Greg Spicer

A few weeks ago, Padres fans were celebrating the team’s announcement that they weren’t planning to shed salary for the 2026 season. Instead, San Diego intends to operate with a payroll similar to last year’s. That opened the door to all sorts of exciting hypotheticals about what the Padres could do with their remaining money. Since then, San Diego has made two free-agent moves that put the 2026 payroll at $219 million - just $2 million less than the 2025 figure: re-signing star pitcher Michael King (3 years / $75 million) and adding Japanese talent Sung-Mon Song (4 years / $15 million). Based on the idea of maintaining a similar payroll, it looks like general manager AJ Preller has about $2 million left to spend. The roster still needs at least one more lefty starter and some offensive reinforcements. If the Padres want to fill every hole, ownership will probably have to go over last year’s number - especially if they plan to pursue a big-name southpaw free agent like Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez. That said, Preller still has options. There are affordable players available that could fill at least one gap with the remaining $2 million. San Diego can also use the trade market to reallocate bad contracts and farm system assets to add talent without increasing payroll. The prospect depth is as thin as ever, but it doesn’t look like Preller is starting a rebuild, so we can assume he’ll operate the same way he always has: without regard for the farm’s strength. I’m not saying I support that strategy, but it’s the realistic outlook. As long as Preller is trying to compete, the farm system will be used to improve the MLB roster. Budget-Friendly Fillers Assuming the front office doesn’t shell out the cash needed for Valdez or Suárez, their best bet is finding a cheap lefty starter in free agency and using trade assets to retool the lineup. They also have JP Sears under contract, so they could test their luck with Sears plus another arm and see if one of them clicks. This role could be filled by several available pitchers, but these would be my top options. Martin Pérez The former Padre pitched very well during his half-season in San Diego in 2024, so a return would make sense. He was an All-Star in 2022 and posted a 3.54 ERA / 4.90 FIP in 56 innings with the White Sox last season. Patrick Corbin It’s been a rough stretch for Corbin since his championship run in Washington, but he still brings experience, health, and innings - all things the Padres lack. He’s also due for a year where the BABIP luck falls his way. He’s thrown 150+ innings every season since the 2020 Covid year and showed signs of life with a 4.40 ERA / 4.25 FIP in 2025. If the Padres decide to spend more on pitching than those two options, Preller may instead look for cheap offensive help. If that’s the route, here are a few possibilities. Justin Turner This will be unpopular, given Turner’s rough year with the Cubs and his status as a former Dodger. Still, he’ll be cheap and fits the lineup if money is tight. He posted a 112 wRC+ against lefties in 2025 and could platoon effectively with Gavin Sheets. Ty France I know these names aren’t mouthwatering, but they offer cost-effective upside. The 2022 All-Star should still have some production left. He hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100 in the past two seasons, but when he’s right, he mashes lefties. He’d be another solid bench bat to pair with Sheets. Trade Opportunities Some players on the Padres’ roster simply aren’t playing up to their contracts. If the team genuinely wants to compete, they’ll need to use assets to move off these deals and redirect that money toward upgrades. They should avoid trading budget-friendly talent like Jackson Merrill and Mason Miller. Superstars Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. also project as strong values on sub-$30 million contracts, so I wouldn’t move them either. Xander Bogaerts This deal just hasn’t worked. Bogaerts will be making $25 million annually through 2032, and if Preller can find a way to move him, he should take it. A team like the Yankees could be tempted, given how terrible Anthony Volpe has been. Cover some of the money and include a top-five prospect to get bullpen depth in return. Finding a suitor would be difficult, but this is the clearest path to opening up payroll space. Yu Darvish Another complicated situation. Darvish won’t pitch in 2026 and isn’t particularly appealing to other teams, but perhaps a buyout could be structured to free up some money. He’s making $16 million this year and won’t even have a chance to bounce back. Getting Darvish off the books would require a sacrifice from ownership, but it would create so much more flexibility. Yuki Matsui Despite being one of the weaker arms in the bullpen, Matsui is one of the highest-paid relievers on the staff. His $6 million contract will only become more expensive over time, and it’s hard to project his future production. It’s not a franchise-altering move like shedding Bogaerts or Darvish, but the Padres could likely find a team willing to take on his full contract and get something in return. That freed-up money could help fill another hole or open additional trade avenues. The Bottom Line The best part of San Diego’s complicated financial situation is that they don’t have any truly outrageous contracts (outside of Bogaerts). Machado and Tatis should both earn their salaries, and none of the starters are tied to disastrous deals. Instead, the payroll is spread across the roster. There isn’t a clear path to financial freedom in San Diego, but one thing is certain: Preller has options. View full article

With the addition of KBO star Sung Mun Song and the re-signing of Michael King, it appears Padres general manager AJ Preller has finally come out of hibernation. Granted, he never actually went quiet, but Padres fans have grown accustomed to high-activity offseasons, and this year’s break has been quieter than usual in San Diego. One of the lingering rumors surrounding the Padres’ activity is that Preller has been listening to offers on superstar closer Mason Miller. Recently acquired at the 2025 deadline, Miller was dominant in San Diego last season, and trading him would be a huge mistake. Here’s what the 27-year-old produced in 2025: 61 2/3 Innings Pitched 10 Holds 22 Saves 2.63 ERA 2.56 xERA 2.23 FIP 2.27 xFIP 44.4% K-rate 12% BB-rate 2.0 FanGraphs WAR Regardless of the approach the Padres take this offseason, there is no reason to trade Miller. Not only is he an incredible player, but his age, contract, and skill set also make him a cornerstone for any organizational direction. Let’s say Preller isn’t able to execute any big trades or free-agent signings and instead decides to rebuild or retool. Miller should still, absolutely, be part of the future vision. In July, they traded the No. 3 overall prospect, Leo De Vries, along with other talent to acquire him. It’s unlikely they will find another team willing to offer a similar package. Trading Miller for a lesser return would mean cutting “losses” on not winning the championship last season, which is an unnecessary measure. If they decide to retool, Miller can be the anchor of the bullpen. He will be cost-efficient until he enters free agency in 2030, and keeping him as closer would allow the Padres to focus on other areas of the team. I assume a retool would include a shift in what the Padres are built around. Over the last few seasons, San Diego’s strongest dimension has been its bullpen. They finished top-three in FIP in both 2024 and 2025, while leading MLB with a 3.06 ERA last season. If they retool, they should let Miller carry the back-end load and throw 70+ innings at a cheap price, then use their other assets to build a more reliable lineup and starting staff. I find it unlikely they take it a step further and begin a full-on rebuild, especially given their two recent signings. However, if they did choose that route, they would be better off taking a shot at Miller becoming a starter. As I detailed after they acquired him at the deadline, Miller can be an elite starting pitcher. If he takes on that role and performs well, teams would be even more attracted to him, potentially allowing the Padres to receive greater value in a later trade. Now, if San Diego still hopes to compete for the NL West - let alone a championship - Miller should be a key piece of that plan. The stats speak for themselves, and there’s no indication his talent is going anywhere. His fastball averaged a career-high 101.2 mph last season, and although its Statcast run value was a mediocre +1 (down from a +11 in 2024), batters hit it to just a .171 xBA. The lower run value of the heater was likely due to opponents’ unsustainable 49.1% hard-hit rate against it in 2025. No advanced metrics project that dips to hold, and opposing hitters ultimately stopped hammering it once he got to San Diego. The issue stemmed from a short-lived early-season slump in Oakland. In San Diego, he produced: 23.1 IP 0.77 ERA 1.12 FIP 1.09 xFIP Along with his famous fastball, Miller’s slider is becoming the most dangerous off-speed pitch in baseball. As described above, teams were clearly sitting on his fastball last season. Instead of forcing the issue, Miller leaned into his breaking stuff. He threw his slider a career-high 46% of the time in 2025 at 87.8 mph - a 12.5 mph difference from his fastball. Production-wise, he was rewarded with a +16 run value, which sits in the top first percentile among all pitches in baseball, along with a 54.6% whiff rate. In a year where batters effectively squared up his fastball, Miller proved that opposing lineups will have to keep picking their poison - and even if sitting on one pitch works, he will still find ways to get you out. The production and electricity are undeniable. Still, it could be argued that Miller should be traded to help bolster other parts of the roster. That’s where you have to look at rival teams and evaluate what Preller has to do to build a competitive club. There’s no need to look further than the Los Angeles Dodgers: The defending two-time champions and a division rival. San Diego is a juggernaut in spending, but, like all teams, it operates with just a fraction of the Dodgers’ billion-dollar payroll. If the Padres are going to hold their own against Los Angeles, they need to find ways to acquire equal talent at a more affordable price. Shohei Ohtani is a unicorn who can’t be matched, but superstars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado can, both financially and production-wise, match the Mookie Betts/Freddie Freeman duo. The pitching staff still needs some work, but if King and Joe Musgrove are healthy and Preller adds one more starter, they should have enough depth to throw a quality arm in every playoff game. As for the bullpen, the Dodgers just invested in All-Star closer Edwin Díaz for the next three seasons, paying him nearly $70 million. Keeping Miller as a closer is the only way San Diego can match the Dodgers’ newly acquired bullpen firepower - at a cost of at least $20 million less per season. With their former All-Star closer Robert Suarez gone to Atlanta this offseason, and other question marks surrounding the bullpen, the Padres should bank on Miller as the foundation of their pitching staff. He clearly has the production, talent, and potential to do so. Once that foundation is established, they can turn their focus toward improving an inconsistent lineup and starting rotation. View full article

San Diego Padres chairman John Seidler has stated that the team will continue its willingness to pay over $200 million in total salaries for 2026. That means San Diego has at least another $30 million to spend this offseason, which could lead to some high-impact additions. One name that came up during the Winter Meetings is Toronto Blue Jays starter José Berríos. The two-time All-Star signed a 7-year, $131 million extension with Toronto in 2021 and now, ironically, could end up swapping jerseys with the Jays’ newest starter, Dylan Cease. Berríos would give San Diego a reliable, cheaper, and easier commitment than Cease, while still offering strong production. He’s on the trading block after a slightly down regular season followed by an incredible postseason run in Toronto... all while Berrios was injured (he didn't pitch in the playoffs). His 4.14 ERA last year is a bit high, but overall, he’s been very solid across his last three seasons: 548.0 IP 3.79 ERA 4.68 xERA 4.44 FIP 4.22 xFIP 21% K-rate 7.1% BB-rate The one glaring negative on Berríos’s résumé is that his results often outperform his expected metrics. Some might view him as an “accident waiting to happen.” But expected metrics aren’t perfect predictors, and Berríos has consistently proven he can outperform them. Every season of his career, his ERA/xERA and FIP/xFIP have been within 0.75 runs of each other — usually within 0.3. The variance stems from his skillset. Projected metrics favor high-velocity, high-strikeout pitchers that keep runners off base. Berríos, who throws a low-90s fastball, instead relies on a five-pitch mix and a high-movement arsenal to work through lineups. These types of pitchers don’t always get love from expected stats. The real red flags appear when a pitcher has these discrepancies and low velocity, a limited arsenal, and no go-to pitch. Berríos, however, has a deep repertoire led by a sinker that has consistently ranked among the best pitches in baseball via Statcast. The theme of my Padres rotation coverage this offseason has been urging the team to find stability. That’s exactly what Berríos offers. His ceiling may not match someone like Cease — who boasts elite strikeout rates and sub-4.00 expected metrics — but his floor is much higher. He also brings durability to a rotation that badly needs it. With Cease gone, Nick Pivetta is the only remaining starter who was a healthy mainstay in 2025. Berríos has thrown at least 165 innings in seven of his ten career seasons; the exceptions were the shortened 2020 season and his rookie years in 2016-17. Along with durability, Berríos brings consistency. Since his 2016 debut, he’s only had one truly poor season: a 2023 campaign with a 5.23 ERA and 4.55 FIP. Even that year isn’t too concerning, as he faced the highest BABIP of his career (.328), meaning he was incredibly unlucky. As long as his luck normalizes, Berríos performs. After a solid yet underwhelming 2025, he will either continue a slight decline or remind MLB that he’s an All-Star caliber arm. If he wants to fully bounce back, he’ll need to regain dominance with his sinker and slurve. His sinker, historically his most reliable pitch, posted just a +2 run value last season. That’s still good relative to the league, just not up to his usual standards given its peak of +15 in 2021. As for the slurve, there’s work to be done. He threw it a career-low 26% of the time in 2024, and it produced a rough -5 run value. Still, these issues feel fixable in San Diego with pitching coach Ruben Niebla leading the way. There’s no statistical indication that either pitch is losing effectiveness. At 92.2 mph (sinker) and 82.5 mph (slurve), both pitches are maintaining their velocity. He also threw his sinker a career-high 33.6% of the time last year, so hitters may have begun sitting on it more often. Meanwhile, his breaking-ball spin rate remained above 2,350 RPM — consistent with his career norms — and still generated a 33.3% whiff rate. There’s no sign of physical decline, and the 2025 results are a small sample. As recently as 2024, his sinker had a +8 run value, and in 2023, his slurve posted +5. He’s still got great raw stuff. Berríos brings value everywhere, but what makes the Padres an especially good fit (beyond their need for stability), is their history of working well with pitchers of his archetype. Randy Vásquez, another sinker-reliant arm who excelled for San Diego in 2025, saw his sinker improve from a -8 run value in 2024 to +11 in 2025. Niebla could unlock similar improvements from Berríos. There’s also free agent Michael King, who the Padres would ideally re-sign alongside adding Berríos. King was already developed when he arrived from New York, but he’s another example of a sinker-heavy pitcher thriving in San Diego. He uses his 92.7 mph sinker 30% of the time, paired with an 82.2 mph sweeper at a 19% usage rate. He, Berrios, and Pivetta would form a talented trio atop the rotation. It wouldn’t be the most diverse pitching group, but adding Berríos would give the Padres financial flexibility while investing in what they do best (dominating with sinkers) and addressing their biggest pitching issue: consistency. View full article

San Diego Padres ownership has been in shambles all offseason. That’s its own saga, but long story short, Padres fans are worried that their time as one of baseball’s highest-spending organizations may be over. With over $40 million coming off the books and no rumored big moves, it looked like the beginning of a slow decline back to the pre-COVID days of $80-110 million dollar rosters. No more $200+ million teams and no more superstar paydays. That was until Padres Chairman John Seidler said the team aims to keep next year’s payroll similar to the 2025 figure of $221 million. There is hope! As of now, San Diego has just over $160 million allocated for next season. After arbitration, assuming the Padres retain all their notable players (including Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon), that number will be around $190 million. That gives the Padres somewhere in the ballpark of $30 million to work with. With a highly active general manager, AJ Preller, at the helm and $30 million available, this offseason just got very exciting for San Diego. Here’s what we know: The Padres let go of Dylan Cease. I’d assume that means they don’t want to spend this money recklessly. Cease projects to be great, but he hasn’t exactly been consistent across his career. They also probably won’t retain Luis Arraez, another high-risk talent given his poor 2025 season. Then there’s Michael King, an injury prone, high-ceiling option whom the Padres are at least open to keeping. The losses of Cease and Arraez are hard to evaluate. Cease is an expensive, metric-supported arm, while Arraez is an anti-metric, cheaper bat. You can’t use those players to predict the Padres’ direction, other than to say they want to move on from 2025 underperformers. So, how can they spend their money? Add a Premier Starter San Diego’s rotation is far from complete, especially if they can’t retain King. The first name that comes to mind is, ironically, José Berríos. The 2025 Blue Jays Opening Day starter finds himself the odd man out of Toronto’s 2026 staff and could swap places with Cease. His $20 million salary in 2026 fits the Padres’ books nicely, and he brings much-needed stability. Berríos has never thrown fewer than 150 innings in a season (besides 2020) and has never posted a FIP over five. Or, they could aim higher and trade for Tarik Skubal. Every team wants him — he’s the best pitcher in baseball. That would require conversations with ownership about extending him, but Preller loves shock value. One of the weakest points of the 2025 staff was the lack of left-handers. They tried to fix it at the deadline with Nestor Cortes and JP Sears, but both struggled. Splurging on someone like Framber Valdez would also be worth it. If he’s unavailable, Ranger Suárez is another strong option who’s been dominant in both the regular season and postseason for the Phillies. Bring Back Michael King This would cost similar money to adding Berríos (around $20 million annually). Preller could weigh the pros and cons of each pitcher, or shed around $10 million in a Berríos trade and get both. The rotation certainly has room, which is why I prefer the latter. Simply retaining King and entering 2026 at roughly $210 million with a few filler players won’t get the job done. Retaining King and adding another arm is what would give the Padres a legitimately dangerous rotation: Nick Pivetta José Berríos or Other Michael King Joe Musgrove Randy Vásquez That's not necessarily equivalent to the Dodgers' world-beating group, but it is a competitive quintet with some depth. Carefully Add to the Infield With Arraez and Ryan O’Hearn entering free agency, the Padres have a huge hole in their lineup. They need more power than Arraez provided and real reinforcements at first base and designated hitter. Signing a pure platoon bat like Paul Goldschmidt or Rhys Hoskins would save money, but neither projects to perform all that well in 2026. That money would be better spent moving on from platooning altogether and adding everyday bats. Retaining O’Hearn could save salary while giving them a full-time first baseman, but he’s reportedly in talks with smaller-market teams like the Pirates and White Sox. It’s best to let those organizations overpay for mid-tier players and aim higher. A big name like Pete Alonso would solve the issue entirely. If not him, signing someone like JT Realmuto (as a catcher/DH) or trading for Yandy Díaz/Vinnie Pasquantino would fit nicely. The key is avoiding a platoon situation where no one finds their footing. We aren’t the Rays, after all. Whether through a blockbuster trade or savvy free-agent signings, San Diego has salary room to work with and clear areas requiring improvement. What do you think the Padres should do with their $30 million? Sounds off in the comments below! View full article

The Winter Meetings are upon us, and that means rumor season is in full swing. This offseason, 2019 All-Star Lucas Giolito is a free agent, and with starting pitching at a premium, he should have multiple suitors. That said, the San Diego Padres should avoid making a deal. Despite his success in 2025, there just isn’t enough underlying metric support to justify a multi-year, multi-million-dollar contract. I won’t deny that he had a surprisingly productive year. Giolito was paid what I thought was an excessive $19 million salary and helped the Boston Red Sox return to the postseason. 2025 Stats 26 Starts 145 IP 3.41 ERA 4.17 FIP 19.7% K-Rate 9.1% BB-Rate 2.0 fWAR Because of this strong campaign, he’s projected to sign a multi-year deal worth over $15 million annually. I don’t see that contract aging well for most teams — especially the Padres. The health of San Diego’s rotation is a bone I’ve picked all offseason, and I’ll continue to do so. Only Nick Pivetta and Dylan Cease surpassed 150 innings, and the only other 100+ inning arm was Randy Vasquez at 133 2/3 frames. The remaining spots went to an unsuccessful mix of unhealthy arms (Yu Darvish, Michael King) and struggling lefties (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). This approach isn’t viable, and Giolito — who missed the entire 2024 season with a torn UCL and the end of 2025 plus the playoffs with a right elbow injury — is a major injury risk. Cease, who had five consecutive seasons of 30+ starts, has signed with Toronto, so the Padres should prioritize rebounding with another durable arm. Along with health concerns, the underlying metrics don’t look great. Coming from someone who doesn’t believe these stats tell the full story, there’s still reason for skepticism. The excellent ERA and respectable FIP from 2025 likely won’t continue given their “expected” counterparts from FanGraphs. His 2025 xERA was 4.99, and his xFIP was 4.59. He also benefited from a tame .273 BABIP. If that number climbs closer to .300, his production will dip. Beyond health, another large concern for the Padres’ staff is sustainable success. Cease is gone, so the Padres won’t reap the rewards of navigating his historically unlucky 2025 (as discussed in my FA outlook). Aside from him, there aren’t any Padres starters who project to improve in 2026. Pivetta should remain reliable, but at his age it’s hard to sustain that level of breakout. The other main starter, Vasquez, was heavily reliant on “unsustainable success.” He’s another an example of someone whose underlying numbers I trust. As discussed in my pro-Vasquez article, he relies on a six-pitch mix, has an incredible sinker, and excels with runners on base. Giolito shares the clutch-pitching ability (76.7 LOB%), but lacks the arsenal depth and go-to pitch needed for me to ignore his underlying metrics. Speaking of dominant pitches, that’s another area of concern for Giolito’s outlook. As a Chicagoan, I vividly remember the dominance of Giolito’s changeup during his time with the White Sox. He actually had two: a normal low-80s version that fell out of the zone as hitters lunged forward, and what might be my favorite pitch ever; a parachute changeup. It would come in high, look like a missed fastball, then float back into the zone for a strike. A risky, dominant pitch. It even got him a strikeout on Cody Bellinger in the 2019 All-Star Game. Clearly, it’s with great sadness that I write about the falloff of one of my favorite pitchers and pitches. Unfortunately, the numbers haven’t held. His changeup peaked with a +16 Statcast run value in 2019 and remained excellent through 2021. Since then, it’s been stuck at +0 for three straight seasons. One positive sign is that his fastball value (+5) returned above average results for the first time since 2020. It’s hard to see that continuing, though, as it averages just 93.3 mph (1.7 mph below league average), and he throws it 48% of the time. It is possible for a pitcher with nasty off-speed stuff to successfully rely on a slower fastball, but with only two other pitches (a +1 slider and a +0 changeup), there isn’t much preventing hitters from sitting on the nearly half of Giolito’s pitches that are fastballs. To summarize, just look at the Statcast breakdown of his 2025 season (some numbers vary from FanGraphs because they calculate things differently): 5.00 xERA (Bottom 13th Percentile) .267 xBA (Bottom 15th Percentile) 93.3 Fastball MPH (Bottom 32nd Percentile) 90.3 Avg Exit Velo (Bottom 22nd Percentile) 26.7% Chase Rate (Bottom 30th Percentile) 19.7% K-Rate (Bottom 28th Percentile) 9.1% BB-Rate (Bottom 30th Percentile) 9.0% Barrel Rate (Bottom 39th Percentile) 41.1% Hard Hit Rate (Bottom 45th Percentile) While I’m glad to see Giolito earn himself another big payday, the Padres, and any team needing a reliable starter, should look elsewhere in free agency. View full article

The San Diego Padres need Joe Musgrove to perform. Last year’s rotation was already an island of misfit toys, and things are only getting more complicated in 2026. Nick Pivetta will return, but can the 32-year-old breakout star be trusted to sustain his career-high output from last season? No one knows where Dylan Cease or Michael King will be pitching, but it’s unlikely San Diego keeps both. Ownership is in shambles and, unlike years past, can’t be counted on to save the day with a big signing or trade. (Yes, I’ll still be delusional and pray for Tarik Skubal like every other fanbase.) The brightest glimmer of hope for the Padres’ staff is the return of Joe Musgrove. He’s dealt with many injuries since 2023: Spring training fractured toe Shoulder capsule issue Bone spur Torn ulnar collateral ligament Tommy John surgery Returning to dominance won’t be easy, but with modern treatment plans and his history of success, he can still be a key piece of the rotation. Before the injuries, he was one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball. His last two fully healthy seasons, 2021 and 2022, included more than 180 innings each. During that stretch, he logged: 362 2/3 IP 3.06 ERA 3.64 FIP 3.58 xERA 26% strikeout rate 6.5% walk rate The most predictable drop-off will be in his workload. It’s unlikely he returns to the innings-eater he was a few seasons ago. Musgrove has already spoken about “easing” himself back into action, and that’s okay. In 2025, only two Padres starters threw more than 140 innings (Pivetta and Cease), and only one other reached 100 (Randy Vásquez). King was injured, Darvish was injured, and the Nestor Cortes/JP Sears deadline duo was notably unproductive. Despite that, the Padres still won 90 games and fielded a respectable pitching staff. Essentially, the bar for Musgrove to come in and be an upgrade is fairly low. The focus has to be on avoiding re-injury and making the innings he does throw as productive as possible. So, what can we expect? Musgrove has shown he can succeed even when he’s not fully healthy. Coming back from Tommy John surgery is a different level of adversity, but his 2023 and 2024 seasons are encouraging. Even though he never surpassed 100 innings in either year, he still produced: 3.47 ERA 3.74 FIP 3.69 xERA 24.5% strikeout rate 5.4% walk rate There’s clearly reason to believe in Musgrove’s resilience. Also, he isn’t a fastball-dependent pitcher. That’s important because many pitchers who get Tommy John struggle to survive the velocity drop. Musgrove throws his fastball just 25% of the time with an average velocity of 93 mph (1.7 mph below average). His fastball velocity hasn’t been above the 34th percentile since 2021, when it sat in the 45th. What will affect him more is a potential decline in spin rate. Musgrove has been in the 98th or 99th percentile in fastball spin since 2021. Compare that with Jacob deGrom, who missed a similar amount of time after Tommy John surgery and has dealt with his own injury battles. DeGrom dropped about five percentiles in both velocity and spin rate, yet still had a dominant return in 2025. Now, Musgrove isn’t deGrom, but he also isn’t as reliant on power pitching (elite velocity and high-spin off-speed pitches). Instead, he navigates lineups with a five-pitch mix and pinpoint command. Those traits don’t vanish—he’ll just need time to shake off rust. With likely declines in fastball metrics and breaking balls posing higher injury risk, expect Musgrove to lean more on his changeup. He threw it 11.4% of the time in 2023, his highest mark since 2018, and it became his most effective pitch, yielding a 40.6% whiff rate and 22.9% putaway rate. A cutter increase should complement that. The cutter has been one of Musgrove’s most consistent pitches, never posting a negative run value on Statcast. In 2023, the same year he threw more changeups, the cutter had a run value of +7. Shifting away from a fastball/curveball vertical attack and moving toward a horizontal approach with cutters and changeups isn’t just healthier, it’s effective. That said, he can still trust his breaking balls. Unlike fastballs, his curveball and sweeper should remain sharp. Looking at deGrom again—whose 90+ mph slider is one of the most arm-taxing pitches in baseball—he saw no drop in slider velocity or spin in 2025. In fact, he kept his RPM above 2,600, something he rarely did even in his prime. Hopefully, San Diego can use that same magic to keep Musgrove’s breaking pitches spinning. He typically throws his sweeper and curveball around 20% each. Overall, he’ll likely see a decline in velocity that will reduce the fastball’s effectiveness. He’ll also be coming off a long injured-list stint and a difficult surgery. Protecting his health will be the priority, and spinning a heavy load of breaking balls immediately isn’t smart. Still, sports science is stronger than ever, and pitchers like deGrom have been returning from similar injuries. We also know that Musgrove plans to ease back into a full starter workload. With that in mind, here’s my prediction: 2026 Projection 120 IP 3.75 ERA 3.98 FIP 23.8% strikeout rate 5.9% walk rate Pitch Mix 23.5% fastball 18% curveball 22% cutter 20% slider/sweeper 15% changeup 1.5% other It may not be Cy Young-level production, but this output would be a significant upgrade for a rotation in desperate need of stability. View full article

Although the San Diego Padres' 2025 season didn’t end the way the team hoped, many players on the squad had excellent performances, especially in the team's historically-great bullpen. Included in these successes is Adrian Morejon, who enters this offseason with one final year of arbitration eligibility. The southpaw reliever followed up his strong 2024 campaign with one of the best relief seasons in San Diego history. In 2025, Morejon produced: 75 G 73.2 IP (team-high out of the bullpen) 2.08 ERA 2.28 FIP 24.5 K% 5.9 BB% (tied for best among team relievers) 0.24 HR/9 (team-best) 2.2 FanGraph WAR (team-best among relievers) His dominance was game-changing for the Padres bullpen. With fellow star relievers Robert Suarez, Jason Adam and Mason Miller all being righties, Morejon’s lefty arm brought crucial balance to the relief corps. Morejon, 26, is now entering his fourth year of arbitration eligibility as a "Super-Two" player. San Diego has to decide how they are going to handle his contract situation, given that 2026 represents his final year before free agency. Most teams don’t like to reach that point, however. Especially with a premium talent like Morejon, front offices generally prefer to show these players faith and agree to a contract extension. That is where the decision-making comes in. Is this another arbitration year for Morejon, with contract talks being pushed to next offseason, or should the Padres lock up the 2025 All-Star now? On one hand, negotiating a long-term deal this offseason would be a “buy-high” move from general manager A.J. Preller. Pretty much everything went great for Morejon in 2025. On top of his dominant regular season, he was excellent against the Chicago Cubs in the first round of the playoffs: 3 G 4.1 IP 0.00 ERA 2.21 FIP 100% LOB% (Percent of baserunners Left on Base) Only SD Pitcher to record a win in the series If San Diego were to pay up this offseason, it would be a steep price. With that said, Morejon is an investment worth making. First of all, it is a general principle of team morale that players are happier when they are paid for their successes. San Diego should avoid tension at all costs, and the safest way to do that is by extending him. Sometimes, the player and team can agree on one-year contracts to avoid arbitration, or both parties end up comfortable with MLBs arbitration contract; but many times, these negotiations cause tension. This dynamic can lead to players leaving, or worsening performances. Think 2023 Corbin Burnes, 2018 Marcus Stroman, or for relievers, 2018 Dellin Betances. Also, looking at Morejon’s advanced stats, his dominance probably won’t be going anywhere. That’s a good thing for the Padres championship hopes in 2026, but it also means the front office can’t count on a “down year” from Morejon to buy low on. Next year’s price won’t change much, and if anything, could increase. Here are some of Morejon's expected/advanced stats from 2025 that project his continued ascendence. 85.9 Opponent Exit Velocity (Top 2% of MLB) .315 xSLG (Top 5%) .256 xWOBA (Top 3%) 30.7% Opponent Hard Hit Rate (Top 1%) 2.53 xERA (Top 5%) In fact, extending Morejon to a guaranteed contract this winter could end up being a savvy move. San Diego's starting rotation was scrappy in 2025. Nick Pivetta was the only pitcher to start and end the season as a healthy member of the rotation. Rumors are now floating around that superstar reliever Mason Miller (and perhaps even Morejon) could join the rotation in 2026. If he were to end up succeeding as a starter, his price tag would skyrocket. I already broke down Miller’s SP potential when the Padres acquired him in July. For Morejon, those same principles hold true. He has the experience coming into MLB as a starter, with eight outings early in his career showing flashes of potential. As a lefty, he also has the velocity to survive the natural MPH drop that pitchers experience when moving from the bullpen to the rotation; his sinker averaged 97.7 MPH this year, and his slider sat around 87.5 MPH. On top of those factors, the potential for Morejon to add a third high-usage pitch is especially notable. In 2025, 86.3% of his pitches were either sinkers or sliders. Outside of that, he didn’t throw any pitch over 7% of the time. This output isn’t sustainable as a starter, but Morejon has a change-up in his arsenal that is waiting to be fully unleashed. He threw just 66 changeups last season, exclusively against righties. The pitch averaged 90.5 MPH on the year, and was unhittable when used: 6.6% Usage Rate ONE Hit Allowed (Single) .131 xBA .214 xSLG 48.8% Whiff Rate 38.7 Put Away Rate All of these statistics, besides the usage rate, were by far the best of any Morejon pitch. Naturally, there would be some drop-off if he started relying on the changeup more frequently, but with only one hit allowed on 66 attempts, there is a lot of room to work with in terms of keeping the pitch effective—even if it’s not as dominant as 2025. Overall, Morejon has to stay in a Padres uniform, and Preller needs to make that happen without any conflict or tension. Whether that be through cordial arbitration negotiations or a contract extension, he is a vital part of the San Diego pitching staff and should be treated as such. View full article

The San Diego Padres' season ended painfully last week at the hands of the Chicago Cubs. After a low-scoring, back-and-forth series, the Padres were faced with their last chance to stay alive in the ninth inning of game three. Down 3-0, Jackson Merrill got things started with a home run, cutting the deficit to two. Following the leadoff bomb, shortstop Xander Bogaerts stepped up to the plate for one of his biggest at-bats of the season. Bogaerts hit .333 in the series and had a lot of hard contact, so there was hope for a rally. Cubs closer Brad Keller had been excellent all season, but clearly fought jitters trying to close out the series. Bogaerts was able to force a 3-1 count, with all three balls being way off the plate, and the one strike being a slider that barely nicked the zone. With the count in Bogaerts' favor, Keller threw a 96.5 mph fastball that just touched the outside part of the plate. He got the call from the ump, making it a full count. No injustices had happened up to this point, but it was clear that Keller was on thin ice. He was barely getting strike calls, and his misses weren’t close. Keller loaded up a full count fastball for the biggest pitch of the series, but missed a few inches below the TV strike zone. Despite the pitch being way below anyone's idea of a strike, home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn rang Bogaerts up. He and Padres Manager Mike Shildt flipped out, but there was nothing they could do. MLB won’t have challenged strike calls until 2026, making San Diego one of the last victims. Hindsight is 20/20 What makes this moment notable isn’t just a bad call in a close postseason game; it’s what happened after the at-bat. Looking at the rest of the ninth, Brad Keller was still a mess. Let’s pretend the umpire made the correct call and Bogaerts was on first base. Keller then hit the next batter, Ryan O’Hearn, in a two-strike count. That would've put runners on first and second, with nobody out. He then did the same thing to Bryce Johnson, missing badly with a change-up and hitting him in another two-strike count. Now, instead of having runners on first and second with one out, it would be bases loaded with nobody out. After two free bases, Cubs Coach Craig Counsell put in reliever Andrew Kittredge. Facing a new arm, Padres batter Jake Cronenworth hit a dribbling ground ball that resulted in a close out at first base, advancing both runners. Had the bases been loaded, this soft groundout would have easily scored Bogaerts, cutting the lead to one. The new hypothetical situation is runners on second and third, one out, and Freddy Fermin at the plate. Fermin, who ended up being the final out of the Padres' season, smashed a 101.1 MPH line drive to center field. Cubs outfielder Pete Crow Armstrong made the play, sending San Diego home. Had there only been one out, though, this rope would've scored the game-tying run via sacrifice fly. ABS System Breakdown Obviously, if Bogaerts had gotten the walk, the plays after may not have been the same, so it’s not an end-all excuse. You can’t only blame the umpires when the offense was held scoreless through the first eight innings of an elimination game. With that said, baseball is a game that favors pitchers and is built around big moments. There’s nothing worse for fans or players than umpires taking the bat out of a hitter's hands in a crucial situation. Finally, in 2026, MLB is making a change. Next season, MLB will introduce the ABS challenge system. ABS is a combination of technology and rules that allows players to challenge strike calls a few times a game. Implementing this system provides baseball with a more accurate strike zone by reducing the likelihood of incorrect calls having a significant impact on the game. Technologically, MLB will have Hawkeye cameras built in at every stadium to track the location of every pitch. If a player challenges, the system will display the results of the pitch within 15 seconds and indicate how far a pitch was in/out of the strike zone for viewers. Powered by T-Mobile, the ABS is designed to deliver fast, accurate, and precise information on every challenging pitch. Rule-wise, each team will have two challenges per game. If you successfully overturn a call, then you keep your challenges. If you incorrectly challenge a pitch, then you lose a challenge. Only a batter, pitcher, or catcher can choose to review a call, and the decision must be made quickly right after the pitch. MLB has also announced the ABS strike zone for each player. The top of the strike zone will be 53.5% of a player's height, and the bottom will be 27%. Based on these metrics, it’s confirmed that ABS would have overturned the call on Bogaerts. It’s exciting that MLB made the right choice in bringing a challenge system, but this took far too long. MLB wasted time experimenting with full-time robotic umpires, adding challenge systems to non-strike zone calls, and punishing players/coaches for speaking out about the issue. Most fans don’t want to see umpires removed. They make the game unique, but sometimes the difficulty of their jobs creates major issues. That’s why the ABS system is a perfect fit. We achieve greater accuracy for big moments, but we’re not taking away one of the most distinct aspects of our sport. Unfortunately for the Padres, that won’t start until 2026, so we'll never know what could've happened in the bottom of the ninth inning against the Cubs. View full article