Casey Mize Assuaged Padres' Concerns In Impressive Bounce-Back Start

When the San Diego Padres acquired starting pitcher Casey Mize from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline, he was part of a pair of moves (in conjunction with Robbie Ray) to stabilize a very fragile rotation for a prospective playoff team. In his first start against the Arizona Diamondbacks back on August 5, though, he was anything but stable. 

In that first start for the Padres, Mize worked through just 3.1 innings. He allowed nine hits, walked three hitters, and struck out only one on his way to allowing eight runs in a blowout loss against a direct Wild Card competitor. While only one swing found its way over the fence, the Snakes' overall quality of contact provided a big issue for Mize in that debut appearance. 

It wasn't just that Mize allowed the nine hits. It was what the Diamondbacks' bats were able to create:

The Diamondbacks were very active in the zone against Mize, creating their nine hits on 18 batted ball events. The problem lies in the fact that 11 different hitters made hard contact versus Mize, with each of his three most-frequently-used pitches—the four-seam, slider, and splitter—seeing average exit velocities over 90 miles-per-hour. 

Luckily for both Mize and the Padres, his second start on Monday night went quite a bit better. Against the Milwaukee Brewers in the series opener, Mize worked through six innings. His strikeout number jumped up to six while he scattered five hits and walked only a pair against the team with baseball's best record. While there wasn't a big shift in terms of the usage, the results were far better: 

Mize's fastball got touched up a decent amount, but he was able to use the slider and splitter more effectively the second time out. It helped that he was up against a team that was a touch less aggressive inside the zone, but his whiff rate graduated from just five percent against Arizona to 17 percent versus Milwaukee. Fewer swings with more effect certainly bodes well for a pitcher trying to bounce back.

What was particularly notable was how little changed with the stuff itself. It all boiled down to improved command. Against the Diamondbacks, Mize threw 55 percent of his first pitches for strikes. That number was up to 64 percent in start No. 2. When you're a pitcher working ahead, the entire approach shifts. Mize being able to do so this time out is central to why he was able to find more success. 

If we want to take it a step further, that first start with the Padres was Mize's first in 10 days. The Tigers had scratched him from a start prior to the trade deadline, leaving a long layoff between his last outing with them against Kansas City (a start which looked eerily similar to Monday's) and that start against Arizona. It doesn't have to be more complicated than that. This most recent iteration of Casey Mize is far closer to the version we should expect to see down the stretch than the one that showed up for his Friars debut last week.