Fernando Tatis Jr. Needs to Blend Revamped Mechanics & Approach with Power in 2026

[Randy Holt]

With the spring exhibition slate underway, new San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen has already been tinkering with potential lineup options for the 2026 regular season. While there are a couple of individual spots to be settled from a personnel standpoint, the biggest mystery is how the batting order itself could be structured. It’s a puzzle that is made more complicated by a relatively enigmatic presence in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr. 

Tatis Jr. had a very good 2025 season. He turned in a .268/.368/.446 line with an 18.7 K% and 12.9 BB% that each represented a career mark. At 135, his wRC+ was indicative of a player well above average offensively, with 32 steals and the defensive component of his game pushing him up to a 6.1 fWAR mark that represented his best since he posted a 6.8 figure back in 2021. It’s the type of comprehensive performance that merits MVP consideration had it not been for the one element of his game that was notably absent for much of the year: his power. 

A season with 25 home runs and a .178 isolated power number isn’t necessarily something to frown upon. But we know where Tatis Jr. has set the bar in years past (if we’re optimistically assuming the performance-enhancing drug usage that resulted in a suspension was a one-off). He also started hot in the power game in 2025, posting a .257 ISO in April. That latter figure dropped significantly in May (.184), further in June (.102), and stayed low until he drove it back up with a .256 ISO in September. 

There are certainly mechanical reasons for last season’s power dip. On one hand, it looked like he was caught in between some changes to his footwork. Here is the 2024 season, when the ISO was up to .216: 

And here’s 2025: 

The changes aren’t wildly obvious to the eye, especially given that his positioning in the box and the intercept point all remained relatively similar. However, the distance between his feet and the stance, which went from 29 degrees open in 2024 to 38 degrees in 2025, could impact timing. 

While even less revealing, it’s possible that we can glean some further information from Tatis Jr’s actual swing, too. Here it is in 2024: 

Note the above average bat speed and the quality attack angle. Especially in comparison with 2025: 

Tatis Jr’s bat came through the zone just a touch slower, and the attack angle fell to eight degrees. Within all of this, you’re also talking about a player who experienced a severe drop in his barrel rate. In 2024, Tatis Jr. posted a 14.5 percent barrel rate, which ranked in the 92nd percentile. Last year’s iteration saw that percentage fall to 10.9 and 66th. Slower, shallower swing, finding the barrel at a lower frequency? It’s no wonder that the ball was on the ground 48.9 percent of the time. It doesn’t help, either, when those angles are all over the place on a month-to-month basis, as Tatis Jr. had no shortage of variance in attack angle and direction depending on the time of year.

For what it’s worth, Tatis Jr. has already expressed that the mechanical things he was working through last year are behind him. If he can get his way back to generating quality contact and elevating in the way that he did in years past, then one imagines a simple transition back toward his power numbers of old. If it were that simple. Mechanics aren’t the only puzzle that Fernando Tatis Jr. will need to solve ahead of 2026, though. The approach is going to need to steer back in a direction that is more likely to beget power outcomes. Because, somewhere along the line, there was a tradeoff. 

In general, Tatis Jr’s swing rate declined in 2025. He carried a 51.1 Swing% in 2024 before dropping that down to 45.4 percent last season. Both ends of the spectrum were impacted, as he dropped his chase rate by roughly five percent and his zone swing rate by almost four. However, he also made less contact when chasing and, more importantly, wasn’t able to parlay the approach into more success within the strike zone. 

Within the zone, Tatis Jr bumped his contact rate up about one percent. At least some of that is due to the fact that he was active on offspeed pitches inside the zone, which was his highest whiff source among the three pitch groups. With that approach, he swung at four percent fewer fastballs inside the strike zone (69.3 percent). While this development unfolded, his barrel rate on fastballs fell more than five percent (10.0). It seems as if Tatis Jr was attempting to become more patient in a broad sense, but perhaps was not consciously devoted to the actual pitch types. Instead, the zone was the focus, which inhibited his ability to be as active on the type of pitch responsible for his power outcomes in the years prior. 

The thing that’s ironic about the number of factors that led to Tatis Jr.’s 2025 production is that it’s still good production. This is an elite baseball player with an elite skill set. That means that even caught in between mechanical or approach adjustments, production is still there. In his case, though, we’re looking for more of it on the power side. It’s clear that Tatis Jr himself was working through some stuff at the plate last year. If he is genuinely clear of that, then the offseason reset could compound with what was already there to manifest in a fascinatingly strong 2026 campaign. 

The Padres and their overall lack of collective power sure would like that.

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[Lando]

It's easy to pinpoint the turning point in Fernando's season. It was May 2nd in Pittsburgh. Going into that game he was hitting .345 with 8 HR's. Then he got hit on the forearm and his numbers plummeted. I think getting hit not only affected him physically, but even more mentally. He was on pace for 43 HR's prior to getting hit. Then he really seemed nervous to hang in on inside pitched and drive them. He found himself again at the end of the season, hitting 7 HR's in his final 20 games, which averages out to 57 HR's over a full season. I think his power numbers will be just fine in 2026.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Lando said:

It's easy to pinpoint the turning point in Fernando's season. It was May 2nd in Pittsburgh. Going into that game he was hitting .345 with 8 HR's. Then he got hit on the forearm and his numbers plummeted. I think getting hit not only affected him physically, but even more mentally. He was on pace for 43 HR's prior to getting hit. Then he really seemed nervous to hang in on inside pitched and drive them. He found himself again at the end of the season, hitting 7 HR's in his final 20 games, which averages out to 57 HR's over a full season. I think his power numbers will be just fine in 2026.

Welcome to Padres Mission!

Yeah, I think Tatis will be fine, though it's interesting to see the mechanics of his swing.