Randy Vásquez Is Back And Better Than Ever

My call for Randy Vasquez to rejoin the MLB roster was finally answered last week, and it’s worked out great for the Padres. 

Following a trade deadline that shook up the starting rotation, Padres GM AJ Preller sent his second “best” pitcher, Randy Vasquez, down to AAA El Paso. I put “best” in parentheses because that's only based on ERA and innings pitched. As detailed in my last article, the sustainability metrics tell a different story. 

Despite the underlying numbers, I believed Vasquez deserved a spot in the Padres' rotation. Like many fans, I was growing tired of the Dylan Cease / Yu Darvish / Nestor Cortes / JP Sears roller coaster. Preller finally felt the same way and returned Vasquez to MLB for a Sept. 6 start against the Rockies. In his two September outings, Vasquez produced: 

• Disclaimer– Both Starts Were Against The Rockies… 
• 2 Wins
• 12 IP
• 2 ER
• 12 H
• 12 K
• 0 BB

What’s especially odd is that Preller removed Vasquez from the rotation in the midst of some of his best baseball. Since July 10, he had multiple extended periods between outings. 

• July 10 - July 21 (MLB All-Star Break)
• Aug. 2 - Aug. 15 (Minor Leagues)
• Aug. 15 - Sept. 6 (Minor Leagues)

*August 15 Appearance vs Dodgers Was In Relief

In that same time frame, he put up:

• 7 G (6 GS)
• 33.0 IP
• 3.55 ERA
• 3.72 FIP
• 5.1 BB%
• 16.1 K%

As shown by the solid 3.72 FIP, Vasquez’s recent success has been more sustainable than his early-season run (4.94 FIP). In those recent performances, he had just one bad outing against the Cardinals that resulted in a panic move from Preller (sending Vasquez to AAA). In every other outing, he gave up two or fewer earned runs. 

The one trait Vasquez has continued to rely on all season is his ability to get clutch outs. Since July 10, he has had a 75.4 LOB%, keeping his season rate over 75%. Hitters also have a .317 BABIP against Vasquez in that same time, meaning he could be getting a bit unlucky if anything. 

In addition to his consistency in clutch moments, Vasquez made a couple of adjustments that helped him regain his spot in the rotation. The first of which is a reduction in walks. Vasquez isn’t a strikeout pitcher, so he must prevent free passes. His 5.1% walk-rate since July 10 is 4.2% lower than his season average. On top of that, he hasn’t walked a batter in either of his September starts. 

This accuracy is likely linked to a pitch mix adjustment. In his last two outings, Vasquez threw 45 sinkers (27%) and 20 cutters (12%). That’s a big change from his full-season sinker (20%) and cutter (25%) rates. 

Upgrading his sinker to the top of his arsenal was a logical adjustment for Vasquez. It’s by far his best pitch with a +11 run value according to statcast. His cutter, in comparison, is his worst pitch with a -6 run value. Considering that sinkers can be effective against righties and lefties, there was no need for him to be so reliant on the cutter. 

The final adjustment he made was an unexpected one. Vasquez added a seventh pitch to his arsenal. His original six pitch mix has been effective enough, but none of the off-speed pitches have a positive run value. He relies more on variety than effectiveness. 

After throwing just 11 before September, Vasquez threw 32 sliders in his last two starts. The slider now has the highest PutAway% (16.7%) of his entire arsenal and the second highest whiff rate at 19%. 

While it may not be the most dominant pitch in baseball (still at zero run value), the new slider could give his off-speed enough variety to get him through the season, even if none of them are especially effective. 

It’s great to see Vasquez back in the rotation, being productive. San Diego needs to have all hands on deck come playoff time, and he could be the difference maker. He brings a deeper pitch arsenal than anyone in baseball, has the ability to get clutch outs, and can eat a lot of innings.