Breaking Down David Morgan’s Quietly Dominant Curveball

[Alex Carl]

It may not have an eye-popping vertical break or a huge sweeping tilt, but David Morgan’s curveball is getting the job done in 2025, and doing it relatively quietly.

At first glance, it’s not the most intimidating pitch in his arsenal. Averaging 82.4 mph with modest spin and a few statistical blemishes, including a 55.6% hard-hit rate and a .238 batting average against, Morgan’s breaking ball doesn’t scream dominance. But dig a little deeper, and you’ll find one of the sneakiest weapons in the Padres' bullpen.

So far this season, Morgan has leaned on the curve 23.4% of the time, good for 83 of his total pitches. He’s used it against lefties and righties, but slightly more against left-handers (48 curveballs to LHB, 35 to RHB). Interestingly, all five hits against the pitch have come off the bats of lefties, and all of them were hangers that caught too much of the plate.

Despite that, the expected batting average (xBA) on the pitch is a tidy .186, much better than the actual .238 average hitters have posted against it. That discrepancy speaks to the core of what makes the pitch effective. When Morgan executes, the pitch is nearly unhittable.

Morgan has racked up 12 strikeouts with his curveball, by far his best punch-out pitch. He’s generated 17 total swings-and-misses with the pitch, and 12 of those came in strikeout situations. In other words, when hitters miss Morgan’s curveball, they’re usually walking back to the dugout right after.

That’s no accident. Morgan trusts the pitch with two strikes. Of the 83 curves he’s thrown, 39 have come with two strikes, nearly half. His usage also tells a clear story; he’ll mix the curve in throughout the at-bat, but it’s especially potent as a wipeout pitch. He’s thrown it 29 times when ahead in the count, 13 times when behind, and 41 times in even counts.

Morgan’s curveball has an outstanding whiff rate of 37.8% and a putaway rate of 30.8%. For context, the league average whiff rate for curveballs typically hovers around 30%, and a putaway rate above 20% is considered strong. Morgan is exceeding both marks, and that’s a big reason the expected numbers on the pitch are so encouraging.

Yet, perhaps one of the most fascinating stats tied to Morgan’s curveball is its run value: 0. That might not sound great, but in the world of pitch analytics, that’s a quiet win. A pitch with a neutral run value means it’s essentially holding its own, not giving up damage, not giving up momentum. It acts as a stabilizer. And when is that your best strikeout pitch? That’s usually a pretty good combination.

As with most curveballs, location is everything. Morgan has been burned when he’s left it over the middle, as all five hits have come in the heart of the strike zone. But when he keeps it down or buries it late in counts, the pitch becomes lethal.

Against lefties, the curve has functioned well as a freeze pitch early in the count or a back-foot breaker. Against righties, he uses it more as a chase pitch, starting it in the zone and letting it dip below the knees. That approach has helped him neutralize hitters when he lands it, but as those five hits show, any misfire up and over can get punished.

Still, the underlying numbers indicate that the pitch is succeeding far more often than not. Hitters may have put a few loud swings on the curveball this season, but overall, they’re not barreling it up consistently. And when they do make contact, they’re usually not seeing it again later in the count.

Morgan’s pitch mix has evolved since his call-up, and the curveball’s rise in usage reflects a growing confidence. While he still mixes in a sinker and a slider along with the fastball, the curve has emerged as his go-to secondary offering. It’s the pitch he trusts when the game’s on the line, and it’s the pitch that’s helped him carve out a role in the middle innings for San Diego.

Morgan's curveball isn’t perfect. The high, hard-hit rate suggests it can still get hit, and hit hard when it misses. But the pitch’s expected results, strikeout ability, and growing role in his arsenal all point toward a sustainable weapon moving forward.

If he continues to execute it with precision, burying it in two-strike counts and keeping it out of the middle third, it might remain one of the most underrated breaking balls in the Padres' bullpen.

So yes, the expected batting average of .186 is fun. But what’s even more fun is knowing that Morgan’s curveball isn’t a gimmick. It’s a legitimate out pitch. It’s earned his trust. And if he keeps throwing it like this, it’s going to keep earning outs.

View full article