Do the Padres Stand to Gain or Lose With Introduction of ABS?

[Randy Holt]

It's a storyline merely lurking in the weeds with so much offseason buzz floating around, but the Automated Ball-Strike challenge system (ABS) making its way to Major League Baseball next season will be at the forefront of our minds once it actually gets underway. And the pieces published thus far around its implementation lend themselves to some interesting questions related specifically to the San Diego Padres. 

Over at FanGraphs, Davy Andrews published a piece in which he explored framing in the age of ABS. After navigating some of the numbers and paradoxical thinking around how framing as a skill might coexist with ABS, he noted what was one of more cogent points in the still-young discussion around this development: 

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Catchers are much more concerned with “keeping strikes strikes.” That is, making sure that when their pitcher hits the zone, they’re rewarded with a called strike. The best pitch framers in the league earn strikes on nearly 90% of shadow zone pitches in the zone, but outside the zone, that number is down below 20%. The challenge system will further reinforce that emphasis, and I’d remind you that in both of the sample sets we broke down, catchers ran much higher overturn rates than batters.

The thought here is that catchers that are already good at framing are going to have their skills amplified. And considering the IQ that the position requires, the instinctive reaction required to challenge a called ball means it's not a surprise that they feature the higher overturn rates than hitters. Ultimately, teams that employ strong defenders behind the plate are going to feel an added benefit in the introduction of ABS.

This, somewhat automatically, lends itself to questions about the Padres' eventual interaction with ABS. 

As of now, Freddy Fermin stands atop the depth chart for the Padres behind the plate. It's hard to imagine that changes in any meaningful way. Behind him, however, remains something of a question. Luis Campusano is in line for some run as the No. 2 given the absence of anyone else in the organization at present. Considering the prior reluctance to insert him in such a role, though, that side of it could certainly change. Either way, the assertion that good framers can be made better by ABS doesn't necessarily bode well for whatever shape the duo takes for San Diego. 

Fermin wasn't a particularly effective framer during his post-deadline time with the Padres. He finished with -2 Framing Runs and was largely ineffective in the shadows to which Andrews referred in the above excerpt. He graded out as exactly average in the top shadow (0 Framing Runs) and was at 2 Framing Runs to his left, but went -1 on the right and -2 on the bottom of the zone. Bear in mind the fact that that Baseball Savant's shadow doesn't exclusively consider inside of the zone, so we shouldn't expect Fermin to linger around that 90-percent mark. But his checking in as exactly average or below in the majority of the areas isn't a terrific development if we're to believe in the amplification of skill wrought by ABS. 

If there's a positive, it's that Fermin was a markedly better catcher in the bottom shadow (16 Framing Runs) and still above average to his left during his years with the Kansas City Royals. So, if he can find a marriage of his strengths between Kansas City and San Diego, the possibility exists that he can use ABS to his advantage. 

The more concerning part of this is Campusano. If ABS enhances the quality of good framers, then we're left with the belief that poor framers could become more exposed. He checked in at -9 Framing Runs between 2023 and 2024, including -4 in the top shadow and -8 to the left. There's a reason the Padres have been reluctant to insert him behind the plate. And if we're to believe this is a trend that could manifest next season, then it may certainly be worth exploring a transition to platoon first base and bench work, rather than as a regular catcher. Either way, as exciting as the prospect of ABS has the potential to be, it's not painting a terrific picture for the Padres at the present moment.

In separate work cited by Andrews' article at FanGraphs, Tom Tango examined challenge probability by utilizing data available from the 2025 minor league season (where ABS was implemented for the full year). His model provided something of a baseline for what level of aggression we could see from hitters and catchers alike, with the following standing out: 

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The key parameter to consider is the proximity of the pitch to the border of the strike zone. The more egregious the call, the more likely the challenge. Interestingly, even on egregious calls, the players are not challenging at anywhere close to 100%. We'll be lucky to see them challenge even 50% of the time. Remember: you have an unlimited number of correct challenges. So, that means every egregious call should be challenged. Why does this not happen? Well, to you and me, maybe the calls are easily egregious to determine. But to the players in question? Not so much.

The psychological side of this is also going to be fascinating. Catchers that are quality framers carry that IQ with them. It would also be easy to assume that because quality framing is fairly black-and-white (courtesy of analytics), those that are good framers know they are good framers. Could those who struggle on the framing side be more reluctant to challenge with knowledge of their own shortcoming? It's impossible to project that, but the situational and skill-set side is going to be a tremendous aspect about which to speculate as far as underneath-the-surface factors go. 

We're still a long way off from this meaning too much for the Padres. They have an offseason to work with each backstop and could add another catcher that helps their case here. But the early indicators aren't off to a terrific start. For a shallow pitching staff that is going to need as much help as possible, this is suddenly an area that the Padres may need to address in short order.

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