Injuries Taking Their Toll On The Padres' Offense

[Randy Holt]

Turns out, it's a lot harder to score runs when roughly half your lineup is on the injured list.

Even home cookin' isn't enough for the San Diego Padres these days.

The team that started 12-1 at the friendly confines of Petco Park endured their first sweep of the season over the weekend, stinging even more because it came upon their return home from a six-game road swing. They scored just three runs across three games against the Tampa Bay Rays, giving way to larger concerns about the offense's ability to produce runs. At the same time, several key players remain out with various injuries. 

Jackson Merrill was placed on the IL on April 8th with a hamstring injury. Three days later, on April 11th, Jake Cronenworth followed with a rib injury. Luis Arráez went on the 7-day concussion IL exactly a week ago on Monday, following a scary collision in Houston. Those benchmarks are important in examining the Padres' offensive woes in recent games. 

Through April 7th, the Padres were a top 10 team in terms of run production. They'd scored 51 runs across 11 games, with a collective 120 wRC+ that ranked seventh among all teams in Major League Baseball. Even when Merrill went down, they stayed the course. Their wRC+ with an extra three days came in at 117 (sixth), and they were 10th in runs scored. 

Since that point, though, the injuries have started to wear on the Padres' offensive attack. They rank just 26th in runs (49) and 23rd in wRC+ (91). Their on-base percentage, a hallmark of early success, has also fallen to 23rd (.303). The last week without Arráez, in particular, has been a massive struggle. They've scored only nine runs in the past week (six games) and are 28th in OBP (.237). Their 41 collective wRC+ is just a single notch above last-place Toronto and Los Angeles (the Angels, obviously). 

There is, of course, a caveat to that in that they've gone against quality pitching. Houston (3.18) and Detroit (2.80) each rank in the top four staffs in cumulative ERA. Tampa Bay's just a little bit farther down the list in seventh (3.46). But it's not like things get easier this week. They'll welcome San Francisco's ninth-ranked (3.47) staff to town before heading to Pittsburgh & New York, each of which features staffs in the top half of the league in overall production.

It's obviously very bad timing for a team just trying to scrape any offense they can find in the absence of several key players. Relying on the likes of Jose Iglesias, Tyler Wade, Yuli Gurriel, Tirso Ornelas, and Connor Joe likely isn't what the front office envisioned, even on a team starved for actual depth. And while, for their money, the likes of Iglesias and Wade have been fine, they're hardly impact bats in the lineup. At best, you're getting quality on-base skills for the rest of the lineup to knock in. Except most of the rest of the lineup is hanging out in IL city.

But there is, at least, some reason for optimism on the horizon. Arráez appears set to be activated on Tuesday after spending the minimum on the concussion IL. Jason Heyward could join him. Jackson Merrill is taking live batting practice, and Jake Cronenworth is getting some fielding work in. While the latter has yet to begin diving as part of his on-field ramp-up, there are some encouraging signs that the health of the lineup is finally starting to tilt in the Padres' favor. 

They're not there yet, though. While a couple of off days this week will buy additional time, the lack of offense remains concerning. Difficult as it may be to pin recent losses on guys pressed into far more duty than expected, the team is going to have to find ways to generate at least some offense to support what has continued to be a high-quality pitching staff or risk falling behind quickly in the exceptionally competitive National League West.

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