If A.J. Preller Really Wants to Go Big This Offseason, Padres Need to Dangle Fernando Tatis Jr.

The San Diego Padres reportedly are looking to do Padres things this offseason, even after the conclusion of the Winter Meetings. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is devising something that would "rival" the Juan Soto trade (the one to the Yankees, that is) and/or "pale in comparison" to what he pulled off the past two trade deadlines, if Kevin Acee's sources are to be believed.

What could such a deal -- or series of deals -- involve? Hint: It's not moving Jeremiah Estrada and/or Jake Cronenworth.

No, there's a more obvious one, even it isn't being intensely discussed at the moment: moving Fernando Tatis Jr. for a haul.

As odious as that might seem to Tatis (full no-trade through 2028) and Padres fans, it's THE move to attempt, now or in 2026, if Preller wants to keep the club's current run going -- or start a new one quickly. Based on San Diego's major-league roster and farm system, he has all but check-mated himself into doing it. A quick personnel review:

• After Tatis, the only young foundational position player is Jackson Merrill, whose nine-year, $135 million contract extension kicks in next year. Merrill produced 2.7 bWAR in 2025 despite injuries, but Tatis is in another galaxy of stars (team-leading 5.9 bWAR last year).
• The other lineup fixtures are getting old. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are entering their age-33 seasons. Cronenworth is entering his age-32 season. Ramon Laureano is entering his age-31 season. Tatis will be in his age-27 campaign, with nine years and $286 million remaining on his extension, next year.
• Nick Pivetta is the lone reliable starting pitcher. Joe Musgrove is a dice roll.  If the rotation remains a weak spot, then the bullpen needs to stay elite. An Estrada trade would need to significantly improve the roster. Is such a deal available?
• The farm is fallow. The Padres' system was dead last in Baseball America's midseason talent rankings last August. "This is the thinnest system in the game because of trades. The bottom two-thirds of this Top 30 would not crack the Top 30 of the game’s deepest systems," BA wrote.
• The owners are all but a lock to lock out the players a year from now, which might change payroll dynamics. The clubs will want to force the union into accepting a salary cap (evergreen sentence). The '26-27 offseason, therefore, figures to be as chaotic as the '21-22 offseason, which was the last lockout winter. Padres chairman John Seidler told Acee and other reporters this week that he is committed to keeping the payroll steady in '26, but will his thinking change if MLB's salary system changes? And will that then require really hard decisions, such as asking Tatis to leave?

Back to now:

Preller could try to push all-in for Tarik Skubal or Sandy Alcantara, but the Tigers seem uninterested in moving their ace and Alcantara hasn't yet regained his pre-surgery form. With the Pirates suddenly wanting to win, a Paul Skenes mega-trade has almost no chance of happening. And even if it was, Preller could add Estrada and Cronenworth to the prospects and it still wouldn't be good enough.

Maybe he can offer enough to get Brandon Lowe from the Rays and/or Kodai Senga from the Mets. But much larger moves are being teased. Like, say, a 5- or 6-for-1 return for Tatis. Preller could aim for prospects who would rival the likes of James Wood, C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Jakob Marsee, Stephen Kolek and Leo De Vries.

During his MLB Network segment Tuesday night at the meetings, Preller wouldn't say outright whether Tatis or anyone else was untouchable.

"Like anything, you want to listen," he said. "You want to be able to listen to hear what people are going to say. That's the only way to find out more information, what's out there. But we like our team."

That's typical GM talk, of course. But when it comes to the 2026 and 2027 Padres, "We want to listen" needs to become "I'm all ears," particularly when it comes to Tatis.