Why The Padres Shouldn't Sign Starting Pitcher Lucas Giolito

The Winter Meetings are upon us, and that means rumor season is in full swing. This offseason, 2019 All-Star Lucas Giolito is a free agent, and with starting pitching at a premium, he should have multiple suitors. That said, the San Diego Padres should avoid making a deal. Despite his success in 2025, there just isn’t enough underlying metric support to justify a multi-year, multi-million-dollar contract.

I won’t deny that he had a surprisingly productive year. Giolito was paid what I thought was an excessive $19 million salary and helped the Boston Red Sox return to the postseason. 

2025 Stats
26 Starts
145 IP
3.41 ERA
4.17 FIP
19.7% K-Rate
9.1% BB-Rate
2.0 fWAR

Because of this strong campaign, he’s projected to sign a multi-year deal worth over $15 million annually. I don’t see that contract aging well for most teams — especially the Padres.

The health of San Diego’s rotation is a bone I’ve picked all offseason, and I’ll continue to do so. Only Nick Pivetta and Dylan Cease surpassed 150 innings, and the only other 100+ inning arm was Randy Vasquez at 133 2/3 frames. The remaining spots went to an unsuccessful mix of unhealthy arms (Yu Darvish, Michael King) and struggling lefties (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears).

This approach isn’t viable, and Giolito — who missed the entire 2024 season with a torn UCL and the end of 2025 plus the playoffs with a right elbow injury — is a major injury risk. Cease, who had five consecutive seasons of 30+ starts, has signed with Toronto, so the Padres should prioritize rebounding with another durable arm.

Along with health concerns, the underlying metrics don’t look great. Coming from someone who doesn’t believe these stats tell the full story, there’s still reason for skepticism. The excellent ERA and respectable FIP from 2025 likely won’t continue given their “expected” counterparts from FanGraphs. His 2025 xERA was 4.99, and his xFIP was 4.59. He also benefited from a tame .273 BABIP. If that number climbs closer to .300, his production will dip.

Beyond health, another large concern for the Padres’ staff is sustainable success. Cease is gone, so the Padres won’t reap the rewards of navigating his historically unlucky 2025 (as discussed in my FA outlook). Aside from him, there aren’t any Padres starters who project to improve in 2026.

Pivetta should remain reliable, but at his age it’s hard to sustain that level of breakout. The other main starter, Vasquez, was heavily reliant on “unsustainable success.” He’s another an example of someone whose underlying numbers I trust. As discussed in my pro-Vasquez article, he relies on a six-pitch mix, has an incredible sinker, and excels with runners on base. Giolito shares the clutch-pitching ability (76.7 LOB%), but lacks the arsenal depth and go-to pitch needed for me to ignore his underlying metrics.

Speaking of dominant pitches, that’s another area of concern for Giolito’s outlook. As a Chicagoan, I vividly remember the dominance of Giolito’s changeup during his time with the White Sox. He actually had two: a normal low-80s version that fell out of the zone as hitters lunged forward, and what might be my favorite pitch ever; a parachute changeup. It would come in high, look like a missed fastball, then float back into the zone for a strike. A risky, dominant pitch. It even got him a strikeout on Cody Bellinger in the 2019 All-Star Game.

Clearly, it’s with great sadness that I write about the falloff of one of my favorite pitchers and pitches.

Unfortunately, the numbers haven’t held. His changeup peaked with a +16 Statcast run value in 2019 and remained excellent through 2021. Since then, it’s been stuck at +0 for three straight seasons. One positive sign is that his fastball value (+5) returned above average results for the first time since 2020. It’s hard to see that continuing, though, as it averages just 93.3 mph (1.7 mph below league average), and he throws it 48% of the time.

It is possible for a pitcher with nasty off-speed stuff to successfully rely on a slower fastball, but with only two other pitches (a +1 slider and a +0 changeup), there isn’t much preventing hitters from sitting on the nearly half of Giolito’s pitches that are fastballs.

To summarize, just look at the Statcast breakdown of his 2025 season (some numbers vary from FanGraphs because they calculate things differently):

• 5.00 xERA (Bottom 13th Percentile)
• .267 xBA (Bottom 15th Percentile)
• 93.3 Fastball MPH (Bottom 32nd Percentile)
• 90.3 Avg Exit Velo (Bottom 22nd Percentile)
• 26.7% Chase Rate (Bottom 30th Percentile)
• 19.7% K-Rate (Bottom 28th Percentile)
• 9.1% BB-Rate (Bottom 30th Percentile)
• 9.0% Barrel Rate (Bottom 39th Percentile)
• 41.1% Hard Hit Rate (Bottom 45th Percentile)

While I’m glad to see Giolito earn himself another big payday, the Padres, and any team needing a reliable starter, should look elsewhere in free agency.