Which Impending Padres Free Agents Are Most Likely to Return?

[Randy Holt]

On paper, and as of the end of their short-lived postseason run, the San Diego Padres are set to return seven of nine starters on the positional side, four starting pitchers, and the majority of their relief arms in 2026. A lot can happen between now and next year, but it's a favorable position in which they find themselves. Either they add to supplement those players already in place, or they move players out in order to replenish some of the farm and revamp their approach at a specific position. The most likely outcome could (and this is something we'll investigate later) feature a blend of both. 

In the meantime, they have some decisions to confront regarding their impending free agents. Four notable names are set to test the market as true free agents: Dylan Cease, Nestor Cortes, Jr., Luis Arráez, and Ryan O'Hearn. This, of course, doesn't account for players with player or mutual options (Robert Suárez & Michael King, respectively). But, because we don't have the official word (despite a fairly strong assumption) on decisions, we'll exclude them for the purpose of this discussion. We're also not including Jose Iglesias, who was an important player on the strength of his versatility only but will likely be forced to continue his journeyman career elsewhere in '26.

As such, let's talk about what the future could hold, whether in San Diego or elsewhere, for each of the other four true free agents on the roster.

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Dylan Cease

Of the four names, Cease is the most tantalizing because of the upside we've seen from him, both on the South Side of Chicago and for one of his two years in San Diego. He was genuinely excellent in 2024, finishing with a career-best 4.7 fWAR as well as a 3.47 ERA and 3.56 FIP. His strikeout rate (29.4 percent) was above his career average, while his 8.5 percent walk rate checked in at the lowest of his career. He was largely dominant while also remaining efficient. 

Unfortunately, that blend didn't carry over into 2025. The strikeouts were up (29.8 percent), but so were walks (9.8 percent). He struggled to find any semblance of batted ball luck (.320 BABIP against) with a slight uptick in barrels (8.6 percent). The BABIP does suggest his ability to be efficient was pinned down by misfortune, but his inability to work deep into games was glaring throughout the year. That was, no doubt, a factor in why his name floated around the ether before the July trade deadline (in addition to his pending free agent status). 

It's hard to imagine a world where teams are unlikely to look at that upside and the underlying metrics and deem him worthy of a significant contract. He stands to get paid, even if on a shorter term deal than might have been projected ahead of this year. Given the organization's ability to develop pitching, even at the major league level, it's hard to imagine the Padres swimming in the depth it would require to retain a player that'll play his age-30 season in 2026. That's especially true with fewer miles on Michael King, who they may prefer to try and sign longer term. Even if it's not completely implausible to see them bringing back both considering the lack of depth they do have at present, it doesn't feel remotely realistic.

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Nestor Cortes Jr.

This one doesn't merit nearly as long a discussion. 

The former New York Yankees starter made a pair of starts with the Milwaukee Brewers to open the year. In one of those starts, he surrendered eight runs in two innings, including five home runs. In the other, he went six scoreless. It wasn't all that different from what we saw with the Padres after his arrival at the trade deadline.

Cortes made six starts with San Diego and allowed home runs in three of them. In one of those starts, he was tagged for three big flies and served up four in another. Three of his four decisions in a Padre uniform were losses, with one beauty of a start against the Los Angeles Dodgers providing a glimmer of hope that he could provide value down the stretch. That didn't come to fruition, though, both due to the homer issue and a lack of efficiency. His last two starts totaled just 5 1/3 innings in length against two non-contending teams in Minnesota and Baltimore. 

That he wasn't included on the postseason roster speaks to his future in San Diego, in that there isn't one. The possibility exists of maybe some sort of minor league deal late into the winter depending on how his market shakes out, but any return feels far-fetched for the lefty. 

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Luis Arráez

Arráez is an interesting one. His skill set plays for any lineup, and he's expressed a willingness to remain in San Diego long-term. The skill set, though, is going to make for a fascinating offseason for Arráez, whether it's with the Padres or not. 

Even in a "down" year, Arráez still hit .292 and checked in at a 104 wRC+. His strikeout rate came in at an incredible 3.1 percent (a career-best mark) and his walk rate, at 5.0 percent, was actually up a touch. The issue is that his elite contact skills aren't as beneficial when swinging at just about everything, given the lack of impact that comes from such free-swinging tendencies. His on-base percentage (.327) was nearly 40 points lower than his career average, while his absence of power (.100 ISO) was troublesome for a team that needed power to come from literally anywhere. All of the tendencies were amplified in the Wild Card Round, when he hit just .182 and didn't take a walk across the three games.

It's difficult to project what his game might be worth on the free agent market. But Arráez is probably going to be best-suited for a team that has power pieces in place and could use more contact in their lineup. The Padres aren't that at present. Despite the work he put in at first base and as the team's designated hitter in the last two seasons, they're probably going to be better-served looking for a bit more impact at either position moving forward.

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Ryan O'Hearn

Acquired alongside Ramón Laureano in the deadline deal with Baltimore, O'Hearn was varying levels of fine in his two months with the Padres. He posted a 113 wRC+ in August before following that up with a 110 figure in September. The issue is that even those technically-above-average figures were well below what he'd turned in the last handful of years with the O's, and he offered practically no serious impact where it mattered most.

A hitter with a career 22.1 K%, he punched out 23.7 percent of the time in August and at a 26.7 percent rate in September. He was unable to compensate for the strikeouts with much of anything power-wise. His .148 ISO in August represented a near-40 point drop from July before bottoming out at .071 in September. There were perhaps some mechanical issues at play, but that's water under the bridge at this point. This is the case of a pure rental player that didn't work out, and it's unlikely we'll hear much of any association between the two sides this winter.

So, if we had to answer the actual headline in question, we're left with: maybe none of them. There's arguments to be made for Cease or Arráez, but given where the organization's needs lie and where the budget may fall (despite some freed up money by these very departures), the necessary shakeup after an early postseason exit makes it tough to envision any of this quartet returning in 2026.

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