Do The San Diego Padres Have A Dylan Cease Problem?

[Randy Holt]

The San Diego Padres find themselves in their current position largely on the strength of what they're able to do on the mound. While the offense has sputtered at times, it's the arms that have kept the team in the mix in the National League West. Imagine where they could be sitting if not for the apparent struggles of Dylan Cease. 

Cease, along with his rotation-mate Michael King, garnered attention over the winter as potential trade candidates. With free agency on the horizon — and the constant barrage of budget concerns in which the Padres apparently find themselves — it was mildly surprising to see both suit up in San Diego from the jump this season. And although King has only helped his case for a sizable new contract (despite his current role serving as a member of the Injured List), that hasn't been quite the case for Dylan Cease, at least outwardly.

Which represents something a little bit weird. Because the underlying data we have indicates that Cease should be turning in a strong 2025 campaign. Yet, he's sitting with a 4.72 ERA, his highest home run rate since 2021 (1.05 per nine innings), and a strand rate that currently resides as the worst of his career (66.4 percent). Are those numbers even indicative of anything given what we see underneath the hood?

Cease's 96.8 MPH average fastball velocity is in the 87th percentile, his whiff rate (33.7 percent) is in the 93rd, and his overall strikeout rate (29.1) is in the 85th. He's maintained his elite status in the "stuff" department (which extends beyond the colloquial meaning, given that his Stuff+ checks in above average on both his fastball and his slider). The slider, specifically, which has become his most-used pitch, ranks 18th in baseball among the 78 qualifying arms that throw one. As we look at all of that, it's fairly clear that results are not indicative of the actual season Cease is giving the Padres. And there are at least a couple of reasons for that, one of which is a direct result of the other.

On one hand, there's a longevity issue unfolding for Cease at present. Through his first 13 starts, Cease is averaging roughly 5 2/3 innings per outing (68 2/3 innings total). He's failed to work through the fifth inning in five of those starts and has gone exactly five in another three of them. The modern baseball world obviously does not value pitcher wins to the extent they used to (which remains a largely valid development). But, with Cease only having a single win on the books (1-5 record overall) despite the fact we're well into June, it's certainly indicative of some struggles to work deep into games.

But is that even his fault? The above numbers appear to indicate that it isn't, given the high volume of strikeouts and — on a more pitch-to-pitch level — whiffs. Cease's 8.2 percent walk rate is actually the best of his career, so he's working in and around the zone at a level we haven't seen before. He had one start back on April 26th where he walked four hitters and two others where he walked three. Other than that, Cease has issued free passes to two or fewer hitters in 10 of those 13 starts. Which brings us directly to the source: the defense.

That longevity issue is likely wrought by a more severe "luck" issue, both in terms of his batted ball fortunes and in what the defense behind him is doing in order to support him. Cease's opposing hitter batting average on balls in play is .333. By that metric alone, only six qualifying starters have worked against worst luck than Cease. And then there's the FIP side of things. 

Fielding Independent Pitching, for the uninitiated, removes defensive factors in favor of those events over which a pitcher has more direct control (strikeouts, walks, homers, etc.). In Cease's case, his season FIP sits at just 3.20. Additionally, in some of his worst individual starts, the FIP is screaming at us about the defense's role in all of this.

On April 8th, Cease gave up nine earned runs across four innings but had a FIP of 3.32. In his two most recent starts (May 31st and June 5th), he was unable to work past the fifth inning while allowing three runs to cross in each. But his FIP in those starts was 3.93 and 2.07, respectively. There's a defensive component here that's impossible to ignore. It's not that they're recording errors behind Cease. They're simply failing to make the necessary plays in support of their starting pitcher... which probably shouldn't ring as any kind of a surprise. The San Diego Padres are just 17th in the league in Fielding Run Value (0), with the range aspect of the equation specifically coming in at -2. They're a below-average team in matters of getting to the baseball in order to record outs. If you're wondering why Dylan Cease is operating against a .333 BABIP, there's a good chunk of it. 

Not that Cease has been perfect, mind you. He's giving up a bit more barrel contact than he did last year as an example. But, the expected stats tell us plenty. A 3.67 xERA. A .242 xBA against. He should be better. But it's not a situation where his usage has changed or he's missing spots. This is a matter of some bad luck compounding with defensive inefficiency to pin down the production that we should be seeing from a typically effective starting pitcher. 

The good news is that these things have a tendency to even themselves out.

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