Adrian Morejon Remains the Padres' Quintessential Set-up Man

[Randy Holt]

As expected, the San Diego Padres have one of the best corps of relief pitchers in Major League Baseball. Their 4.15 ERA ranks surprisingly in the middle of the road, but a strikeout rate (23.1 percent) that sits in 11th place and an 9.1 percent walk rate that serves as the 12th-best mark in the league is more indicative of their talent. Their 53.4 percent groundball rate tops the league, and their 27.1 percent hard-hit rate is also in the top three. But it hasn’t all been perfect. 

Particularly in the matters of one Adrian Morejon. 

One of the issues that this bullpen faces is some misfortune in the batted ball game. Their .308 BABIP allowed to opposing hitters is one of the seven highest averages in the league, leaving a strand rate (70.5 percent) that’s floating more around the middle of the pack rather than what many of the other underlying figures might peg them to be. Morejon has been a sort of microcosm of these trends. 

Morejon’s surface numbers look rough. Through 16 innings of work, he’s pitched to a 5.63 ERA and a 55.6 percent strand rate. His 16.7 percent homer rate is abnormally high, too. Only Ron Marinaccio’s ERA sits higher, and Jeremiah Estrada (and his minuscule sample) is the only pitcher with a lower LOB% than Morejon (40.0). For a member of the contingent that was supposed to be the late-inning bridge to Mason Miller – alongside Estrada, Jason Adam, and, to a lesser extent, David Morgan – the output thus far has not been what you want. 

An observer who lives off the box score rather than a realistic portrayal might begin to have doubts about Morejon’s standing in the bullpen. Even at this early stage, the ERA alone is cause for concern. At this point, however, we know that ERA doesn’t tell the whole story, especially for a reliever. Interestingly, nor do any of the other factors through which Morejon is apparently struggling at present. 

This is Morejon’s percentile distribution through his 16 innings of work thus far:

The xERA alone is indicative of a pitcher who doesn’t particularly deserved the results he’s received to this point (for what it’s worth, he also has a 2.74 FIP). He’s always lived in something of a paradox where the stuff is excellent and the whiffs are high, but the strikeouts are not. Morejon has furthered those trends throughout his small 2026 sample. Each of the chase and whiff rates look strong, with barrel, hard hit, and walk rates that are indicative of a pitcher who is in command of his stuff. It’s been more a matter of misfortune than anything. 

That misfortune works against Morejon both in strict outcomes (.354 BABIP) but also in the sample. Fourteen appearances comprise those 16 innings. On April 7 in Pittsburgh, Morejon allowed four runs in just one-third of an inning, with another two allowed against Colorado on April 10. Since that point, Morejon hasn’t allowed a run in six of eight appearances. He’s also struck out 12 hitters, walked only three, and hasn’t allowed a hit in five of those appearances. 

Suffice it to say, the version of Morejon that exists in reality is the one that was expected to lock down the late innings ahead of Miller. A pitcher with a combination of upper-tier stuff that induces plenty of whiff and the gaudy 65.3 percent groundball rate he’s posted thus far is one that is a nightmare for opposing hitters. If all hope is abandoned as an opposing hitter when Miller steps to the mound in the ninth, it’s not as if much room for optimism exists an inning or two earlier.

That was the expectation coming into the year, and it remains reality. Regardless of what the ERA or other surface-level data may indicate, Morejon has been every bit as good as expected. Once the sample size grows, the numbers should easily illustrate such without the need for all of this extra analysis.

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