3 Reasons Why Padres Will Win the NL West, and 3 Reasons They Won't

We all know there is a huge obstacle standing in the way of the San Diego Padres winning the NL West. That is that team just up the coast a couple hours that has won the last two World Series.

So, it will take a Herculean effort for the Friars to knock the Los Angeles Dodgers from the top spot in the division. The good news is they have players on their roster capable of delivering such performances.

Here are three reasons why the Padres will be on top of the NL West after 162 games... and three reasons the will come up shy.

The Padres will win the West because...

Fernando Tatis Jr. explodes

There just feels like there is an extra bit of aura around superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. entering the 2026 season. The right fielder is the Friars' most dynamic player and has a slash line of .266/.344/.459 over the last three seasons, averaging 23.7 homers, 66 RBIs and 24 steals. Tatis has not had a 30-homer, 30-steal base season in his six seasons, coming close with 42 homers and 25 steals in 2021, the year before his 80-game suspension for using a performance-enhancing drug. He finally came close again in 2025 at 25-32.

But 30-30 certainly seems like it should be a routine part of his stat line. The 27-year-old had a terrific World Baseball Classic for the Dominican Republic, putting up a .400/.538/.700 slash line with two impressive homers, including a grand slam. That could certainly be the fuel to get him going early in 2026.

Tatis has seemingly put the rough 2023 campaign behind him, in which he at first was returning from offseason shoulder surgery and then the suspension. With a fresh start under manager Craig Stammen, Tatis could be ready to erupt.

Michael King contends for the Cy Young

This would certainly be a double-edged sword for the Friars. In his first two seasons with the Padres following the Juan Soto with the New York Yankees, the right-handed starter posted a 3.65 FIP, with an 8.6% walk rate and 26.8% strikeout rate.

King is coming off a 2025 in which he made only 15 starts due to an issue with the long thoracic nerve in his throwing shoulder and then knee inflammation after returning. That was supposed to set him up for free agency. Instead of striking it big on the open market, though, King came back to San Diego on a player-friendly three-year, $75 million contract in which he has opt-outs after this season and 2027. He is making $17 million this year, then $28 million in 2027 and $30 million in 2028. Basically, he is betting on himself this year, with a soft landing of sticking around for at least another year if things don't go quite right.

The 31-year-old opens the season as the No. 2 starter, but could easily become the No. 1 if takes the next step in his career.

Nick Castellanos crushes

Could we be in for a Nick Castellanos renaissance? While he won't play the Philadelphia Phillies until Memorial Day weekend at Petco Park and make his not-so-triumphant return to the City of Brotherly Love from June 2-4, he will certainly be motivated by the unceremonious departure from the team.

The Padres will be the beneficiary of whatever Castellanos produces as they are paying him the MLB minimum while the Phillies, who released him at the beginning of spring training, are on the hook for the remaining $20 million he is making this year. In his four years with the Phillies, Castellanos had a .260/.306/.426 slash line, averaging 20.5 homers and 81.5 RBIs.

Now playing first base and designated hitter, with perhaps some time in the outfield corners, the veteran slugger could return to form with a renewed focus on hitting. Castellanos had a career-high 34 homers with the Cincinnati Reds in 2021, the year before he signed with Philly. Hitting in the middle of the Friars' lineup could get him the opportunity to for just his second 30-homer season as he enters his 14th year.

The Padres won't win the NL West because...

Joe Musgrove doesn't bounce back

As the guy from El Cajon who authored the first no-hitter in Padres history, Joe Musgrove will always hold a special place in Friars fans' hearts. But the right-handed starter's comeback from Tommy John surgery hasn't gone as expected this spring.

Java Joe entered camp having declared that he was healthy and ready to go for the season, but he made only one appearance, an exhibition against Great Britain's World Baseball Classic team, and threw 60 pitches in two innings. While you can question that workload in his first game since the 2024 postseason, the bottom line is that Musgrove's arm didn't respond well.

That led to him being placed on the 15-day injured list to begin the season. When he resumes his throwing program and returns to MLB rotation is to be determined; it could be a quick return or it could take more time. Also, the production from a pitcher on the comeback trail seems to take a while to return to previous levels. Add it all up, and you have a very wobbly foundation in the middle of the team's rotation.

Manny Machado begins to decline

Manny Machado has been a fairly steady part of the Padres since signing before the 2019 season. But as the third baseman is now 33 years old, the Friars want to keep the seven-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner in peak freshness. That is one reason why the president of baseball operations A.J. Preller brought in players such as Sung Mun Song and Miguel Andujar, who can spell Machado at the hot corner from time to time.

Whether Machado wants that rest is another discussion, but Stammen certainly wants to keep the third baseman's energy high, whether that means more time at designated hitter or full days off. Machado's average bat speed has gone down from 76.7 mph (96th percentile) in 2023 to 74.5 mph (84th percentile) last year. To be fair, Machado also increased other offensive metrics that allowed him to produce a .275/.335/.460 slash line (right near his career numbers) with 27 homers and 95 RBIs.

The Padres would certainly take a repeat of that in 2026. But his defensive numbers have also taken a hit; both his arm strength and range have taken hits in recent years. The eye test is dubious of such metrics, because it seems on a nightly basis that Machado still provides terrific defense. But maybe the Padres have it right in trying to get their superstar third baseman some extra time off his legs at the hot corner.

The bullpen is overworked and underperforms

There is no question that the Padres are beginning the 2026 season with questions in the starting rotation and the depth behind it. They are counting on Walker Buehler and German Marquez for big innings. But if they fail to respond and their replacements, whether it be Musgrove or Griffin Canning or JP Sears, also don't step up, that will put the pressure on the Friars' bullpen to shoulder the innings load.

That unit was one of the best in MLB a year ago, but also logged the 10th-most innings. The quality of the bullpen hasn't diminished, even with departure of closer Robert Suarez through free agency. Trade-deadline prize Mason Miller takes over as the closer, with everyone else returning.

That depth took a slight hit when Bryan Hoeing required season-ending flexor tendon surgery in his right elbow, which does raise some concerns; if the bullpen is called upon a lot early, that could create an overuse issue with the relievers. There is a little bit of good news coming for that group as Jason Adam (ruptured quad) and Yuki Matsui (strained left groin) should be back at some point in the coming months. Still, the bullpen usage, not considering any further injuries, will be critical in how this team performs.