Rotation, Bullpen or El Paso: Analytically Breaking Down Walker Buehler's Arsenal

[Steve Drumwright]

When it comes to the current version of Walker Buehler, it is easy to think of the meme from "Ferris Bueller's Day Off," where the teacher is taking attendance and asks, "Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?"

MLB fans have been asking the same question since the right-handed starter returned in 2024 following Tommy John surgery costing him most of the 2022 season and all of 2023.

"Anyone? Anyone?"

The former Los Angeles Dodgers star is now with the San Diego Padres, having formalized a minor-league contract this week with no guarantee of a major-league job, just an opportunity with a team that is in desperate need of rotation depth.

His fall is fairly stunning when you consider that, even at the end of a disappointing 2024 campaign, Buehler was still called upon to get the final three outs of the World Series in the clinching Game 5 vs. the New York Yankees after a five-inning start in Game 3.

But here we are. Buehler made 16 starts in 2024, coming back in May from Tommy John surgery, then missing nearly two months with right hip inflammation. He turned in a 5.54 FIP over 75⅓ innings, with walk (8.1%) and strikeout (18.6%) rates that were the worst of his career as he was set to hit free agency. The Dodgers gave him a qualifying offer, but Buehler declined the $21.05 million deal and eventually signed for that same sum with the Boston Red Sox.

Buehler's time on the opposite coast didn't go well. His walk and strikeout rates declined again to 10.8% and 16.5%, respectively, with his FIP landing at 5.89 in 22 starts and one relief appearance. The Red Sox released Buehler late in the season, and he was scooped up by the Philadelphia Phillies. Pitching in three games, starting twice, he did well in that brief showcase for the NL East champs. In fact, his last seven appearances showed some improvement from the rest of his 2025.

Now, Buehler joins a suddenly competitive battle for the last two spots in the Padres' rotation. Right-handers Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove are the top three. Returnee Randy Vasquez headlines the battle for the last two spots, entering camp as the No. 4. But since then, the Friars added Buehler and right-handers German Marquez and Griffin Canning to the race with another returning player, left-hander JP Sears, as well as non-roster invitees Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie. Musgrove is coming off Tommy John surgery and is throwing in camp, while Canning's 2025 ended with a left Achilles injury that could sideline him for the first few months of the upcoming season.

Walker Buehler's Stuff

Having pitched in 2025, thus having some distance from his elbow surgery, we won't really consider his 2024 performance and instead will look at his pre-Tommy John numbers to compare both versions of Buehler.

As you might imagine, there are some dramatic differences in Buehler's pitch movement from 2022 to 2025. One pitch that did stay the same was his four-seam fastball, which has very similar movement compared to league averages, while his knuckle curve drops 0.9 inches more. His cutter gained 0.4 inches in break over the MLB average (plus two inches in rise). His sweeper had the biggest jump with 2.5 inches more break than average, while his sinker lost an inch of tail and his changeup two inches of tail.

That movement difference becomes more important when you notice that many of his Statcast categories went from pretty good (in the red) to well below average (blue). His fastball velocity went from the 73rd percentile to the 43rd and his chase rate went from the 75th to the 20th. It takes time to learn how to pitch when your stuff deteriorates, and he might not have had quite enough of that experimentation period with the Dodgers in 2024 due to the hip injury costing him two months.

Walker Buehler's Arsenal

Buehler actually added a pitch when he came back. He sprinkled in a slider a little bit in 2024 at 0.8%, which then surged to 14.9% in 2025, mainly against right-handed batters (20%). The slider checked in at 96.6 mph. His fastball didn't dip a whole lot in velocity, going from 95.2 mph in 2022 to 94 mph in 2025, but it went from just above average to just below average with the league-wide rise in velocity (94.3 mph to 95 mph). That led to a slight drop in usage, going from 28.9% to 25.3%.

How Buehler deployed his cutter, knuckle curve and sinker also changed. His cutter remained his No. 2 pitch, but dropped from 25% usage to 16.9% as the velocity ticked down from 91.5 mph to 90.6. The sinker made a huge jump in usage, going from just 4.1% up to 16.4%, while the velocity dropped from 94.8 mph to 93.8 in becoming his third pitch. After his slider was introduced, the knuckle curve saw a drop from 16.8% usage to 12.9%. The changeup rounds out his repertoire and went down in usage as well, from 7.8% to 6.9%.

There's an obvious Occam's Razor answer in play to help Buehler. He's diversified his arsenal to the point that he's lost any semblance of a traditional "out pitch", and one has to wonder if he wouldn't benefit from honing in on his best three or four pitches, rather than trying to squeeze out league-average production from six of them.

Year	Pitch Type	#	# RHB	# LHB	%	MPH	PA	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	SO	BBE	BA	XBA	SLG	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	EV	LA	Spin	Ext.	Whiff%	PutAway%
2025	Four Seamer	554	221	333	25.3	94.0	113	94	26	16	2	0	8	14	81	.277	.297	.553	.639	.402	.439	92.6	15	2249	6.5	15.0	10.4
2025	Cutter	370	128	242	16.9	90.6	97	85	30	19	5	1	5	7	78	.353	.337	.612	.556	.442	.417	85.4	13	2414	6.5	19.3	11.7
2025	Sinker	359	214	145	16.4	93.8	111	89	18	16	2	0	0	23	66	.202	.262	.225	.348	.288	.349	89.4	7	2123	6.5	7.4	24.5
2025	Slider	327	189	138	14.9	87.5	87	76	23	19	2	0	2	10	66	.303	.284	.408	.449	.356	.363	87.8	13	2525	6.6	21.8	9.1
2025	Knuckle Curve	282	34	248	12.9	77.4	65	61	17	11	3	0	3	15	46	.279	.229	.475	.375	.345	.285	85.4	9	2435	6.6	24.8	14.0
2025	Changeup	150	6	144	6.9	89.7	43	39	10	8	1	0	1	13	27	.256	.163	.359	.225	.290	.204	87.2	5	1560	6.5	21.7	21.3
2025	Sweeper	147	147	0	6.7	80.8	48	46	6	2	1	0	3	10	36	.130	.209	.348	.362	.219	.262	80.8	13	2715	6.6	34.1	13.7
2024	Four Seamer	386	163	223	28.9	95.0	90	79	27	15	4	0	8	9	71	.342	.330	.696	.659	.462	.450	92.3	16	2279	6.5	16.9	9.8
2024	Cutter	279	93	186	20.9	91.2	69	63	15	10	2	1	2	14	49	.238	.214	.397	.321	.307	.272	84.0	8	2417	6.6	21.5	19.4
2024	Knuckle Curve	256	54	202	19.2	78.0	60	54	15	9	3	1	2	18	37	.278	.282	.481	.457	.348	.347	89.6	17	2566	6.6	26.7	18.8
2024	Sinker	219	182	37	16.4	94.8	64	55	16	14	2	0	0	7	48	.291	.228	.327	.279	.325	.286	83.8	2	2140	6.5	11.5	13.0
2024	Sweeper	116	116	0	8.7	82.6	37	34	5	3	0	0	2	13	21	.147	.160	.324	.256	.238	.223	82.4	8	2698	6.6	28.8	22.0
2024	Changeup	69	1	68	5.2	90.0	23	22	10	5	4	0	1	3	19	.455	.310	.773	.473	.529	.353	92.1	10	1564	6.5	8.8	13.6
2024	Slider	11	10	1	0.8	86.2	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1.000	.437	4.000	1.522	2.050	.797	98.7	27	2569	6.5	33.3	0.0
2022	Four Seamer	363	157	206	34.7	95.2	92	80	30	20	5	0	5	9	71	.375	.307	.625	.599	.463	.423	92.1	16	2267	6.5	13.5	10.2
2022	Cutter	262	123	139	25.0	91.5	67	64	15	12	3	0	0	13	51	.234	.275	.281	.372	.247	.303	81.9	2	2411	6.5	26.6	23.2
2022	Knuckle Curve	176	18	158	16.8	79.2	44	41	7	5	1	0	1	10	31	.171	.217	.268	.365	.223	.281	86.4	2	2662	6.5	30.2	18.2
2022	Sweeper	120	120	0	11.5	83.5	31	31	6	3	1	0	2	14	17	.194	.166	.419	.338	.260	.212	85.9	13	2673	6.5	39.1	24.1
2022	Changeup	82	5	77	7.8	90.5	29	29	4	2	1	1	0	10	19	.138	.182	.241	.293	.160	.204	87.0	-7	1550	6.4	31.3	22.2
2022	Sinker	43	38	5	4.1	94.8	11	10	5	4	1	0	0	2	8	.500	.403	.600	.540	.499	.432	95.4	1	2161	6.3	10.5	40.0

What Should Walker Buehler's Role Be In 2026?

If Buehler did find something in his final seven appearances and fine tunes that under the watch of pitching coach Ruben Niebla this spring, he definitely deserves a spot in the rotation and has perhaps the most upside of any of the candidates mentioned above considering his past performance.

He made it through 2025 without any known injuries, so this offseason was likely spent figuring out how to use the weapons he has effectively. With two open spots in the rotation and a handful of players battling to be on the Opening Day roster, Buehler has every opportunity to be in the rotation. He has been a starter his entire career, with a limited number of relief appearances, and the Padres' bullpen is already pretty full, so the alternative would be for him to head to Triple-A El Paso, since he did sign a minor-league deal, should things not go his way during spring training.

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