ZiPS And The 2026 Padres: The Good, The Bad, & The Unpredictable

Preseason predictions should always be taken with a grain of salt. The methodology used to reach certain decisions or projected outcomes often doesn't match what fans or quasi-experts have in mind for a team in the upcoming season.

With that caveat, FanGraphs' popular ZiPS projections for the 2026 season hit on the San Diego Padres on Monday. If you are unfamiliar with the system created by Dan Szymborski, he provided an introduction to this year's rankings. The TL;DR of that is these are baseline projections for players based on where they are in their career and where they are going.

With that, let's dive into what ZiPS popped out on the Padres.

Padres Position Player Projections

The accompanying chart of projections shows that the Padres have four position-player groups projected to have 2.2 fWAR or lower. For a Padres team looking to win at least 90 games for the third straight season, which would be a first in franchise history, that is a bit much.

Before we get to those groups, what did ZiPS think about the strength of the offense? It begins with right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr., who checks in at a 4.9 fWAR and a .265/.356/.461 slash line with 26 homers, 80 RBIs, 25 steals, and a 125 OPS+. Pretty similar to what he did in 2025. Next is center fielder Jackson Merrill at 3.6 fWAR. Merrill's projected slash line is .270/.320/.458 with 20 homers and 75 RBIs, a season closer to what he did as a rookie than he did in 2025 when he battled a couple of injuries.

There was a curious situation with the shortstop and third base projections. Shortstop, with only Xander Bogaerts listed, has a 3.3 fWAR, but Bogaerts himself has a 2.7 fWAR. Third base, meanwhile, is at 3.2 fWAR, with Manny Machado at 3.2 and Sung Mun Song at 1.7. Song is also in the mix at second base. As far as real numbers, Machado comes in at .258/.321/.430 with 23 homers and 84 RBIs, Bogaerts at .259/.326/.374 with 10 homers and 52 RBIs, and Song at .238/.304/.360 with 12 homers and 57 RBIs.

That covers the good positions. The next three spots are basically league average.

Left field comes in at 2.2 fWAR with Ramon Laureano, who came over at the trade deadline, checking in at 1.6 fWAR, and Bryce Johnson at 0.9 fWAR, with Johnson also listed as the backup in center. Laureano has a projected .242/.314/.428 slash line. Second base has a 2.0 fWAR with Jake Cronenworth splitting time at the position with Song and Will Wagner. Cronenworth, with a 1.8 fWAR, has a slash line of .233/.335/.373. At catcher, which has a 2.1 fWAR, ZiPS lists Freddy Fermin as the starter with Luis Campusano as the backup, as expected. But when you look at the projected stats, Campusano has 111 more plate appearances than Fermin, likely due to the former also getting time at first base and designated hitter, per the playing time projections. Fermin has a 1.0 fWAR and a .234/.288/.344 slash line, while Campusano has a surprisingly high 1.9 fWAR and a .247/.327/.393 with 13 homers and 54 RBIs. Campusano has only had one positive fWAR season, coming in at 1.0 in 2023, and never hit more than eight homers in a season (2024).

Friars fans would be ecstatic to see that type of production from Campusano, however.

Now for the three subpar spots.

Cronenworth is also the projected starter at first base, a position with a 1.2 fWAR. Gavin Sheets and Campusano are also at first in what figures to be a heavily platooned spot at this point. Sheets checks in with a .237/.303/.401 slash line with 16 homers and 59 RBIs for a 0.6 fWAR. DH, often a strength of teams or at least middle of the pack, is actually the Friars' weakest position with a 1.0 fWAR. This is figuring on a combination of Sheets, Campusano, and Machado, among others.

As Szymborski writes, "I’d feel better about the Padres if they had a better starter at either first or designated hitter, but this is a solidly above-average lineup."

Padres Pitching Staff Projections

This is the spot that will make or break the Friars in 2026. With little depth to rely on, the Padres will need the starting rotation to remain healthy — and that counts on one injured player returning to form.

The chart and the projections differ in the fWAR provided. Nick Pivetta is listed at 2.8 in the chart, but his stat projection has him at 2.3. Similarly, Michael King is a 3.3 and 2.2, Joe Musgrove 2.4 and 1.4. Randy Vasquez and JP Sears are basically even in both, with Vasquez at 0.8 and 0.7, and Sears flipped at 0.7 and 0.8. Kyle Hart is the No. 6 option at 0.3 and 0.7.

Musgrove is making his way back from Tommy John surgery, so he is a definite wild card in the entire mix. Considering he had his surgery in October 2024, so should be on schedule to be a full participant in spring training and ready for Opening Day, barring any setbacks.

There are no surprises here. The Padres are still hoping to add to the rotation, whether through free agency or a trade, and perhaps more than one arm.

While almost everyone really likes the Friars' bullpen, ZiPS was a little more cautious than other projections. That has nothing to do with closer Mason Miller, who checks in with a 1.7 fWAR, or the setup crew of Adrian Morejon (0.9), Jeremiah Estrada (0.9), or Jason Adam (0.6). Instead, it reflects on the status of Wandy Peralta, who is entering his age-34 season, and the surprise showing of David Morgan, who was a struggling minor-leaguer before capitalizing on his first MLB call-up in 2025. Both are projected for 0.3 fWAR in 2026.

Other Takeaways

ZiPS doesn't hate the Friars. 

"The Padres look a lot like the 2025 team, with a win projection in the high 80s and 90 being well within the probable range. But it’s a fragile 90 wins," Szymborski writes.

One potential position player to keep an eye on is backup outfielder Tirso Ornelas. ZiPS has Ornelas, who made his MLB debut in 2025, with a 0.9 fWAR and a .239/.309/.358 slash line with 10 homers and 49 RBIs. Where he is getting those 476 plate appearances, though, is whole 'nother question.

That probably brings this full circle. If ZiPS is projecting nearly 500 plate appearances for a possible fifth outfielder, while not listing him in the graphic as an outfield option and the No. 4 DH option, you should probably take most of this with a grain of salt. There is no doubt some good stuff in the ZiPS projections for you to digest, just don't take it as a single source for predicting the future.

Plus, who knows when A.J. Preller will add a bat to the first base-DH mix or another arm to the rotation?