Padres' Rotating Cast of Offensive Saviors Has Landed on A New Leading Man

[Brendan Dentino]

In a season in which Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are performing far below expectations, the San Diego Padres have had to rely on a motley crew of journeymen. Miguel Andujar was the Padres’ best hitter in March and April (just don’t ask about May and June). Gavin Sheets and his career -1.4 bWAR has the best OPS among the team’s regulars. Now, the latest savior is designated hitter Will Wagner. Wagner, the son of Hall of Fame reliever Billy Wagner, has an .828 OPS in ten games for the Pads and more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). Can it last?

Wagner spent four years at Liberty University, then was a mid-round selection by the Houston Astros in 2021. He made his major-league debut in 2024 with the Toronto Blue Jays, and last year he played 40 appearances for the eventual American League champions before being traded to the Padres. Only now, in his age-27 season, is he getting regular playing time, and that’s only because shortstop Xander Bogaerts' brief absence created a roster spot on the underperforming, injury-riddled big league squad.

Wagner does have an .827 lifetime OPS in the minors, but his last double-digit home run season came in 2022. He hit ten that year. It’s his on-base percentage that boosts his production, and that’s driven by a high batting average; he’s a career .291 hitter in the minors. With just 27 stolen bases in the minors and one in the majors, Wagner leaves little doubt about what he is: a solid contact hitter. The questions are if that profile has a place in the major leagues today, and if he can sustain that profile in the bigs.

To the latter, some underlying statistics look encouraging. It’s a small sample size, but his chase rate and walk percentage are elite. His whiff and strikeout rates are also good. That means he swings at good pitches and lays off bad pitches, which in turn means he’s more likely to get on base. Conversely, he doesn’t swing hard and doesn't hit the ball hard—he hasn’t pulled the ball in the air all season. Naturally, he's not going to produce much power. He needs to walk and hit for contact to be a valuable major leaguer, a difficult proposition in a game full of Skubals and Misiorowskis. 

But so far for the Padres, he’s done just that. He’s batting .318 on the season, and he has gotten on base in all but two of his starts. His high walk percentage has made him a high on-base gem for the Friars. There are warning signs in those numbers, though. His expected batting average is just .287, and he quite literally can’t hit lefties (he’s batting .000 against them). His walk rate is also more than double his career average, putting into question its sustainability.

Considering all this, Wagner profiles, at best, as a useful platoon bat, and like all platoon hitters, they get exposed when they play everyday. The Padres have been able to hide him against lefties—his .000 average against them is from just two plate appearances—but since being called up from Triple-A on June 9, Wagner has played basically every day. The Padres are smart to wield the hot bat, but the stats indicate that it won’t be long before they’re looking for their next offensive savior.

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