Michael King Has Relentlessly Proven He Should Be Padres' Game 1 Starter In Playoffs

In a certain way, it may seem that this version of Michael King is less dominant than before. His drop in strikeout rate to 7.79 K/9 this season suggests a greater risk when allowing contact. However, far from hurting King, his new approach to attacking the opposition has brought a good part of what the San Diego Padres will need if they reach the postseason: durability and efficiency.

Barring an unexpected debacle, the Dodgers will dominate the National League West, so the option for the Padres will be to look for a spot to compete for the Wild Card. Reaching October with that challenge requires great ability and collective cohesion to face short series, where a bad start can be fatal. Above all during this second half of the season, the Padres have shown that they can play at a high level. The offense has been at its best, the defense is doing its job, and they have the best closer in the game leading one of the toughest bullpens to get through.

The least consistent part of the equation has been the performances of the starting pitching corps. The Padres have used 14 starters who have made at least three starts. Through it all, King remains the main man in the rotation, with 27 starts and 2.1 fWAR. If his new profile, with less strikeout power, has raised doubts for you, you should hear this: hitters are producing against him the lowest BABIP (.252) and the lowest Pull-Air% rate (14.4%) of his career, and he is inducing his highest percentage of ground balls (45.2 GB%) since 2022. King’s main pitch remains the sinker, but he has replaced part of the presence of his fastball with greater use of the changeup (27.3%), the highest rate of his career. He has been more exposed to contact, but his performance shows that this version has also given the Padres consistency and durability.

Those adjustments have not limited King’s ability to generate swings and misses, mind you. Quite the opposite. Although his strikeout rate has dropped from 9.33 K/9 to 7.79, his SwStr% rate remains intact at 10.4%. Instead, he is now providing more durability, with an average of 5⅔ innings per start. That level of depth and efficiency takes on even more value when we think about games under pressure during the postseason. For the Padres, even with the quality of their bullpen, King’s deep starts contrast with a collective problem in the rotation: San Diego ranks toward the bottom of the league in average innings from their starters, with just 4⅓ innings per start this season.

Since July 3, King has recorded at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts, with a 2.72 ERA and 4.24 FIP in that span. The FIP remains relatively high, but the results have been there. He continues to be the number one starter in the rotation without question, and his competitiveness shows it. If we choose all the possible contenders for the Padres looking toward the postseason, look where King appears among the pitchers who have faced at least 120 opponents.

For the ranking, I chose all the starts by starters against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago Cubs, since they represent the teams the Padres are most likely to run into in October.

There are big names there. But against the big rivals the Padres could face in October, King has not allowed a single home run this season after challenging 148 opponents. His overall xFIP of 4.32 drops to 3.72 when he faces the best contenders in the National League. He has also allowed a high ground-ball rate and maintains an average of six innings per start in that group.

The exposure to more contact remains a risk that King has taken with his adjustments this season, but he has been reliable in the big challenges. And that is the comparison that weighs the most here: how the frontline starters in the rotation have pitched against their possible contenders. No other Padres starting pitcher has come close to that level of dominance, which shows that King remains the number one starter in the rotation.

There is still not enough of a sample to evaluate Robbie Ray and Casey Mize, but as the end of the season approaches, we will have a better idea of how they have responded under pressure.

Another detail that marks King’s consistency and has caught my attention is his effectiveness when he pitches with four days of rest. In those games, he has a 5-1 record and a 1.91 ERA. King leads all MLB starters in that situation with the lowest OPS+ (52) allowed, leaving behind Dylan Cease (54) of the Blue Jays, an American League Cy Young contender. In six of those 10 starts this year, he has left his opponents at one run or none; he has two starts allowing one hit and on only one occasion did they score three runs against him. On the other hand, when he rests one or two more days, he has a losing record of 3-7 and his ERA shoots up to 4.44 in 13 starts.

Obviously, the Padres have had to distribute his workload, but the fact that King has been responding better with normal rest is another of the big pieces of good news looking toward the playoffs.