2026 MLB Mock Draft: With The 21st Pick, The Padres Draft A Fast-Rising College Lefty

[Jamie Cameron]

I take MLB mock draft rankings from major industry outlets like MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic (and many others) to form a consensus board, with a working hypothesis that using this approach will eliminate some of the noise and variance in MLB Draft mock rankings.

The San Diego Padres’ first five picks are:

• Round 1: 21st Overall
• Round 2: 60th Overall
• Round 3: 97th Overall
• Round 4: 124th Overall
• Compensation Round: 134th Overall

Round 1: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State

Carlon is one of the fastest-rising college arms in 2026 in a demographic that has suffered from injuries and inconsistent performance. After contributing to the Sun Devils immediately as a freshman bullpen arm, Carlon improved his sophomore season significantly, cutting his ERA in half and flashing far more dominant stuff.

It's a good-looking delivery from Carlon. While there aren't outlier release traits, he hides the ball well during his delivery and has an ideal pitcher's frame at 6'5, 220 pounds. He's moved from the bullpen to a starting role in 2026. The results have been spectacular. Carlon had a 4.30 FIP through 83.2 innings of work this season while striking out 38% of hitters.

The stuff is as explosive as ever, his fastball sits 94-96 mph, but he's run it up to 100 mph. His slider is one of the best in the class, a mid-80s gyro offering that generates a ton of swing-and-miss. Carlon mixes in a curveball and a changeup too.

There's still some refinement needed to the strike throwing, but Carlon's walk rate has improved from 11.3% in 2025 to 8.9% in 2026. Carlon is looking like a first-round prospect with starter traits who should move quickly as a pro.

Round 2: Joseph Contreras, RHP, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (GA)

Joseph Contreras, son of Jose Contreras, is a tall, lean, prep pitcher currently committed to Vanderbilt who took center stage for a brief moment in the WBC as a 17-year-old, competing for Brazil against a stacked Team USA lineup.

Contreras' fastball sits 94-97 mph and has been up to 100 mph. It's a quick arm, and one can see him sustaining his velocity more consistently with a bit of added weight and strength. For secondaries, there's a mid-80s slider that holds good spin rates and flashes above average to plus, a changeup in the low-80s with good fade, and a split-change/forkball he throws in the high 70s-low 80s that dies at the plate and flashes plus.

That's a ton of weapons and velo for a frame still growing and adding strengths who will turn 18 just before the draft. The sky is the limit for Contreras, assuming health and enough strikes with consistency.

Round 3: Bo Holloway, LHP, Nolensville HS (TN)

Holloway is a large-framed left-handed prep pitcher at 6'5, currently committed to Vanderbilt University. After working with former Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey this year, Holloway has taken a step forward in every area of his game. It's at least a plus fastball, with good carry from a steep angle and high vertical release. It's ticked up in velocity in the past twelve months, and now sits 94-96 mph while grabbing 98 mph.

Holloway's secondary arsenal could use some polish. He has an above-average changeup, with good fade and tumble. He hasn't shown a ton of aptitude for spin, as yet, with a fringy slider being his only breaking pitch.

The delivery looks good, though, and Holloway is managing plenty of strikes. If he can figure out a breaking pitch that works, it'll be a significant breakthrough for him.

Curious to see the players around the San Diego Padres picks in the draft? Click on the button below to view the entire mock draft board!

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