly above-average status in each, but he was steady in his development across the various areas. He ultimately landed at -4 Framing Runs, -1 Blocking Runs, and +3 Throwing Runs. Yes, that's still below average in framing, but he got close to average in blocking and comfortably above that threshold in throwing. That's the kind of skill set the Padres can work with from a No. 2 catcher, especially one that provides the kind of offensive upside that Campusano possesses. It seems like it was a season that did enough to secure him a roster spot moving forward. With Ethan Salas likely to grab the starter job for the foreseeable future, the choice of backup could very well come down to Campusano and Freddy Fermin. While Fermin has defensive skills head-and-shoulders above his counterpart, the fact that Campusano left 2026 as basically an average defender is wildly encouraging against the backdrop of his offensive skill set. The blend of the two seems like the more ideal one to keep around, and it's a testament to Campusano's improvement that there's such a strong argument to be made in his favor considering where he stood just one year ago. View full article

At this point, there's very little mystery around Adrian Morejon. But given his standing within the San Diego Padres organization ahead of the 2026 season, there was never supposed to be. With Mason Miller set up for ninth-inning duty at the onset of the campaign, Morejon was expected to enter the season as their most important non-closer reliever. Even for a bullpen-forward pitching staff, his skill set had evolved over the last trio of seasons to earn such a status. A former starting pitcher that faced injury woes early in his career, Morejon's breakout came in 2024. That year, he posted a 2.83 ERA, a 26.1 percent strikeout rate, and a 7.7 percent walk rate across a career-high 60 appearances. He followed that up with more volume (75 appearances), fewer strikeouts (24.5 percent) but fewer walks (5.9 percent), and better run prevention (2.08 ERA) in 2025. The 2026 season, however, represented a shift both in role and in performance for Morejon. The most notable thing about the last three seasons is how he's been deployed. In 2024, Morejon was appearing in games as early as the fourth inning with much of his work being concentrated in the sixth or seventh. The following year was more of the same, primarily deployed in the sixth and seventh with occasional eight-inning stints. This season, though, it was almost exclusively high-leverage work for Morejon. For the first time in his career in 2026, the bulk of Morejon's work came in the eighth inning, with 38 of his 86 total innings serving primarily to set up Miller. Another 27 frames came in the seventh. While there was the odd appearance elsewhere, this is the most defined leverage role we've seen for Morejon in any of the last three seasons, and he took advantage of it. Among the qualified relievers in baseball in 2026, Morejon's 2.8 figure landed him in fourth. That's noteworthy considering the other six names in the top seven were closers. You'd have to scroll down to Brent Headrick's name in eighth place (2.1 fWAR) to find another non-closer in that elite tier of bullpen savants. Speaking of (Baseball) Savant, there's all of this to consider as well: The stuff on its own was, obviously, elite. His fastball velocity sat at its highest point ever with a strikeout rate that also reached a career-best mark. That latter number, at 30.4 percent, ranked 18th among qualifying relievers. But Morejon wasn't the type of reliever solely primed to mow down opposing hitters via the strikeout. There was plenty of that, but when contact was made, it was being driven into the ground. A shift in usage to being more sinker-changeup than sinker-slider resulted in a groundball rate that was five percentage points higher than last year, with the changeup itself contributing to groundball contact more than 77 percent of the time. That blend of skills is what made Morejon the game's most essential non-closer relief pitcher in 2026. The strikeouts were there, but even when they weren't, hitters were still otherwise relatively helpless (especially in front of an improved San Diego defense). It's entirely possible—maybe even likely—that this is the end of the road for Morejon with the Padres. Set to hit free agency, he's going to command closer-level dollars that appear entirely warranted coming off a season like this one. Some team out on the market may even hand him the ninth-inning gig. Regardless of what shape his future may take, though, it's evident that his 2026 season was the kind seldom seen, wherein he contributed closer-level production despite not possessing the title. View full article

There have been times in the last few years where it looked like Fernando Tatis Jr. was going to get back to the form of the superstar the San Diego Padres had in 2021. You know, before the various injuries and the suspension and the early struggles that come naturally with an extended absence from the sport. But in each of those instances, there was something missing. In 2023, Tatis played in 141 games but was unable to reestablish himself as a power threat. His 2021 ISO, for example, was at .328. By comparison, the first full season of return featured a final figure of just .191. Sure, he hit 25 home runs, but there wasn't the broad impact that the team had grown accustomed to seeing prior to the tumultuous 2021-22 stretch. The following year, Tatis got back to the gaps a bit more in the form of a .216 ISO, but hit fewer homers (21) and didn't offer much on the bases (11 steals) while only appearing in 102 games due to a stress reaction in his right leg. Last season was when we started the stardom again; Tatis went for 25 homers and 32 steals and exceeded six fWAR. At the same time, that WAR figure was somewhat propped up by his defense while his offensive output was pillared by his production in the first and last month of the year, including 15 of his home runs. In between, however, there were some mechanical issues that stifled him at the plate, with the hope being that a strong end to the year would put him on track for the first superstar season we'd seen from him in a half-decade in 2026. That didn't happen... at least at first. Tatis endured the worst power outage of his career at the onset of this past season. He didn't hit a home run until May 30, and he didn't hit another until June 10. His ISO in the first month of the season read just .036 followed by a .069 mark in May. As those first balls sailed over the outfield wall, though, the power began to reemerge. From there, Fernando Tatis Jr. was back. From the start of June through the end of the season, the only position player in all of Major League Baseball who recorded a higher fWAR than Tatis in that stretch was Pete Crow-Armstrong, who spent that entire stretch living on another planet. While not on that level of outlier, Tatis paced the rest of the league in fWAR (4.8) while ranking in the top 10 in homers (24), steals (also 24), and wRC+ (152). What is perhaps most encouraging is that his percentile distribution indicates that it wasn't just a matter of a few months, but an entire season in which he actually mashed: While he needed to finalize whatever mechanical adjustments began during his 2025 slog in order to find more elevation, Tatis really did spend the entire season making quality contact and continuing the improvements in contact ability and strikeout avoidance that we saw him make last season. Combined with his usual brand of exceptional defense, which was forced to the keystone on occasion in 2026, it all worked together to catapult him back into the top of the league ranks for position players. Regardless of how things transpired for the Padres or for other members of their "core," the value of this development cannot be overstated. Simply put, it was the most important thing to happen for this franchise in 2026. A superstar capable of turning in a 25-homer, 38-steal season with only a single homer to speak of in the first two months is absolutely capable of even more. That's the player that this franchise built everything around, and as long as he's in form, this is a team that can continue to remain in playoff contention for years to come. View full article

The San Diego Padres had no shortage of good stories in 2026, but the best one might've been the return of Ty France to the organization. A Southern California native that attended San Diego State University and was drafted by the Padres in 2017 before being traded to Seattle in 2020 finally returned to the organization on a minor-league deal prior to spring training. The years in between saw France serve as something of a hired gun, having been moved at consecutive trade deadlines in 2024 and 2025 with offensive results that were largely middling and defensive ones that ascended to Gold Glove heights. The Padres' roster construction at the onset of the season ran into a couple of issues that left France's actual status with the team a bit unclear. For one, they had a number of players who fit at least a somewhat similar profile in that they were corner defenders, whether on the infield or outfield. For another, they simply had a large number of bodies overall, with that volume leaving the potential for France's stay with the organization to be short-lived. Nevertheless, an injury to Sung-Mun Song cleared up a spot and France was able to secure a spot courtesy of a strong spring performance. From there, it was all the way up. Not only did the veteran slugger turn in a strong season that represented his best since that first full year in Seattle back in 2021, he was one of the team's most essential players, as many of their core stars worked through various struggles and others fought through injury. All told, France locked down the first base gig previously thought to be Gavin Sheets' for the taking and turned in a .295/.363/.502 line with a career-high 7.4 percent walk rate and 141 wRC+. There was some batted ball fortune in there, as France went for a .342 BABIP, but good things tend to happen when you sit in the 84th percentile in hard-hit rate (47.4 percent). He was also able to elevate that quality contact, with a 40.9 percent groundball rate that served as his lowest over a full season. So, while one might expect a bit of regression his next time out, it may not be all that severe if that gains he made in quality contact hold up. The defense represents another element that made France such a valuable addition to the Padres. His +7 Outs Above Average were second only to Atlanta's Matt Olson among first basemen, with a Fielding Run Value o+10 that doubled last season's total. His first base receiving, now measurable by OAA, checked in at +5 after being at -3 last year. [The only area in which he wasn't above average was on high throws given his shorter stature for a first baseman.] His reliability with the glove helped the Friars ascend from being a below-average defensive team in 2025 to one of the best defensive teams in the sport this season. All of this would seem to make it an easy call as to whether or not Ty France should return for another season in San Diego in 2027. The defensive component alone carries plenty of value, even if the offensive impact was only occasional. But if France is able to turn in another season remotely close to what he did in 2026, then that's the kind of supplementary piece that this team absolutely needs to keep in place. Of course, that has to come at the right price for an organization that—while now under new ownership—seems to be constantly up against some sort of budget threshold. However, I can't imagine that a first baseman that'll be 33 next season will be looking for a contract with many years attached, with the actual value being the far larger sticking point. Regardless, France's 2026 season was, without question, enough to earn him a starting gig in 2027, whether in San Diego or somewhere else. View full article