Manny Machado’s Recent Slump Isn't the End of His or the Padres' Stories

Over the last decade, there haven’t been many hitters as consistent as San Diego Padres’ third baseman Manny Machado. However, the 2026 season has begun to dismantle that narrative.

In what’s been an unusually down year for the 34-year-old, Machado is hitting just .217 with an OPS barely above .700. The underlying data would indicate that there’s been some bad luck scattered throughout his season, but regardless, this simply isn’t what we’re used to seeing from one of the best hitters of his generation. For a player who has established such a high floor over the course of his career, Machado’s struggles have been especially noticeable. And that's after a brief period of time in which it looked like he had finally figured things out.

Machado had an excellent month of July, slashing .292/.369/.552 for a .921 OPS. More importantly, the quality of contact behind those numbers was exactly what the Padres were used to seeing from him. He averaged 92.5 MPH in exit velocity, posted a 47.9% hard-hit rate and started getting the ball in the air more consistently. For the first time all season, he was also getting some favorable results on balls in play, posting a .319 BABIP. Everything seemed to be trending in the right direction.

Unfortunately for player and team, that success has been short-lived. Across 81 plate appearances in August, Machado is hitting just .236 with two extra-base hits. His OPS during that stretch sits at a horrendous .613, while his wRC+ has plummeted from 151 in July to just 80 this month. So, after looking like his first-half struggles were behind him, Machado has found himself right back in another frustrating stretch.

The biggest reason for that isn’t necessarily that he’s striking out more, either. In fact, Machado’s strikeout rate has actually gone down from where it was in July. Instead, it’s about how he’s hitting the baseball.

Interestingly enough, the quality of contact Machado is making is still right in line with what we saw from him during his resurgent July. His average exit velocity sits at 92.2 MPH, while his hard-hit rate has actually increased. Those are encouraging signs. The problem is that he’s not putting the ball in the air nearly as often.

Machado’s ground-ball rate is up roughly 17 percentage points from July, while his fly-ball rate has dropped by nearly the exact same amount. He’s also pulling the ball more frequently, but because so many of those balls are ending up on the ground, the results haven’t followed. That has played a significant role in his BABIP falling considerably.

Thankfully, San Diego has been able to win games while Machado has struggled. The question now is what happens if he starts hitting again. Because as frustrating as this season has been for the third baseman, this most recent slump feels like one that should eventually come to an end. There’s simply too much quality in the underlying contact for him to remain this ineffective forever. If he can start elevating the baseball again and turn some of that hard contact into the type of results we saw in July, the numbers should follow.