Rotation, Bullpen Or El Paso: Analytically Breaking Down JP Sears' Arsenal

[Randy Holt]

When the San Diego Padres traded for Mason Miller last year, the attention was (obviously, and entirely justifiably) squared on the acquisition of one of the hardest throwers in Major League Baseball. But there was also an underrated component of the trade that existed in the form of JP Sears. While not spectacular, there was a stable element that Sears could, in theory, provide to a team in need of future depth in the starting rotation. A steady arm who won’t reach free agency until 2029? That’s the kind of profile the Padres should seek to work into every trade that an ambitious executive like A.J. Preller likes to make.

Across five starts with San Diego to close out 2025, however, the results weren’t quite there even for an arm with modest expectations. Sears threw 24 2/3 innings across five starts that culminated in a 5.47 ERA and even-worse 6.18 FIP. His strikeout rate sat at just 18.0 percent, while opposing hitters slugged .580 against the lefty. That ran the total body of work up to a 5.04 ERA, 5.21 FIP, and 0.4 fWAR across 27 total starts split between the Athletics and Padres. 

Perhaps unlike his comrade in the depth mix (Kyle Hart), however, Sears presents some intrigue. He’s never been a high-strikeout arm. It’s difficult to expect that with 15th percentile fastball velocity (91.9 MPH), anyway. Where Sears should, ideally, excel is in his ability to avoid walks and work his way around hard contact. 

JP Sears’ Stuff

Sears, technically, works with seven different pitches. His most-used pitch is his four-seamer, which moves effectively in a horizontal fashion. The 11.9 inches of arm side run he gets out of it is actually better than comparable arms. He’s able to play each of the sweeper and changeup off it effectively, leveraging a relatively average sweeper against hitters of the same handedness and throwing his changeup to good effect against the other side. Having 16.5 inches of horizontal movement to the arm side — featuring a similar shape to that of his four-seamer — is an effective manner of doing business. 

Despite that, Sears is prone to flyball contact and lacks the upside with any pitch to generate whiffs. That led to opponents slugging .534 against the four-seam and .500 against the changeup. His sweeper was the only pitch to feature a positive run value, which feels logical given the effectiveness of that pitch against hitters of the same handedness as a general practice. 

Somewhat like the aforementioned Hart, Sears throws out of a shallow arm angle and works side-to-side. Pitchers who do so that also possess less upside are going to have a tougher time evading impact outcomes against good hitters in the absence of the changing of eye levels. Even through all of that, intrigue remains over what Sears could provide as a member of the staff in 2026. 

JP Sears’ Arsenal

Sears’ arsenal is indicative of intent across his three primary pitches. Considering the volume of those three against the remaining four that he allegedly threw in 2025, it’s almost worth dismissing the rest as being mis-labeled due to their shape. Despite the minimal arsenal that persists as a result, there’s an argument that Sears’ pitch mix and subsequent usage suit him well for what he’s aiming to do. 

The four-seam is going to be a factor against hitters of either handedness. It moves in toward lefty hitters and away from the right-handed types. The issue is its location. Sears spent a lot of time squarely in the middle of the zone with that pitch, often using that pitch to get ahead early in counts. That was especially true upon his arrival in August where opposing hitters swung first pitch on the four-seamer 46.4 percent of the time. The issue there is that it’s his pitch where hitters found the highest rate of hard contact (46.0 percent) against a low whiff rate (20.5 percent). His horizontal movement allows him to evade genuinely terrible outcomes more than he probably should, but his presence up in the zone means a difficult needle to thread with it. 

What Sears does have going for him, though, is that the sweeper and change each play well off of it. The sweeper offers something in the vertical department, while the changeup is as close to a change in eye levels as he can establish in its working more down-and-in to right-handed hitters. The stuff can certainly be effective even with a limited ceiling. It’s just a matter of proper deployment. 

What Should JP Sears’ Role Be In 2026?

Assuming full health early for Joe Musgrove, the Padres have three locks in their rotation to start 2026. If we assume that Randy Vásquez has the inside track courtesy of a strong finish last year, that leaves just one spot to start the year for Sears and a smattering of depth signings. 

Sears doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling. But the Padres are in a situation where they don’t really need it out of the backend of their rotation. They have a dominant bullpen, and one imagines that at least one or two of those depth signings may offer some volume in relief. What they seek as a result is stability. In his brief career at the top level, Sears had made strides in his percentile placement in both his walk rate and his hard-hit rate. That could help him to an early advantage in the race, as you know exactly what you’re getting out of the profile in mitigating a baserunning presence. To say nothing of the fact that he’s a left-handed thrower in a group full of righties. 

It’s difficult to envision someone such as Sears in a relief setting quite yet. A soft-tosser with more than two pitches can contribute to a starting staff in such a way as providing a stable, innings-consuming arm. If it’s not the Padres rotation out of camp, it’s likely the El Paso starting group for him in March and April.

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