Can The Padres Recreate An All-Star Closer In The Aggregate?

The Padres snuck past the Atlanta Braves and a dominant Spencer Schwellenbach in a 1-0 game on a chilly Saturday evening at Petco Park, marking their third consecutive win to open the year. In a game with unexpected heroes – Randy Vasquez delivering six scoreless innings, Wandy Peralta and Alek Jacob combining to slam the door, and Yuli Gurriel’s pinch-hit RBI to drive in the game’s lone run – perhaps the most surprising, or at least unfamiliar, thing was the bullpen door opening to the sound of Daddy Yankee’s “Rompe” as Adrian Morejon emerged for the save opportunity. 

In many ways, Shildt’s hands were tied. The usual suspects in Suarez, Adam, and Estrada had thrown 38, 35, and 40 pitches, respectively, across Thursday and Friday. At the start of 2024, this situation may have seen Robert Suarez asked to throw on a third consecutive day. A few months ago, it would call for Tanner Scott. The All-Star closer was a major deadline acquisition from the Marlins and gave the Padres a bonafide, high-leverage lefty to complement Suarez and fellow deadline addition Jason Adam. The addition of Scott allowed the Padres to rest Suarez after consecutive appearances by providing another solid high-leverage option. Scott’s $72 million, 4-year deal with the Dodgers in free agency left the Padres without an established, late-inning reliever from the left side out of the bullpen. Or did it? 

Let’s play manager for a day. Here are four relievers’ numbers for 2024. They range in innings pitched between 61 IP and 72 IP; two are RHP, while two are LHP. Who do you want to give the ball to? 

RHP A: 28.2% K-BB%, 2.07 FIP, 2.65 xFIP, 2.39 SIERA, 125 Pitching+ 

RHP B: 33.3% K-BB%, 2.18 FIP, 2.21 xFIP, 1.91 SIERA, 117 Pitching+ 

LHP C: 18.4% K-BB%, 2.79 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, 3.19 SIERA, 123 Pitching+ 

LHP D: 16.3% K-BB%, 2.92 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 3.55 SIERA, 117 Pitching+

For those unfamiliar with the ERA estimators above, the ten-second explanation is that higher is better for K-BB% (the more people you strike out and the fewer you walk, the fewer runs you’ll allow) and Pitching+, while lower is better for FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, which you’ll recognize are scaled to look like ERA. 

Given the above options and holding all else equal, the clear choice is probably either of the RHPs. They are both better than their LHP counterparts across the board on all metrics aside from Pitching+. “RHP B” is All-Star and youth phenom Mason Miller, while “RHP A” is Palm Desert’s own Jeremiah Estrada. The fireballing Miller is generally regarded as one of the top closers in baseball, bursting onto the scene as a lockdown reliever for the then-Oakland Athletics in 2024 after his 2023 debut as a starter for the A’s was cut short by injury. The fact that Jeremiah Estrada compares favorably to Miller – if a touch behind on metrics like K-BB%, xFIP, and SIERA – is a fact that should inspire a lot of confidence in the Friar Faithful.

“LHP C” and “LHP D” are worth a total of $20 million in 2025 AAV. One is 2024 All-Star Tanner Scott, who the Dodgers are paying an $18 million AAV this season, and one is Adrian Morejon, a 26-year-old owed $2 million by the Padres. Can you tell which is which? Without the aid of FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference, it is difficult to differentiate those two, and in many ways, that is the point of this exercise. All five ERA estimators listed here actually favor, albeit narrowly, Adrian Morejon, who is “LHP C” above. 

Perhaps Scott and Morejon’s similar peripherals are surprising because they fared quite differently, as measured by ERA, in 2024. Tanner Scott posted a full-season career-best 1.75 ERA (his shortened 2020 mark was 1.31) en route to an All-Star selection and deadline blockbuster trade, while Morejon’s 2.83 ERA was also a career-best for him but generated substantially less pomp and circumstance. The better underlying numbers for Morejon certainly caught the eye of the Padres coaches and front office and likely affected his 2025 role. The team announced in February that Morejon would remain in the bullpen this year. The Padres see Morejon’s potential as a high-leverage reliever. Tanner Scott’s departure passes the mantle of high-leverage lefty to him. 

For the Padres to have a successful 2025 season and Tanner Scott’s production, they will need Morejon and Estrada to step into high-leverage innings as Morejon did on Saturday night against the Braves. As dominant as Adam and Suarez are when available, they still need rest days. While the added pressure of save situations against playoff teams may be a new challenge for Morejon and Estrada to overcome, the pair of 26-year-old relievers have the underlying numbers to rival nearly any reliever in baseball, including their former teammate turned division foe. Estrada briefly filled this role early in 2024 before the addition of Adam and Scott, which gave the Padres considerably more bullpen depth, and he and Morejon seem poised to step into it again.

His confidence certainly featured prominently in Reuben Niebla’s message to Morejon during the mound visit six pitches into the 9th inning. After pitching around a dangerous Marcell Ozuna, Morejon missed badly on his first pitch to Ozzie Albies, prompting a visit from his pitching coach. After Niebla returned to the dugout, his reliever needed just four pitches total to retire Albies via flyout and Michael Harris II via groundout before winning an 8-pitch battle against Drake Baldwin to record his first save of the season via the strikeout.

Padres fans have become accustomed to “Bandoleros” and the display from Robert Suarez that follows it to mark the top of the ninth inning. Still, if all goes to plan, they can expect to hear any one of “Rompe” (Adrian Morejon), “Volver Volver” (Jeremiah Estrada), and “Use This Gospel” (Jason Adam) in the 9th inning on days when Suarez is unavailable. The elite backend talent provided by Estrada and Morejon and the expanded role that Tanner Scott’s absence both allows and necessitates afford Mike Shildt and Reuben Niebla the luxury of resting their All-Star closer and confidently giving the ball to either of their 26-year-old relievers.