Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Superstar Revival Was Padres' Most Important Development In 2026

[Randy Holt]

There have been times in the last few years where it looked like Fernando Tatis Jr. was going to get back to the form of the superstar the San Diego Padres had in 2021. You know, before the various injuries and the suspension and the early struggles that come naturally with an extended absence from the sport. But in each of those instances, there was something missing. 

In 2023, Tatis played in 141 games but was unable to reestablish himself as a power threat. His 2021 ISO, for example, was at .328. By comparison, the first full season of return featured a final figure of just .191. Sure, he hit 25 home runs, but there wasn't the broad impact that the team had grown accustomed to seeing prior to the tumultuous 2021-22 stretch. The following year, Tatis got back to the gaps a bit more in the form of a .216 ISO, but hit fewer homers (21) and didn't offer much on the bases (11 steals) while only appearing in 102 games due to a stress reaction in his right leg. 

Last season was when we started the stardom again; Tatis went for 25 homers and 32 steals and exceeded six fWAR. At the same time, that WAR figure was somewhat propped up by his defense while his offensive output was pillared by his production in the first and last month of the year, including 15 of his home runs. In between, however, there were some mechanical issues that stifled him at the plate, with the hope being that a strong end to the year would put him on track for the first superstar season we'd seen from him in a half-decade in 2026. 

That didn't happen... at least at first.

Tatis endured the worst power outage of his career at the onset of this past season. He didn't hit a home run until May 30, and he didn't hit another until June 10. His ISO in the first month of the season read just .036 followed by a .069 mark in May. As those first balls sailed over the outfield wall, though, the power began to reemerge. From there, Fernando Tatis Jr. was back. 

From the start of June through the end of the season, the only position player in all of Major League Baseball who recorded a higher fWAR than Tatis in that stretch was Pete Crow-Armstrong, who spent that entire stretch living on another planet. While not on that level of outlier, Tatis paced the rest of the league in fWAR (4.8) while ranking in the top 10 in homers (24), steals (also 24), and wRC+ (152).

What is perhaps most encouraging is that his percentile distribution indicates that it wasn't just a matter of a few months, but an entire season in which he actually mashed:

While he needed to finalize whatever mechanical adjustments began during his 2025 slog in order to find more elevation, Tatis really did spend the entire season making quality contact and continuing the improvements in contact ability and strikeout avoidance that we saw him make last season. Combined with his usual brand of exceptional defense, which was forced to the keystone on occasion in 2026, it all worked together to catapult him back into the top of the league ranks for position players. 

Regardless of how things transpired for the Padres or for other members of their "core," the value of this development cannot be overstated. Simply put, it was the most important thing to happen for this franchise in 2026. A superstar capable of turning in a 25-homer, 38-steal season with only a single homer to speak of in the first two months is absolutely capable of even more. That's the player that this franchise built everything around, and as long as he's in form, this is a team that can continue to remain in playoff contention for years to come.

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