How Padres Can Sweep Cubs and Avenge Last Year's Wild Card Series Loss In Game 2

Game 1 of the Wild Card Round is in the books, and the San Diego Padres couldn’t have asked for a better start to the series.

After a dominant 8-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs last night, the Padres are firmly in the driver’s seat. They are now just one win away from advancing to the NLDS, where they would face the Milwaukee Brewers. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still work to be done.

A loss tonight would send the series to a winner-takes-all Game 3, completely changing the complexion of the matchup. So with that in mind, here are a few things San Diego must do tonight in order to win the series and avoid a rubber match.

Craig Stammen Must Have A Short Leash With Nick Pivetta

Most importantly, the Padres cannot leave Nick Pivetta out there for too long. And don’t get me wrong, that’s no slight at Pivetta. He’s pitched very well since coming off the injured list and has given the Friars exactly what they've needed from him down the stretch. But there are a couple of reasons why San Diego shouldn’t ask too much of him tonight.

For one, Pivetta has made just four starts since returning from the IL, with none of those outings lasting longer than five innings. This isn’t a situation where the Padres should expect him to suddenly turn into a seven-inning workhorse. And perhaps more importantly, the bullpen is fresh. If San Diego can get five strong innings out of Pivetta tonight, I think that’s a massive success. But I’ll take four quality innings over working into the fifth or sixth when he doesn’t need to.

The Padres have the bullpen to cover the rest of the game. There’s no reason to push their starter beyond his limits simply because it’s a playoff game.

Padres Must Wear Kevin Gausman Down Early

As for the bats, the biggest thing I want to see tonight is patience and selectivity at the plate.

Kevin Gausman will take the mound for Chicago, although there was some speculation about whether or not he would actually be able to make the start. He injured his left shoulder last week, and while it’s his non-throwing shoulder, it’s entirely possible that he could be working under some sort of pitch restriction tonight.

The Padres also knocked Matthew Boyd out after just four innings last night, forcing Chicago into a heavy bullpen game. The Cubs will have some of their high-leverage arms available for what is essentially an elimination game, but that doesn’t mean San Diego should make things easy for them.

Make them go to those relievers earlier than they’d prefer. And when those relievers enter the game, make them work, too. The Padres don’t need to come out swinging at everything just because they scored eight runs last night. If anything, I’d like to see the offense be patient and selective above all else. Run up those pitch counts.

Get Gausman into uncomfortable counts, force Chicago to dig deeper into its bullpen, and make every at-bat competitive. The Padres already have the advantage in this series. They don’t need to chase pitches or try to force the offense. If they can consistently put pressure on the Cubs’ pitching staff, the opportunities should come.

Bullpen Creativity Goes A Long Way In San Diego

And then lastly, be smart with the bullpen. As I alluded to earlier, it’ll likely be a pretty heavy bullpen game for San Diego, assuming Pivetta doesn’t work super deep. With this bullpen, that’s not at all a bad thing.

Yuki Matsui and Joe Musgrove were the only Padres relievers to pitch last night, and each threw just one inning. That means San Diego has a very fresh bullpen heading into Game 2. Because of that, they can kind of pick and choose the matchups they want to deploy their arms in.

Mason Miller is the best ninth-inning arm in baseball, but if this is a one-run game in the seventh inning with the heart of Chicago’s order coming up, maybe that’s where you go to him. Why wait? If Miller can get the biggest outs of the game in the seventh, the Padres would likely still be able to turn to Adrián Morejón and Bradgley Rodriguez to cover the eighth and ninth.

Another possibility could be if San Diego finds themselves in a tight game in the fifth or sixth inning with the top of the Cubs’ lineup coming up. Last night, Chicago led off with Pete Crow-Armstrong, with fellow lefty Michael Busch hitting third. Perhaps that’s a spot where you turn to Adrián Morejón earlier than you normally would and try to take advantage of the matchup.

There’s no reason to be overly rigid with the traditional bullpen roles tonight. The Padres have a lead in the series and thus, a chance to end this thing tonight. That gives Craig Stammen a lot of flexibility, and it’ll be up to him to use that flexibility to shut the door on a desperate Cubs team.

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