Yirsandy Rodríguez

The biggest thing that made Xander Bogaerts a sought-after shortstop when he became a free agent was his ability to impact the game as an all-around elite player. When he arrived in San Diego, he met those standards in 2023, but since then, his offense has been declining until it hit rock bottom this season. The regressions in his game have been limited to the offense, as he remains an above-average fielder and a pretty good baserunner. However, Bogaerts fell to the 24th percentile in batting value, the worst of his career with the Padres, and finished with a batting average of just .231 and a .344 slugging percentage. It is impossible not to think about his decline when seeing how far he fell short of his usual numbers: he hit .292 with a .458 slugging percentage in 10 seasons with Boston, compared with .272 and .407 between 2023 and 2025, since he arrived in San Diego. As you can see here, the problem is not his bat speed or Bogaerts’ ability to make contact and put the ball in play. In fact, he finished 2026 with his highest walk rate (12.7%), so his plate discipline helped prevent his entire offense from ending up in an even worse abyss. That said, this is my theory about what caused Bogaerts’ chaos at the plate: his inability to hit pitches that were not fastballs. Pitch Category Pitch % PA HR K% BA xBA OBP xOBP SLG xSLG xwOBA BABIP Whiff% EV (MPH) Hard Hit% Barrel/BBE% Bat Speed Fastballs 54.8% 372 9 11.8% .261 .276 .371 .386 .392 .429 .363 .278 14.3% 91.2 45.8% 6.6% 70.6 Non-Fastballs 33.0% 169 3 25.4% .204 .220 .290 .306 .293 .321 .284 .260 32.3% 86.7 35.5% 3.7% 68.8 Although that BABIP mark remained at a similar level, the differences in contact quality were notable, with significant drops in xBA, xSLG, Barrel/BBE%, and whiff%. Of those 169 plate appearances that ended with a pitch type that wasn't a heater, he recorded a high strikeout rate of 25.4% and another 30.7% ended in ground balls or pop-ups that averaged just a .195 xwOBA. Unlike what happened against fastballs, Bogaerts’ swing failed to do damage in the inner zones, where he hit just .221 xBA against middle and middle-high pitches. His highest average in the lower and outside edges, where pitches were located most often in decisive counts, was .224 in the lower zone over the plate. Here is Bogaerts’ spray-chart on the non-fastballs he put in play. The hot zones were scarce, and most were located toward the left side of the infield. That decline in his ability to produce hard-hit balls was the most concerning drop that marked Bogaerts’ 2026 season and the biggest challenge he has ahead of him during the remaining seven years of his contract with the Padres. View full article

It was another disappointing finish for the San Diego Padres, but we also have to recognize that they were eliminated by the best team in baseball throughout the entire season: the Milwaukee Brewers. Everything came down to a four-game series dominated by pitching from start to finish. No winning team scored more than four runs and, with the exception of Game 4, every game ended by a one-run margin. So, the opportunity to turn the series around was there the entire time. The Padres recorded 145 plate appearances and, in 41.3% of them, their hitters came to the plate with the score tied or trailing by just one run. Unfortunately, the Friars were only able to change the score in three of the 19 occasions when it had runners in scoring position. In the end, the key hit didn’t come in most of those opportunities and, in two of them, the baseball gods were not on their side. Before the postseason, I set out to investigate what kind of shape most of San Diego’s starting hitters were in when they arrived at the playoffs. In several cases, they entered the postseason in the best form of their season; in others, they simply never found their best version. Here, I take a look at some of the moments that defined each hitter before and during the postseason. Austin Hays His out-of-zone contact rate fell from 55% in September to 33.3% in the postseason, which led to an increase in his strikeout rate from 22.6% to 30%. Hays had a good pinch-hit at-bat for Jake Cronenworth in the top of the eighth inning of Game 1, when he hit a fly ball against left-hander DL Hall with runners on first and second and one out. Samad Taylor took advantage and advanced to third, but Fernando Tatis Jr. then struck out against Trevor Megill. Dustin Harris Despite recording just a .188 xwOBA in the NLDS, Harris made an interesting adjustment by lowering his swing rate on pitches outside the zone from 32.5% to 15.8%. At the same time, however, his contact rate fell from 65.3% to 50%. On the other hand, his decline in production also coincided with a drop in his BABIP, which went from a surprising .328 in the final month of the regular season to just .200 in the NLDS. Ethan Salas His talent is undeniable, but his .737 OPS in September fell to .325 over his 10 postseason plate appearances. He also finished with a 37.5% strikeout rate, the highest of anyone on the roster. Fernando Tatis Jr. Before reaching the postseason, Tatis was going through one of the best stretches of his entire campaign, so it was inevitable that expectations would be high. He hit .337/.413/.652, with a 1.066 OPS and 193 wRC+ in September, but then fell to .167/.231/.417 and 78 wRC+ in the postseason. In 17 of his 18 plate appearances against the Brewers, Tatis came to the plate with the score close. He finished 1-for-7 with two strikeouts in tied-game situations, including both of his leadoff at-bats. His only two productive plate appearances were the RBI groundout against Dustin May that gave the Padres a 1-0 lead in the third inning of Game 3, and the home run against Robert Gasser that tied Game 4 in the third inning. Gavin Sheets He won’t only be remembered for striking out for the final out of the NLDS against Trevor Megill’s knuckle curveball, but also because he had fallen into a terrible slump in September for the second consecutive year. In 2025, he finished with a 61 wRC+; this year, his OPS fell to just .333 and his wRC+ to -10. Jackson Merrill He's arrived to the playoffs in peak form in recent years, with 156 and 152 wRC+ marks in September 2025 and 2026, respectively. But this time, he couldn’t shine and was limited to a .176/.176/.176 line against the Brewers. Game 1 was his biggest test, when he had three key opportunities against Aaron Ashby, DL Hall and Trevor Megill in the fifth, seventh and ninth innings, respectively. All three came with two outs. Against Ashby, he failed with a fly ball to center field, with runners on second and third and the game tied 2-2. He then faced Hall with the bases loaded and failed again with a fly ball to left field against a cutter high and away. Later, in the ninth, he hit a line-drive out to right field against a 99 mph fastball from Megill for the final out of the game. He finished 1-for-7 against Milwaukee’s group of left-handed relievers: Ashby, Hall, and JoJo Romero. Jake Cronenworth After struggling for much of the first half of the season and spending time on the injured list, Cronenworth recorded a 119 wRC+ in July. He then fell to 75 in August, but adjusted his swing again in September, when he posted a .418 slugging percentage, his highest in any month of the entire season. However, he became anxious at the plate again, and his swing rate on pitches outside the zone rose from 26.4% to 39.3%. The only two hits he recorded in the NLDS came against left-handed pitchers: a single against DL Hall and the solo home run on the first pitch of the fifth inning in Game 3 against JoJo Romero, which turned out to be one of the key hits that allowed the Padres to avoid the sweep. That home run was the hit that added the most win probability for the Padres (0.14) from a batter in the entire NLDS. Manny Machado It’s inevitable to mention one of the hits that could have changed the course of the postseason for the Padres. When Machado hit that deep fly ball to center field in Game 4 and Garrett Mitchell caught it, it felt as if the game had ended right there. No matter how much Padres fans tried not to lose hope, the team couldn’t recover, and that colossal catch by Mitchell was the final attempt at a comeback. If there was one key to the Brewers’ pitching, it was preventing Machado from finding runners on base frequently. In nine of his 17 plate appearances, he found the bases empty, and he finished 1-for-6, with three walks and a double in those at-bats. He went 1-for-2 with runners in scoring position (RISP), and the only run he drove in came on a single against Dustin May in the third inning of Game 3. Luis Campusano Do you remember his 156 wRC+ in July? That version of Campusano didn’t make it past August, when he recorded a 112 wRC+. In September and October 2026, he hit .215/.292/.369, with an 88 wRC+ in 72 plate appearances. Although he improved his OBP to .357 over his 14 postseason plate appearances, his contact rate against pitches in the zone fell considerably, from 83.9% to 70.6%. That regression mattered, since Campusano had runners on base in five of his 10 at-bats against the Brewers in the NLDS. His big at-bat will be remembered: in the second inning of Game 1, he hit a single against a cutter from Jacob Misiorowski that came right down the middle of the zone, putting the Padres ahead 1-0. However, he didn’t drive in another run in his remaining nine plate appearances. In each of them, he had the chance to change the score, since he always came to the plate with the game tied or with a one-run difference, whether the Padres were ahead or behind. Samad Taylor Contact ability, one of the elements that drove Taylor’s at-bats for much of the year, suffered its biggest regression in the postseason: his out-of-zone swing rate increased from 30.6% to 46.7%. He didn’t draw any walks, and his strikeout rate jumped from 21.1% to 40%. Yes, I haven’t forgotten his reaction when he struck out looking at Ashby’s curveball for the third out of the seventh inning in Game 4. Ty France All of his months were solid, featuring at least a 123 wRC+, and he finished September with an impressive 140 mark. His bat made a difference for the Padres, and it’s very likely that he will receive a contract offer, since he will be a free agent in a matter of weeks. In any case, people will talk for a long time about the fly ball he hit off the roof of American Family Field in Game 1. Statcast projected it as a potential home run in one of the 30 ballparks, with a chance to become a home run only at Daikin Park. From Game 2 onward, France finished 2-for-10 and drove in just one run. Xander Bogaerts You may find it surprising, but Bogaerts hit only two balls that clearly got past the infield against the Brewers. Both were line drives: a single against Antonio Senzatela, with the bases empty and two outs in the sixth inning of Game 3, and a line-drive out to right field against Robert Gasser. Bogaerts had finished the Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs 4-for-8, with a double, a home run and two RBIs, but the Brewers limited him to a puzzling .154/.267/.154 slash line, with just a 32 wRC+ in 15 plate appearances. View full article

The problem was in front of our eyes the entire time, and time keeps proving that we were not wrong. There has not been a more difficult left-handed-hitting offense to beat in these playoffs than the Milwaukee Brewers. With a sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS now behind them, it's clear how good their lineup really is. Prior to heading to L.A. for those final two games of the championship series, Milwaukee’s left-handed hitters lead the postseason with a 115 wRC+, .270 batting average, .398 on-base percentage, and the pure identity of their “small-ball” game, a .371 BABIP and 2.25 GB/FB. So, when the San Diego Padres finished quickly annihilating the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card Series, it was inevitable to start exploring what the matchups and the keys might be for them to stop the Brewers. Obviously, we know that it was not about some command mistakes that could be destroyed by big swings. That is not what the Brewers usually do. The Padres had overcome the Cubs’ left-handed hitters by limiting them to an 0-for-14 line with a 41.2 K% in 17 plate appearances. Perhaps Chicago could have recovered somewhat if the series had been best-of-five or best-of-seven, but they never managed to make the adjustments. Instead, the pitching could not stop Milwaukee’s left-handed hitters. Robbie Ray was never able to meet the level the Padres needed from him after acquiring him at the trade deadline, and along with Walker Buehler, Jason Adam, and Adrian Morejon, they could not record a single strikeout against the 26 batters they faced combined. Although the samples were small, with the exception of Joe Musgrove, Michael King, and Nick Pivetta, the rest of the pitchers struggled to prevent left-handed hitters from reaching base. How did the Brewers manage to be so consistent? Let’s explore some interesting details in this pair of charts. On the left is the expected batting averages of the Brewers’ left-handed hitters against San Diego’s pitchers in the past postseason, and on the right, the summary of all hitters. It is easy to notice one particular detail: the ability to get good results against pitches on the edges of the strike zone, right where they should be more difficult to reach. This result reveals how difficult it was to avoid contact and strike out most of these hitters, who tend to be aggressive throughout the zone. The best averages are precisely against low pitches over the plate, and in the high-and-outside zone for left-handed hitters, locations where the Padres were more dominant throughout the regular season. As you can see here, San Diego managed to limit left-handed hitters in the high-and-outside zone, and they had no problems when they pitched outside the strike zone. But the plan did not work against Milwaukee and, in the end, it was the left-handed hitters who made the difference with their quality at-bats. Yes, Jackson Chourio (six RBIs) and William Contreras (two RBIs) combined to capitalize on several key at-bats with runners on base that shaped the direction of the series, but when you look at the final results, it was the left-handed hitters who did the most damage; they scored eight of Milwaukee’s 13 runs, with five stolen bases in the same number of attempts. View full article

The San Diego Padres are still alive after a dramatic 4-3 victory in Game 3 against the Milwaukee Brewers in the return to Petco Park. There will be a Game 4, and that leaves a lot of hope for the team and the fans, despite the fact that they are facing the most successful team of the regular season. However, San Diego could face an even more complicated challenge in Game 4: trying to find all the sufficient innings from the bullpen if they cannot count on left-hander Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller. Miller was not available in Game 3 after being placed on the paternity list, and Morejon is dealing with shoulder fatigue. It's unclear as of now if either (or both) pitcher will be able to go tonight. After throwing five innings with three hits allowed and one run on 72 pitches last Sunday in Game 2, Michael King handled the Padres’ final two innings with a spectacular finish, inducing Christian Yelich to hit into a double play to close out the game and preserve the one-run lead. King needed to throw 40 pitches, which adds up to a total of 112 over the last two playoff games. It has been a performance worthy of applause, as the ace of the staff has carried a huge part of the pitching load so far. Meanwhile, the other starters, Robbie Ray in Game 1 and Nick Pivetta in Game 2, combined for 114 pitches. Neither of them was dominant enough to control the Brewers’ offense and neither managed to earn the confidence to complete five innings. This is what the starters’ performances looked like: King: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO, 0 HR, 27 BF, 63 Game Score, SV Ray and Pivetta combined: 7 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO, 2 HR, 32 BF, 45 Game Score King’s contribution added to the heavy workload the Padres’ bullpen has carried in this NLDS, handling 53.2% of the innings (13 2/3 of 25 2/3), but the plan for Game 4 could become the most complicated game if right-hander Walker Buehler cannot go deep enough. That said, assuming the bullpen will not have the availability of Miller or Morejon, Craig Stammen will need to trust less-heralded arms in high-leverage spots. Historically, Buehler has been a pitcher who tends to rise to the occasion when October arrives and, in fact, the only time he faced the Brewers this season was last August 11, and he had a solid start with six innings of one-run ball, with five strikeouts, two walks and only three hits allowed in the Padres’ 11-2 victory at Petco Park. However, he has struggled in his career against most of the Brewers’ left-handed hitters. Although the samples are small, it is clear how much of a difference some good at-bats from Milwaukee’s left-handed hitters throughout the lineup could make. Sal Frelick, David Hamilton, Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell have combined to go 5-for-13, with only three strikeouts—two by Yelich and one by Mitchell—in 15 plate appearances, while Brice Turang and Jake Bauers have the only extra-base hits, a triple and a home run, respectively. The other key hitter has been Jackson Chourio (1-for-3), who has reached base in two of his four at-bats against Buehler with a pair of RBIs. Therefore, it is clear that left-handed pitchers could play a fundamental role in the bullpen. Left-hander Wandy Peralta was added to the roster for this NLDS in place of Miller and could help alongside Yuki Matsui to face important situations against left-handed hitters. Peralta has an interesting history against the Brewers, as left-handed hitters have hit .276 (8-for-29) against him, with no extra-base hits, only three RBIs, six strikeouts and a pair of walks in 31 matchups. But that offensive line changes considerably when we take Yelich out of the equation, as he has carried a good part of that production with a 5-for-13 line, two RBIs, one walk and a .813 OPS in 14 plate appearances against Peralta. The rest of the hitters combine to go 3-for-16 (.188) with one RBI, four strikeouts and one walk. Matsui has relieved in every game so far, and has allowed only one unearned run and one hit against the 15 batters he has faced in 3 1/3 innings. His biggest complications have come with the two walks he has issued and one batter hit, but in his last two outings none of the four runners he has inherited were able to score. Matsui’s relief appearance in Game 3, when he came in to rescue Jason Adam, marked one of the turning points that kept the Padres alive. He came in and got Turang out with a ground ball to short to end the fifth inning. On the first pitch of the bottom of the fifth, Jake Cronenworth hit a solo home run to break the tie—his first postseason home run since the 2022 NLDS—and the Brewers could not come back on the scoreboard again. Between the fifth and ninth, the bullpen left nine of the 11 runners left on base in the game, including the bases loaded in the fifth inning, and two other scoreless innings with a pair of runners on base against Bradgley Rodriguez—who pitched in his third consecutive game in this NLDS—in the sixth and seventh, respectively. Besides Peralta and Matsui, Ray was warming up in the bullpen to be ready if needed in Game 3, so he could well be another left-handed arm to keep in mind for Game 4. So, if Morejon and Miller are not available this Wednesday for Game 4, it will simply be an all-hands-on-deck type of game for the bullpen. It will be another battle of life or death, so the Padres have to do everything they can to survive. View full article

The San Diego Padres are on the brink of elimination with a 0-2 deficit in the NLDS against a Milwaukee Brewers team that grew stronger with two exciting comebacks at home. But that is not the only worrying news, as Nick Pivetta was announced to take the mound as the starter for the do-or-die contest. Why is that worrying? Well, his terrible past against the Brewers puts him at the center of attention. In five starts, he has a 1-3 record and 8.76 ERA with 24 strikeouts and, worst of all, 14 walks in just 24 2/3 innings. Pivetta was on the injured list from mid-April and returned in September to the rotation. In five outings, he finished with a 2-0 record and 1.64 ERA and allowed only two home runs. His arsenal looked good and he averaged 94 mph after throwing 302 four-seam fastballs, his best peak since he recorded 94.6 mph in 2023. Although he has thrown only 34 2/3 frames this season, Pivetta has been dominant, especially when he mixes the cutter, the sweeper and his curveball. All are pitches that have improved in terms of their perfect contact allowed rates compared to their samples from last year, and they have helped him be more efficient against left-handed hitters. Another key aspect of Pivetta is how consistent he has been when he faces the batting order for the first and second time, limiting his opponents to a .284 and .298 slugging percentage, respectively. His command of the strike zone in that aspect will be vital, since his opponents’ on-base percentage improves when he faces the order for the second time. Pivetta has not allowed home runs this year in that situation, but hitters have improved their contact rate by 5.0%. The Brewers are characterized by having a lineup that adapts to any situation, and it is clear that they need to take advantage of every slip from Pivetta before he can advance and the relievers take over the game. Unfortunately for the Padres, Brewers hitters Pivetta could face in Game 3 have combined for a .302/.370/.508 offensive line, with seven extra-base hits, three of them home runs, and an .878 OPS. Christian Yelich is an old acquaintance of Pivetta. He hit two home runs against him punishing his fastball when he played with the Marlins in the past, but since he has been in Milwaukee he has gone 3-for-7 against him with a double and three RBIs. In most of those counts there was a common denominator, Yelich’s patience, without chasing pitches on the edges of the corners and the high zone. Despite a down season, he could be the biggest threat in the lineup tonight. Let’s take a look at the rest of the hitters, since there are some additional interesting points here: The production from Gary Sanchez and Sal Frelick has mainly come against Pivetta’s fastball, and there have been quality at-bats from Joey Ortiz and Jake Bauers. But in what will be several of the matchups under the greatest pressure, Pivetta has shown dominance against Brice Turang, William Contreras and Jackson Chourio in the past, who combine for a .182/.280/.227 line against the right-hander. However, behind those slash lines, Chourio’s raw talent did not completely disappear, as he averaged a 67% hard-hit rate in the three at-bats in which he put the ball in play. Turang, who in general is 1-for-6 with three strikeouts, also hit the curveball better, leaving Contreras’ case as the most critical, with a 33.3% whiff rate. Pivetta located most of those pitches outside the zone against Contreras, and his only big mistakes came when he left pitches right down the middle. Turang and Bauers went 0-for-8 in Game 2, so it is possible that manager Pat Murphy experiments with some change in the lineup. In any case, Pivetta’s matchups against Contreras and Yelich could be key for both sides. View full article

It has not been for a lack of opportunities. The San Diego Padres have lost two games by one run, despite leading on the scoreboard in 10 of their 18 innings. Okay, I admit that even with that poor production, neither of their two main relievers, Adrian Morejon in Game 1 and Mason Miller in Game 2, was able to dominate to hold the tie and the lead. But even before getting there, the Padres had enough opportunities to change the scoreboard and allow the bullpen to work much more comfortably against a lineup as productive as the Brewers’. In the two games, San Diego has let 13 opportunities to score runs with runners in scoring position slip away after taking the lead. All you want in October is for most of the important at-bats that could give the game a definitive turn to come when your best hitters step to the plate. The Padres have not lacked them, although ten of them came in Game 2. Fernando Tatis Jr. has had the opportunity in three of them, including the only at-bat in an RISP situation when the Padres had a 2-0 lead against Jacob Misiorowski. Tatis Jr. hit a ground ball to Miz himself, advancing the runners to second and third. Then Dustin Harris walked after a great seven-pitch at-bat to load the bases, but Manny Machado was dominated on the first pitch with a ground ball to the shortstop. Series Gm# Batter Pitcher Score Event Inn RoB Out Pit(cnt) WPA NLDS 1 Dustin Harris Jacob Misiorowski ahead 0-2 BB t2 -23 2 7 (3-2) 0.01 NLDS 1 Fernando Tatis Jr. Jacob Misiorowski ahead 0-2 Out t2 12- 1 4 (1-2) -0.02 NLDS 1 Manny Machado Jacob Misiorowski ahead 0-2 Out t2 123 2 1 (0-0) -0.1 The Padres could not take enough advantage of Misiorowski's slightly-off day, and then the bullpen prevented them from having more real opportunities to increase their win probability for the rest of the game. That was the prelude to Game 2, where the Brewers no longer had Miz, and had to face the bullpen for the second time. Series Gm# Batter Pitcher Score Event Inn RoB Out Pit(cnt) WPA NLDS 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. Logan Henderson ahead 0-1 Out t2 12- 2 1 (0-0) -0.04 NLDS 2 Jake Cronenworth Logan Henderson ahead 0-1 Out t2 12- 1 1 (0-0) -0.04 NLDS 2 Luis Campusano Logan Henderson ahead 0-1 BB t2 1-- 1 4 (3-0) 0.03 NLDS 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. Logan Henderson ahead 0-1 FC t5 1-- 1 2 (0-1) 0.07 NLDS 2 Manny Machado Logan Henderson ahead 0-2 Out t5 -2- 2 4 (1-2) -0.03 NLDS 2 Austin Hays JoJo Romero ahead 1-2 SO t6 1-- 1 5 (2-2) -0.03 NLDS 2 Luis Campusano Abner Uribe ahead 1-2 Out t6 12- 2 5 (2-2) -0.05 NLDS 2 Dustin Harris Abner Uribe ahead 1-2 Out t7 1-- 1 5 (2-2) -0.03 NLDS 2 Freddy Fermin Aaron Ashby ahead 2-3 Out t8 12- 1 3 (0-2) -0.09 NLDS 2 Xander Bogaerts Aaron Ashby ahead 2-3 SO t8 12- 0 7 (3-2) -0.05 However, the biggest loss of opportunities came in Game 2, when the Padres let five opportunities that could have become glorious postseason at-bats slip away against Logan Henderson, three of them in the second inning and two in the fifth. Tatis Jr. and Machado failed again, and in the eighth, Freddy Fermin and Xander Bogaerts left runners on first and second with fewer than two outs. Beyond the clutch situations, credit has to be given to the Brewers’ pitching, as San Diego’s power has completely disappeared, and they had the bad luck that Ty France’s fly ball that could have changed the series hit the roof cables at American Family Field. The Padres are slashing .206/.316/.221, with no home runs, and have struck out 16 times in 79 plate appearances. With runners in scoring position, they have been worse, falling to .167/.250/.167, but with one important sign, which is that they have struck out only three times in 20 at-bats. The Brewers will send right-hander Dustin May to the mound as their starter in Game 3, and he will face San Diego for the fourth time this season. Two came with the St. Louis Cardinals and one after arriving in Milwaukee at the trade deadline, to post a 1-1 record, a 1.23 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 22 innings. All three were quality starts, and on June 15 he threw a shutout with nine strikeouts and only one hit allowed, a single by Manny Machado that broke up his no-hitter with one out in the top of the seventh. Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Manny Machado R 42 40 10 2 0 2 5 2 8 .250 .286 .450 .736 0 0 0 0 4 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 31 28 7 1 0 1 4 3 6 .250 .323 .393 .715 0 0 0 0 0 3 Jake Cronenworth L 25 21 5 0 0 1 1 3 4 .238 .360 .381 .741 0 0 0 1 1 4 Xander Bogaerts R 17 16 3 1 0 1 1 1 3 .188 .235 .438 .673 0 0 0 0 0 5 Ty France R 13 12 4 0 0 1 1 0 3 .333 .385 .583 .968 0 0 0 1 1 6 Jackson Merrill L 12 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 .000 .083 .000 .083 0 1 0 0 1 7 Gavin Sheets L 12 11 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .091 .167 .091 .258 0 0 0 0 1 8 Freddy Fermin R 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0 9 Sung-Mun Song L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0 10 Austin Hays R 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 .250 .250 .500 .750 0 0 0 0 1 As you can see here, there are five hitters who have combined to hit six home runs against May, with Machado accounting for two, despite the offensive line being low at .217/.281/.368, and they have not been able to take enough advantage of the impact of the power. There is also a group of four hitters who have not been easy outs for May, Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets, Jackson Merrill and Sung-Mun Song, who combine for 4-for-41 with a .098/.174/.195 line. But there is a key point that San Diego’s hitters have to exploit to attack May, and that is that his fastball did not finish well in September. Hitters destroyed the three pitches he throws the most, averaging above .500 xSLG against the sinker (.716), cutter (.504), and four-seam fastball (.514). In that group, Manny Machado and Ty France stand out among those who have connected best against his sinker and four-seam fastball. May tends to be a pretty uncomfortable pitcher because he has a tendency to pitch inside and then combine his curveball, sweeper, and changeup to generate swings and misses and make hitters chase pitches on the corners and outside the strike zone. He improved by incorporating a high-impact curveball with 55.3 inches of total drop, combined with the vertical profile of his sweeper at -3.9 inches, so we will see if he can repeat his dominance or if the Padres can wake up and get better at-bats to stay alive in these playoffs. View full article

When the San Diego Padres acquired veteran left-hander Robbie Ray at the trade deadline, they did it thinking about October, so this is the moment when they need his contribution the most: Game 1 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers, the most consistent team in baseball this season. Ray arrives with a negative experience under the October lights, pitching to a 0-3 record with a 7.43 ERA in six postseason appearances, only two of them as a starter. His 13 innings pitched have come over a span between 2017 and 2022, with the terrible memory of allowing a walk-off home run by Yordan Alvarez in the ninth inning on Oct. 11, 2022, when the Seattle Mariners needed one out to win 7-5. His last outing was also in relief in the 18th inning, three days later in Game 3, when Seattle lost 1-0 and ended up being swept in the ALDS. Now Ray has a new opportunity for redemption after that nightmare in October, but he will have to overcome what could be considered his worst moment of this campaign. His performance in the second half of the season in San Diego fell somewhat short of expectations, although, overall, Ray remained the pitcher who had finished the first half with the San Francisco Giants. His xFIP rose from 4.87 to 4.98 since the All-Star break, and hitters considerably increased their BABIP from .238 to .298. Even so, I would say that Ray’s biggest problem continues to be his inconsistency in preventing runs, as his left-handed profile continues to present control problems and more vulnerable points against right-handed hitters. Season Handedness O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% FastSw% K-BB% Barrel% HR OPS 2026 vs L 27.7% 66.9% 44.7% 53.8% 83.6% 23.3% 11.9% 3.8% 2 .680 2026 vs R 28.5% 71.1% 46.7% 61.5% 88.5% 30.8% 6.5% 9.6% 20 .719 Right-handed hitters have recorded similar swing rates to left-handed hitters, against pitches inside and outside the strike zone, but the impact of the contact is different, producing 20 of the 24 home runs Ray has allowed all year. In a certain way, it seems like a strange combination, since left-handed hitters have a high strikeout-to-walk rate, but improve those dividends with more BABIP (.333 vs. .231 against right-handed hitters). In any case, these trends bring us to two points that could be key in Game 1: how much Ray can dominate the left-handed hitters the Brewers put in the lineup, and whether he can avoid his regular-season collapse when right-handed hitters hit him hard. There is a number in the table that sounds very revealing: the 7.5% difference between the FastSw% of right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters, which clearly reveals the aggressiveness and determination with which they look for his pitches when they choose to swing. So, now an important part of the matchup enters the conversation, and the historical matchup of Ray against the hitters on this Brewers offense. Ray pitched only once in 2026 against Milwaukee; it was this past Aug. 12, and he recorded a short start of 84 pitches in only four innings. He allowed two earned runs and a home run for the third consecutive start against the Brewers, although the previous two were last year, pitching with the Giants. However, the recent numbers from those starts do not tell the whole story of Ray’s success against Milwaukee, although he has allowed seven runs, 13 hits and three home runs over 14 innings in his last three starts. Milwaukee hitters have produced a line of just .194/.306/.323, with two home runs — both by Gary Sanchez — five RBIs, 15 strikeouts and 10 walks in 72 plate appearances. Even allowing a home run in each of his last three starts, the Brewers have combined for less than a .200 BA, a .305 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage below .325. That sounds good, and in 72 plate appearances there are some interesting points there. Player PA Pit/PA HR K% BB% xOBP xSLG xwOBA Whiff% Hard Hit% Ortiz, Joey 3 6.0 0 33.3% 33.3% .362 .044 .260 25.0% 100.0% Bauers, Jake 2 6.0 0 0.0% 50.0% .525 .076 .376 20.0% 0.0% Contreras, William 10 5.3 0 20.0% 40.0% .468 .184 .354 27.3% 25.0% Sánchez, Gary 9 4.6 2 22.2% 11.1% .337 .910 .496 36.4% 50.0% Yelich, Christian 6 4.2 0 0.0% 16.7% .449 .696 .477 33.3% 60.0% Turang, Brice 7 3.9 0 28.6% 0.0% .282 .447 .311 31.3% 60.0% Chourio, Jackson 5 3.8 0 0.0% 0.0% .364 .548 .391 12.5% 60.0% Lockridge, Brandon 6 3.7 0 50.0% 0.0% .119 .231 .147 54.5% 66.7% Frelick, Sal 5 3.4 0 0.0% 20.0% .546 .480 .458 14.3% 0.0% Hamilton, David 2 2.5 0 0.0% 0.0% .232 .313 .233 0.0% 0.0% Ray has been a strikeout pitcher against Brewers hitters, with a swing-and-miss rate above 25% against six of the 10 hitters on the list. But, if you look, at the same time, he allows 50% or more Hard Hit% against six of them. Yelich and Turang appear among the left-handed hitters who have hit him the best, while Sanchez, Chourio and Lockridge lead the impact from the right-handed hitters. The strikeouts have been there once Ray has been able to get ahead in the count, but he has also run the risk of walking hitters or ending up giving up a pitch in a count with an advantage for the hitter. I don’t know what feeling you get when analyzing all these trends, but they describe perfectly to me what Ray has been at least since he arrived in San Diego: at times, some flashes of the intelligent left-hander who could surprise hitters with pitches on the corners and in the upper third of the strike zone, but often, inconsistent in throwing quality strikes, maintaining his command and resolving game situations without wearing himself out so much. Look at one more detail, and it is that half of the hitters have seen him average at least 4.2 pitches per plate appearance, and the lowest average on the entire list is David Hamilton, with 2.5. With the great bullpen San Diego possesses, it's unlikely Ray will be on the mound for very long, especially if he cannot dominate left-handed hitters and gets into trouble early. View full article

The San Diego Padres will have to face Jacob Misiorowski and the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of the NLDS, in what will be the second matchup of the year against the fastest and most dominant starter in baseball. Miz received special attention against the Padres on May 13 at home, with 10 strikeouts in seven innings without walking a batter and with only four singles allowed. He threw 93 pitches, and 40 of them were fastballs of at least 100 mph that averaged 101.3. San Diego finished with a swing-and-miss rate of 52.4%, and they put only one ball in play with an exit velocity above 100 mph, a 105.5 mph line-drive single that Gavin Sheets hit in the top of the second inning. Only 12 of those batted balls reached an exit velocity above 85 mph, and the average distance traveled was 155 feet. Something I love about Miz is that, when he starts moving forward, he does not tire easily. He goes through the path being as aggressive as he is devastating, without the slips of the typical strikeout pitcher who sometimes escapes too much from the strike zone, losing command, or needs many pitches to finish off opponents. In 18 of his 30 starts, he threw 90 or more pitches and, even so, in 14 he managed to secure at least six innings, with a minimum of seven strikeouts in 12 of them. Although Misiorowski will probably make some adjustments to offer more room to his curveball against lefties and the slider against righties, especially in two-strike counts, the Padres know that most of the time they will see many fastballs over 100 mph, most of them in the upper third of the strike zone. We do not need to remember how difficult it was for the league to hit Misiorowski’s pitches, but there is an interesting point here that perhaps could make the difference in this second matchup of the year. Let’s analyze for a moment this collection of graphs about Miz’s performance when he threw his fireball fastball against San Diego last May. The highest percentage of pitches was again present in the upper third of the strike zone, looking for that difficult spot where it is much harder for hitters to get to the barrel, although he also located a good portion of his fastball on the outer corner to right-handed hitters. The highest swing-and-miss percentages are also in those areas, as are the higher bat speeds. The results of the three balls put in play that you see were singles, two weak batted balls and Sheets’ line drive. This will be the biggest challenge for the Padres throughout the entire postseason, and there is a possibility that they will have to face Misiorowski twice. But there is a little bit of comfort here, and it is reasonable, since there is no fastball as dominant throughout the league as Miz’s, but there you can see how there are several Padres hitters who have been successful against that type of pitch. There are five hitters with an xSLG above .450, led by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts, who were surpassed only by James Wood (.775) of the Nationals. Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Xander Bogaerts R 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 2 Austin Hays R 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .667 .667 .667 1.333 0 0 0 0 0 3 Manny Machado R 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 4 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 5 Gavin Sheets L 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0 6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .667 .667 .667 1.333 0 0 0 0 0 7 Ty France R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 As you can see here, there are four hitters with at least one hit among the seven active players on this postseason roster who have faced Misiorowski, including Hays and Tatis Jr. going 2-for-3. Manny Machado is the only one who has struck out a couple of times, and the entire lineup combines for a .300/.300/.300 line, with no extra-base hits, five strikeouts and no walks. The past sample is small, and the challenge in this Game 1 is immense, so we will see if the Padres can have a chance against Misiorowski and change the dominant story from the regular season. View full article