Positioning May Be The Source Of Manny Machado's Defensive Regression

[Randy Holt]

Disclaimer: What we're not doing here is casting aspersions on Manny Machado. Having just recently passed the threshold of playing more games with the San Diego Padres than the Baltimore Orioles, he's further cemented himself as a legend of the organization. He remains a key contributor and an upper tier player within the larger scale of Major League Baseball. 

That said, his defense in 2025 has been, in a word, bad. 

Before he emerged into a genuinely elite hitter, Machado made his bones as a star caliber player with the glove. He recorded seven Defensive Runs Saved in his first 460-ish inning action back in 2012 before posting 27 over nearly 1,400 the following year. When advanced metrics came into the picture in 2016, he notched a Fielding Run Value of five, which was tied for the fourth-best mark among 18 qualifying third basemen that year. 

Fielding Run Value is what we will continue to use to evaluate Machado's defense of a more recent vintage, as it takes into account both range and arm in providing a comprehensive defensive metric. 

As recently as 2023, Machado remained elite. Among qualifying third baseman that year, only Ke'Bryan Hayes posted a higher figure than Machado's 9 FRV. That was primarily on the strength of his 97th percentile range, given that his arm strength came in at just the 51st. Nevertheless, he converted outs at a 76 percent success rate against a 72 percent estimated success rate. A tough act to follow, especially with an offseason surgery looming. 

Between '23 and '24, Machado had elbow surgery to repair a tendon. When he debuted in 2024, it was as the team's designated hitter. The 870-ish innings he logged was his fewest over a full season (as a full-time third sacker) since 2014. But this is where the regression started. 

By FRV, Machado was exactly average defensively in 2024. He converted 69 percent of chances into outs on a 69 percent estimation. The concerning element, though, is that his range fell to the 38th percentile, while his arm checked in slightly above what it was the previous season (56th percentile). It's sort of the opposite of what you'd expect. You could understand the arm strength coming down from even his average figure, but the range certainly presents as concerning.

Perhaps there was a readjustment period. Or, more alarming, maybe his 32-year-old body is starting to show signs of wear in not getting to balls that he used to. 

It's not something you want to speculate on, but the 2025 defensive metrics only enhance such concerns. His FRV thus far is -3, almost entirely a result of his actually making the play. His success rate is at 71 percent against a 74 percent estimated success rate. Weirdly, though, his play on balls in a "straight up" scenario is even worse. His 70 percent success rate is five points lower than the expected. 

It's a trend that has Machado sitting in 23rd in FRV among 29 qualifying players at the position. Worse yet, there's not a lot of breathing room between Machado and the bottom of the list. Max Muncy and Mark Vientos, who occupy the bottom two spots, are at -5 FRV. 

The exact source of Machado's defensive issues remains the issue. Is this a situation where he can adjust based on positioning? Other than something less quantifiable, like an aging curve, it may be the best explanation we have. 

In 2023, Machado was playing at an average depth of 117 feet at a 32 degree angle (the third base line is 45 degrees, for reference). The angle itself read as fairly normal against his contemporaries, but the depth was one of the shortest distances among full-time third basemen. In 2024, that depth grew to 120 feet at a 30 degree angle; a little bit deeper, a little bit farther off the bag.

Thus far in 2025, Machado's depth is at 125 feet and a 28 degree angle. The distance has grown from the plate, and he continues to gravitate away from the third base line. For context, the top players at the position (by FRV) are on the opposite end of the spectrum, particularly in regard to depth. Ke'Bryan Hayes is at 113 feet, Ernie Clement is at 117, and Nolan Arenado is at 119. Those are the three best third base defenders by FRV. 

Third base is a position where you want to cut the distance as much as (realistically) possible. You're getting the highest exit velocities of anyone on the field, but you also want to mitigate the chance of weird spin, strange bounce, etc. Which is why you see the shorter distance among the more effective third base defenders. And could also serve as an explanation as to why Machado is having such difficulty in converting "straight up" outs. 

So why the change for Machado? We don't know. Maybe it's a comfort thing. Maybe it's not at all intentional. But in terms of the quantifiable, it's the only tangible explanation we have for the defensive woes he's experiencing. Whether he can compensate with his new positioning or make an adjustment to get back on track will be a situation worth monitoring moving forward.

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