Padres, A.J. Preller Must Revisit Reliever-for-Starter Trade Ideas This Offseason

[Randy Holt]

The San Diego Padres had the league's best bullpen in 2026. There's an argument to be made that they were always destined to have the league's best bullpen in 2026. While the prophecy itself did come true this season, it didn't prove to be a saving grace following the team's quick ouster in the National League Division Series. Which means it's time to reevaluate. 

The 8.9 fWAR accumulated by Padres relievers was tops in the sport, followed by Boston's group at 8.0. Their 3.53 ERA ranked fifth, their 3.64 FIP sat second, and their 24.7 percent strikeout rate ranked fourth. Additionally, few teams were as adept at getting opposing hitters to make groundball contact as the Padres, with their 46.2 GB% ranking third. One issue? The 683.2 innings logged by relievers was the fourth-most in baseball. 

Within those 683.2 innings are the workloads of a few primary names. Adrian Morejon threw 86 innings, Wandy Peralta was in action for 72.1, and Bradgley Rodríguez & Mason Miller each tossed 70. That's roughly 44 percent of relief innings being covered by four arms, including three of the team's highest-leverage relievers. Some of that is due to injury, including multiple IL stints for Jason Adam & Jeremiah Estrada. The rest, though, is due to the roster's composition that always put the onus on the relievers to cover for a starting staff shakily held together for the first three quarters of the season.

That use caught up to them by the time the NLDS hit. While their overall 2.75 ERA was reasonable, they carried a 4.75 xERA (5.17 xFIP) and a mere 16.5 percent strikeout rate. That reliance forced Mason Miller into a second inning of work in Game 2 (one which he was unable to close out), saw Morejon unavailable in the latter portion of the series, and generally left an already overworked group navigating consistent traffic in a way that they were unaccustomed to throughout the regular season.

Even with the potential departure of Morejon in free agency, the Padres still sport a collection of upper-percentile relievers in their bullpen in the form of Miller, Rodríguez, and Estrada. While there are some left-handed complications that could arise in the form of a Peralta opt-out, a Yuki Matsui opt-out, and a Kyle Hart club option, the pitching staff is still shaped around the robust nature of their relief corps. The starting rotation, though, will enter the offseason with much the same questions as it possessed for the majority of 2026.

With trade deadline acquisitions Robbie Ray & Casey Mize set to hit free agency (while not carrying much re-sign appeal), Walker Buehler poised to do the same, and Michael King holding a player option—to say nothing of whether the team will retain Nick Pivetta or what Joe Musgrove's starting status will be—the rotation may actually find itself in worse shape than where it was early in 2026. Which means it could be high time for the Padres to explore moving at least one of their high-leverage relievers in the name of addressing their starting pitching. 

The most obvious factor in this is Miller. He'd fetch the largest package and, as such, the highest upside for a return that features a starting pitcher. Team control would also likely be a factor there too. Is there a world where the Padres trade Miller to address their rotation and re-sign Morejon for ninth-inning work? It shouldn't be a far-fetched idea. Even if it's not Miller, the Padres may still be able to find commensurate trade value for their best bullpen arms.

The offseason leaves us with plenty of time to explore such options. What should be clear to A.J. Preller, though, is that a bullpen-forward pitching staff gets you through the regular season, but the taxing of such arms does nothing for you once October hits. A good rotation, even one purely built to survive the 162-game onslaught of regular-season ball, would go a long way toward keeping the Padres' bullpen fresh for the most important part of the calendar.

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