Can Fernando Tatis Jr. Find A Way Out Of His Launch Angle Spiral?

As of the end of April, there was exactly one hitter in Major League Baseball hitting the ball hard at a higher rate than Fernando Tatis Jr. And even James Woods’ 64.8 Hard-Hit% just narrowly edges the 64.7 percent rate at which the San Diego Padres' right fielder is working with thus far. In the grand scheme of the stat sheet, it hasn’t seemed to matter, however. 

Despite the quality of contact being made, Tatis has yet to find the statistical backing that would typically accompany such an impressive hard contact rate. To close out the month, his slash read a mere .250/.323/.286 with a 77 wRC+. Not a single piece of that hard contact has found its way over an outfield wall to date, with Tatis sitting well over 200 days since his last home run. His slugging percentage is the third-worst on the team, with a .036 ISO that trails every position player currently on the roster. 

Of course, the why of his power outage isn’t a mystery; Tatis simply is not lifting the ball. His average launch angle is 3.2. His 6° average attack angle is a two-degree dip from last season and a four-degree decrease from 2024. Those are each a factor in an ideal attack angle rate of only 51.3 percent. That’s five percent lower than last season. Additionally, he’s working with a fly-ball rate that sits six points below his career average (28.6), which looks even worse to the pull side (PullAIR% of just 5.9). The plane of his swing is simply too flat to generate any impact.

More lift juxtaposed against the type of contact Tatis is making would, undoubtedly, lead to a massive outburst of production. Whether there’s a way out of this kind of spiral in which he’s currently mired, however, is a much less certain concept.

Don’t get it twisted, the swing path is the issue. The extreme shallow nature of it is a problem. Navigating any other causes almost feel fruitless given the extremes we're talking about. Nevertheless, there are a couple of other areas worth investigating to see if he could tap into some power in a different way. 

It’s possible that there’s something in his lower half that is stifling the power, too. This is his stance on a home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2025: 

And here’s a swing from the team’s series against the Chicago Cubs this week: 

The result of the latter was a sharp single. One could perhaps make the argument that there’s more weight on his backside in the first swing that could yield more power than the one in the second. But it’s also not so severe that we’d expect that Tatis would feel compelled to evaluate the footwork components of his mechanics. Ultimately, the plane of the swing is going to come far more from the hands than anything the lower half might force it into. 

Maybe there’s an issue within his mastery of the zone? Even a long swing like the one Tatis utilizes might be susceptible to shallower contact if he’s being too aggressive on pitches in the lower portions of the zone that don’t lend themselves to fly-ball contact. Yet again, though, we’re faced with an absence of explanation beyond anything other than the preeminent conclusion:

His approach to the zone is fine. The areas of the zone in which he’s been most active are those that should help to generate power. When he does expand the zone, it’s to the outer parts, which are closer to the barrel as part of his long (7.3 ft) swing. From a mechanical and from a zone standpoint, there isn’t anything outside of what we already know that reveals the root of the struggle. We may have one more idea, though.

Tatis is swinging at more fastballs this season, reaching an equal rate with that of off-speed offerings (50.4 percent). Against those fastballs, he’s getting the ball in the air just 15.1 percent of the time. That’s a 10-point cut from 2025. His attack angle against fastballs is just 3°, with an ideal attack angle rate of only 40.9 percent. That’s nine percent lower than last season. There’s a compounding issue here. The plane of the bat is a problem on its own, but the fact that there’s an even larger exaggeration of woes there against fastballs — a pitch type against which he’s swinging at a higher rate than he did in 2025 — is indicative of something deeper. 

Despite the fact that Tatis is working with a fast swing speed, it feels as if he’s not in control at the plate. He’s swinging outside the zone more aggressively while also making less contact overall when he does. He’s getting quality contact because he’s hitting fastballs, but he’s doing so in a way that is more indicative of a player merely trying to put a ball in play rather than exert any impact in doing so. Does this mean there’s a psychological component at play that Tatis needs to get right before we can even begin to talk about the mechanical issues?

It’s a situation that’s as fascinating as it is frustrating. The struggles of Fernando Tatis Jr. aren’t a mystery in matters of the box score. His swing is too flat. But it seems entirely possible that there are a host of other things happening that are less observable. Either way, the Padres are in need of sorting from their right fielder. As good as the offense has been at keeping them afloat in the early going, one can’t expect it to tread water for too long without their biggest driver contributing to the cause.