Why San Diego Padres Should Trade for Jose Berrios

San Diego Padres chairman John Seidler has stated that the team will continue its willingness to pay over $200 million in total salaries for 2026. That means San Diego has at least another $30 million to spend this offseason, which could lead to some high-impact additions.

One name that came up during the Winter Meetings is Toronto Blue Jays starter José Berríos. The two-time All-Star signed a 7-year, $131 million extension with Toronto in 2021 and now, ironically, could end up swapping jerseys with the Jays’ newest starter, Dylan Cease.

Berríos would give San Diego a reliable, cheaper, and easier commitment than Cease, while still offering strong production.

He’s on the trading block after a slightly down regular season followed by an incredible postseason run in Toronto... all while Berrios was injured (he didn't pitch in the playoffs). His 4.14 ERA last year is a bit high, but overall, he’s been very solid across his last three seasons:

• 548.0 IP
• 3.79 ERA
• 4.68 xERA
• 4.44 FIP
• 4.22 xFIP
• 21% K-rate
• 7.1% BB-rate

The one glaring negative on Berríos’s résumé is that his results often outperform his expected metrics. Some might view him as an “accident waiting to happen.” But expected metrics aren’t perfect predictors, and Berríos has consistently proven he can outperform them.

Every season of his career, his ERA/xERA and FIP/xFIP have been within 0.75 runs of each other — usually within 0.3. The variance stems from his skillset. Projected metrics favor high-velocity, high-strikeout pitchers that keep runners off base.

Berríos, who throws a low-90s fastball, instead relies on a five-pitch mix and a high-movement arsenal to work through lineups. These types of pitchers don’t always get love from expected stats. The real red flags appear when a pitcher has these discrepancies and low velocity, a limited arsenal, and no go-to pitch.

Berríos, however, has a deep repertoire led by a sinker that has consistently ranked among the best pitches in baseball via Statcast.

The theme of my Padres rotation coverage this offseason has been urging the team to find stability. That’s exactly what Berríos offers. His ceiling may not match someone like Cease — who boasts elite strikeout rates and sub-4.00 expected metrics — but his floor is much higher.

He also brings durability to a rotation that badly needs it. With Cease gone, Nick Pivetta is the only remaining starter who was a healthy mainstay in 2025. Berríos has thrown at least 165 innings in seven of his ten career seasons; the exceptions were the shortened 2020 season and his rookie years in 2016-17.

Along with durability, Berríos brings consistency. Since his 2016 debut, he’s only had one truly poor season: a 2023 campaign with a 5.23 ERA and 4.55 FIP. Even that year isn’t too concerning, as he faced the highest BABIP of his career (.328), meaning he was incredibly unlucky. As long as his luck normalizes, Berríos performs.

After a solid yet underwhelming 2025, he will either continue a slight decline or remind MLB that he’s an All-Star caliber arm. If he wants to fully bounce back, he’ll need to regain dominance with his sinker and slurve.

His sinker, historically his most reliable pitch, posted just a +2 run value last season. That’s still good relative to the league, just not up to his usual standards given its peak of +15 in 2021.

As for the slurve, there’s work to be done. He threw it a career-low 26% of the time in 2024, and it produced a rough -5 run value. Still, these issues feel fixable in San Diego with pitching coach Ruben Niebla leading the way.

There’s no statistical indication that either pitch is losing effectiveness. At 92.2 mph (sinker) and 82.5 mph (slurve), both pitches are maintaining their velocity. He also threw his sinker a career-high 33.6% of the time last year, so hitters may have begun sitting on it more often.

Meanwhile, his breaking-ball spin rate remained above 2,350 RPM — consistent with his career norms — and still generated a 33.3% whiff rate. There’s no sign of physical decline, and the 2025 results are a small sample. As recently as 2024, his sinker had a +8 run value, and in 2023, his slurve posted +5. He’s still got great raw stuff.

Berríos brings value everywhere, but what makes the Padres an especially good fit (beyond their need for stability), is their history of working well with pitchers of his archetype. Randy Vásquez, another sinker-reliant arm who excelled for San Diego in 2025, saw his sinker improve from a -8 run value in 2024 to +11 in 2025. Niebla could unlock similar improvements from Berríos.

There’s also free agent Michael King, who the Padres would ideally re-sign alongside adding Berríos. King was already developed when he arrived from New York, but he’s another example of a sinker-heavy pitcher thriving in San Diego. He uses his 92.7 mph sinker 30% of the time, paired with an 82.2 mph sweeper at a 19% usage rate. He, Berrios, and Pivetta would form a talented trio atop the rotation.

It wouldn’t be the most diverse pitching group, but adding Berríos would give the Padres financial flexibility while investing in what they do best (dominating with sinkers) and addressing their biggest pitching issue: consistency.