Padres Aren't Done Overhauling the Rotation Just Yet

At the outset of the offseason, there was perhaps no more need more urgent for any team in Major League Baseball than that of the San Diego Padres needing to add to their starting rotation. A group that already didn't run deep saw Dylan Cease depart in free agency, will be without Yu Darvish for the entirety of 2026, and made the early choice to keep each of Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon in relief, leaving a fairly dire situation with which to contend. Nick Pivetta was the only sure-thing starter on the 40-man roster when the winter began. 

A.J. Preller has since taken measures to address it. Michael King is back on a new three-year deal. Kyle Hart was brought back on a one-year deal as a swingman, while he, minor league signing Triston McKenzie, and holdovers JP Sears, Matt Waldron, and Randy Vásquez will likely fight it out this spring for a role in the latter portion of the rotation. With a Joe Musgrove return on the horizon as well, the starting side of things looks, at least, a bit better than it did back in November. 

The work isn't done, however. 

San Diego has a largely fortified roster. While they still need to add to their lineup to address either first base or designated hitter, the positional group is sorted and set for 2026. The bullpen, even with the departure of Robert Suárez, remains one of the more notable individual strengths of any team in the league. It's a group that, on paper, should be able to make a run toward October for the third consecutive season... if Preller can make at least one more addition to the rotation. 

As of right now, FanGraphs' depth charts have Pivetta leading the way in start share (21 percent), followed by King (19 percent), and Musgrove (17 percent). While the percentages are different, Baseball Prospectus projects Pivetta (18 percent), Musgrove (17 percent), and King (15 percent) as the top trio, as well. Nothing surprising there. And while the remaining spots are also the same — with Vásquez assuming the fourth spot and Sears the fifth on both sites — between the two, Baseball Prospectus actually presents less time for each and more time for Waldron in a starting role. FanGraphs, though, likes Hart more for the sixth spot as the first man up. Where the two sites differ is as strong an indicator as any that work remains in the rotation. 

But at this stage of the offseason, it remains to be seen from where further reinforcements could emerge. Widely-known organizational context tells you that the Padres are running thin on money to spend. This leaves the likes of Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Ranger Suárez out of the team's reach. They also lack the resources in the minor leagues to make a trade for a notable arm, especially the Tarik Skubal's or Hunter Greene's or Freddy Peralta's of the world. So, where does Preller go from here?

It's important to consider, in asking that question, that the Padres don't need a frontline starter. With King in place and Musgrove's return on the horizon, they'll combine with Pivetta to create a steady and solid top three in their starting corps. More often than not, they'll get the team into the middle innings before the bullpen can take over. What the Padres need is innings. History indicates that the other names to fill out the back end are more prone to short outings. That could put a lot of extra stress on long relief and, more importantly, the top-tier leverage arms. It's not about Skubal or even Gallen, but rather about finding stability for at least one of those final two spots.

From a free agent standpoint, someone like Lucas Giolito could make sense. He carries a certain level of health risk, but he's averaged 5.8 innings per start when he's been in the mix. He's also likely to get a short-term deal. Old friend Nick Martinez served a swingman role in Cincinnati late in the year, but averaged 5.7 as a starter with the Reds (even if his performance took a step back from "good" to more "average" between 2024 and 2025). Those two would at least present the Padres with a certain level of short-term stability that they need. The options, though, get less inspiring the further you search.

The trade market is less clear. We know about the top arms available, but less about those who could be moved at a cost the Padres can actually afford. Perhaps someone like Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller makes sense there. Is there a framework around Keller and Jake Cronenworth? We've also previously discussed Kodai Senga as a target, though he's not without plenty of risk. 

Ultimately, a majority of teams head into the offseason without their rotation completely solidified. No. 5 spots, in particular, often remain in flux. With King signed, the Padres aren't in as much peril as they once were this winter. However, they're clearly a team in need of adding at least one more starter to the mix in order to feel better about their group heading into the spring exhibition slate.