Padres Projected To Finish Third In NL West In 2026 ZiPS Standings

[Steve Drumwright]

Like it or not, when it comes to NL West predictions in the era of the Death Star Dodgers, the highest every other team in the division hopes to be is second place. And with spring training less than two weeks away, various outlets are coming out with early predictions or projections for how the NL West will shake out.

One of those was FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski, the mastermind behind the widely respected ZiPS projections. After doing team-by-team projections (you can read Padres Mission's review of that) over the last few months, Szymborski used updated rosters and projections to come up with division-by-division standings.

As expected, when it came to the West, the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers were the clear-cut best team in baseball. By running "a million simulations," Szymborski's projection gave the Dodgers a 96-66 record. Again, not surprising.

So, where did the San Diego Padres fit in? ZiPS has the Friars finishing third at 83-79, just a game behind the second-place San Francisco Giants at 84-78. Unfortunately, Szymborski doesn't spend much time analyzing why the Padres will finish in this spot, only alluding to the fragility of the starting rotation should injuries take a bite out of the staff. With the Arizona Diamondbacks projected for an 81-81 mark, it figures to be a three-way battle for second place. The Colorado Rockies bring up the rear at 61-101, following up on the worst record in MLB in 2025 with the worst projected record of 2026.

Padres fans shouldn't be too surprised at any of this, knowing the rotation is thin and the depth of the position players is shaky.

When it comes to making the playoffs, which is always the true goal of the regular season, the Padres have a 10% chance of winning the division and a 41.9% shot at an NL wild card. The Giants are at 14.6% for the division and 35.5% for a wild card, while the D'backs are at 6.5% and 25%. Surprisingly, the Friars had a better projection when it came to winning the World Series than the Giants. The Padres won the championship 2.8% of the time, with the D'backs next at 2% and the Giants at 1.6%.

Of course, that all pales in comparison to the Dodgers, whose numbers pop off the page. L.A. checked in at winning the West 68.9% of the time, a whopping 22.3 percentage points ahead of the Seattle Mariners, who won the AL West 46.6% of the time. The Dodgers settled for a wild card at a 22.8% clip.

Szymborski said of Los Angeles: "The Dodgers are still the class of the division, but their invincibility has been vastly overrated."

Isn't that what the theory about the Death Star was, too?

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