History Says German Marquez, Michael King Will Be OK After Pitching in Mexico City

[TomCent]

The Padres are home this.week after completing a challenging road trip of three days each in Denver and Mexico City. A series at a mile-high elevation was followed by a series at almost a mile-and-a-half elevation. Players didn't have much time to readjust to being at sea level, either. The club opened a three-game series against the Chicago Cubs on Monday night after playing at Estadio Alfedo Harp Helu in Mexico City on Sunday afternoon.

There are reams of data on the challenges of playing in Denver -- the ball flies, pitches move differently than elsewhere, bodies wear down more. It's reasonable to assume that Mexico City presents similar issues even though MLB plays just two games a year there. The thinner air has to have some effect.

The Padres' opponent in Mexico City, the Arizona Diamondbacks, believed that to be the case. They kept starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Soroka away rather than expose them to the elements. Those two were scheduled to pitch Wednesday and Thursday in Milwaukee, respectively.

Did the handful of Mexico City games justify the trepidation? Is there a major short-term effect on starting pitchers who throw there? And. because this is a Padres site, should fans expect German Marquez and Michael King, the team's starters in Mexico City, to struggle this weekend when they face the Chicago White Sox at Petco Park?

We can use the 2023 and 2024 Mexico City series -- Padres vs. San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies -- as rough guides. This is how the eight starters in those four games pitched in their next outing:

2023, Padres vs. Giants

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	NP/ST
Joe Musgrove	5	2	1	0	3	5	81/49
Yu Darvish	6.2	4	2	1	1	6	94/68
Alex Cobb	7	5	0	0	2	5	107/68
Sean Manaea	5	6	4	3	2	6	94/63

2024, Astros vs. Rockies

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	NP/ST
Ronel Blanco	6	5	3	3	2	6	94/60
Framber Valdez	5.1	9	5	5	1	3	91/58
Cal Quantrill	7.2	3	0	0	0	9	99/66
Austin Gomber	6	4	0	0	2	3	88/56

Only Valdez had a bad follow-up start. Everyone else was mediocre to excellent.

One reason might be that the majority of these pitchers got an extra day of rest and recovery. Only Darvish and Manaea made their next start on four days' rest. Five pitchers went on five days' rest. Musgrove pitched on seven days' rest, in his third start following a toe fracture. Marquez and King will be working on five days' rest as well, thanks to the team's off-day Thursday. (The Padres lost two of three to the Cubs and were outscored in the series 20-16.)

Another encouraging sign on Marquez is that he threw just 75 pitches (52 strikes) over six innings Saturday. Most importantly, he has a decade of experience adjusting to changes in altitude as a member of the Rockies' staff. 

King is the more interesting case.

First, he altered his pitch mix Sunday. He threw his four-seamer, changeup and slider more than usual, his sinker a lot less than usual, and his sweeper the same as usual. (All percentages via Baseball Savant.)

Pitch	Season%	Sunday%
Sinker	27.8	11.3
Changeup	27.4	30.2
Sweeper	19.9	19.8
Four-seamer	19.8	28.3
Slider	5.5	10.4

Second, he threw a season-high 106 pitches in his six innings. That effort followed a 105-pitch start his previous time out. That is a heavy workload in today's baseball.

This weekend, he'll face a young White Sox lineup that came into April 30 tied for seventh in the majors in home runs but fourth in strikeouts. The matchup can mask the negative effects from Mexico City and/or the high pitch counts.

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