San Diego Padres Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Adrian Morejon

Although the San Diego Padres' 2025 season didn’t end the way the team hoped, many players on the squad had excellent performances, especially in the team's historically-great bullpen. Included in these successes is Adrian Morejon, who enters this offseason with one final year of arbitration eligibility.

The southpaw reliever followed up his strong 2024 campaign with one of the best relief seasons in San Diego history. In 2025, Morejon produced: 

• 75 G
• 73.2 IP (team-high out of the bullpen)
• 2.08 ERA
• 2.28 FIP
• 24.5 K%
• 5.9 BB% (tied for best among team relievers)
• 0.24 HR/9 (team-best)
• 2.2 FanGraph WAR (team-best among relievers)

His dominance was game-changing for the Padres bullpen. With fellow star relievers Robert Suarez, Jason Adam and Mason Miller all being righties, Morejon’s lefty arm brought crucial balance to the relief corps. 

Morejon, 26, is now entering his fourth year of arbitration eligibility as a "Super-Two" player. San Diego has to decide how they are going to handle his contract situation, given that 2026 represents his final year before free agency. Most teams don’t like to reach that point, however. Especially with a premium talent like Morejon, front offices generally prefer to show these players faith and agree to a contract extension. 

That is where the decision-making comes in. Is this another arbitration year for Morejon, with contract talks being pushed to next offseason, or should the Padres lock up the 2025 All-Star now?

On one hand, negotiating a long-term deal this offseason would be a “buy-high” move from general manager A.J. Preller. Pretty much everything went great for Morejon in 2025. On top of his dominant regular season, he was excellent against the Chicago Cubs in the first round of the playoffs:

• 3 G
• 4.1 IP
• 0.00 ERA 
• 2.21 FIP
• 100% LOB% (Percent of baserunners Left on Base)
• Only SD Pitcher to record a win in the series

If San Diego were to pay up this offseason, it would be a steep price. With that said, Morejon is an investment worth making. 

First of all, it is a general principle of team morale that players are happier when they are paid for their successes. San Diego should avoid tension at all costs, and the safest way to do that is by extending him. Sometimes, the player and team can agree on one-year contracts to avoid arbitration, or both parties end up comfortable with MLBs arbitration contract; but many times, these negotiations cause tension. This dynamic can lead to players leaving, or worsening performances. 

Think 2023 Corbin Burnes, 2018 Marcus Stroman, or for relievers, 2018 Dellin Betances. 

Also, looking at Morejon’s advanced stats, his dominance probably won’t be going anywhere. That’s a good thing for the Padres championship hopes in 2026, but it also means the front office can’t count on a “down year” from Morejon to buy low on. Next year’s price won’t change much, and if anything, could increase. 

Here are some of Morejon's expected/advanced stats from 2025 that project his continued ascendence.

• 85.9 Opponent Exit Velocity (Top 2% of MLB)
• .315 xSLG (Top 5%)
• .256 xWOBA (Top 3%)
• 30.7% Opponent Hard Hit Rate (Top 1%)
• 2.53 xERA (Top 5%)

In fact, extending Morejon to a guaranteed contract this winter could end up being a savvy move. 

San Diego's starting rotation was scrappy in 2025. Nick Pivetta was the only pitcher to start and end the season as a healthy member of the rotation. Rumors are now floating around that superstar reliever Mason Miller (and perhaps even Morejon) could join the rotation in 2026. If he were to end up succeeding as a starter, his price tag would skyrocket.

I already broke down Miller’s SP potential when the Padres acquired him in July. For Morejon, those same principles hold true. He has the experience coming into MLB as a starter, with eight outings early in his career showing flashes of potential. As a lefty, he also has the velocity to survive the natural MPH drop that pitchers experience when moving from the bullpen to the rotation; his sinker averaged 97.7 MPH this year, and his slider sat around 87.5 MPH.

On top of those factors, the potential for Morejon to add a third high-usage pitch is especially notable. In 2025, 86.3% of his pitches were either sinkers or sliders. Outside of that, he didn’t throw any pitch over 7% of the time. This output isn’t sustainable as a starter, but Morejon has a change-up in his arsenal that is waiting to be fully unleashed. 

He threw just 66 changeups last season, exclusively against righties. The pitch averaged 90.5 MPH on the year, and was unhittable when used:

• 6.6% Usage Rate
• ONE Hit Allowed (Single)
• .131 xBA 
• .214 xSLG
• 48.8% Whiff Rate
• 38.7 Put Away Rate

All of these statistics, besides the usage rate, were by far the best of any Morejon pitch. Naturally, there would be some drop-off if he started relying on the changeup more frequently, but with only one hit allowed on 66 attempts, there is a lot of room to work with in terms of keeping the pitch effective—even if it’s not as dominant as 2025.

Overall, Morejon has to stay in a Padres uniform, and Preller needs to make that happen without any conflict or tension. Whether that be through cordial arbitration negotiations or a contract extension, he is a vital part of the San Diego pitching staff and should be treated as such.