Fernando Tatis Jr. Shouldn't Be Overlooked In NL MVP Discussion

Three months ago, having a conversation about 2026 accolades for San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. would've seemed pretty wild. Through the end of May, he ranked just 55th in fWAR among National League position players (0.6) while mired in one of the worst sustained power outages of his career (.051 ISO). Yet here in the middle of September, the conversation has taken on an entirely new form. 

Since June 1, only one player (more on that player in a moment) has accrued more fWAR than Tatis' 4.4. His .296 batting average since that point ranks 10th, his .364 on-base percentage sits 13th, and his .249 ISO checks in at eighth. Only six players have hit more than the 23 homers Tatis has slugged since that date on the calendar. His 149 wRC+ is fourth. It's a stretch that completely changed the complexion of his entire season. 

On the whole, Tatis' slash sits at .285/.355/.464. He has 24 home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 128 wRC+, to say nothing of his usual above-average marks on defense. And then you get into a percentile distribution like this: 

In just about every way, Tatis is blowing away whatever expectations he set in those first few months. Not only has he shaken off his struggles early in the year—a qualifier used to specifically note his lack of power production—he's reestablished himself as one of the top-tier players in the National League. 

That should be worth something when it comes to awards season. Of course, in any conversation about the NL's Most Valuable Player award, it's important to acknowledge certain realities. The award is Pete Crow-Armstrong's to lose at this point. His 10.1 fWAR is well above second-place Elly De La Cruz's 5.8 and he is still striving for a 40-homer, 40-steal campaign. He's been the class of the league in 2026.

Which is why it's so impressive that Tatis is even in the conversation at this point. His torrid pace since the start of June has his full-season output at a place where he's sixth in the National League in fWAR, 13th in wRC+, and in the top 15-20 in a number of other categories. His 36 swipes also trail only Crow-Armstrong among his NL counterparts. 

So, while it's incredibly unlikely we'll see Tatis grab any first-place votes for the MVP award, his name should appear across a number of different ballots. Considering where things started for him (and stayed for two months), even that feels like an outcome worth celebrating.

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