AJ Preller's Padres Teams Have An Ebb & Flow To Their Seasons; Is It Happening Again In 2025?

[Ryan Hernandez]

A trend over the past few seasons for the Padres has been their tendency to start hot, then cool off, and ultimately emerge as one of the hottest teams in baseball after the All-Star break.

In the 2022 season, the Padres had a record of 50-49 at the All-Star Break and needed a strong second half to make the postseason. The Padres would then go on to finish with a 41-16 record in the second half, giving them an 89-73 record and a postseason berth. The team would go on to clinch the final playoff spot and beat the New York Mets in the Wild Card series, two games to one. They would then go on to defeat their division rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers, three games to one, and advance to their first championship series since 1998. The Padres would fall to the Philadelphia Phillies 4- 1, but the Padres ended the regular season as MLB’s hottest team.

In 2023, the Padres had high expectations and were looking to get off to a hot start. Unfortunately, the squad hovered around the .500 mark for the entire season. The Padres had a strong September in the 2023 season, with an MLB-best 19-7 record; however, despite a very strong month, the Padres would miss the playoffs with an 82-80 record. After the All-Star break, they did manage to finish with a winning record of 39-33, but it wasn’t enough to counter the slow start. This was a season where the Padres struggled for most of the year but found their momentum when it mattered most. However, it was too late, and their strong late playoff push ultimately came up short, leaving the 2023 season to fall short of the very high and lofty expectations.

In 2024, San Diego bounced back and made a playoff run. However, this was another instance of the Padres being inconsistent throughout the season, alternating between hot and cold streaks. Coming into the All-Star break, the Padres had a 50-49 record and would need to have a strong second half of the season to legitimize their team and make a push. The Padres would then finish with an MLB-best 43-20 record post-All-Star break and would finish with an overall record of 93-69 and would once again face their division rivals, the Dodgers, in the National League Division series, but would lose three games to two after holding a 2-1 series lead.

So far this season, the Padres are following the same hot and cold trend. The Padres started with a franchise-best 19-game start and had the best record in MLB with a 15-4 record. However, since then, the Padres have cooled and are currently sitting with a record of 42-35. They have a record of 27-31 in their last 58 games, and while they’re still on pace to make the playoffs, the Padres need to find their stride again if they want to make a push for October.

Over their last 10 games, the Padres carry a record of 4-6 and have fallen from second to third in the division, behind the Dodgers and Giants. The Padres will need to reignite their hot start and make a postseason run as they try to win the franchise’s first-ever World Series title. Can the rest of the offense follow the same success as Machado, who is batting over .300 in June? Is the Padres' championship window closing?

It’ll be interesting to see how the Padres and President of Baseball Operations, AJ Preller, manage the second half of their season and how the team will improve. The Padres just came off a series win over the Kansas City Royals and start are playing a three-game home series against the Washington Nationals, where the Padres hope to gain momentum as the All-Star Game draws closer. 

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