Padres NLDS Autopsy: Brewers' Left-Handed Hitters Proved To Be Friars' Kryptonite

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

The problem was in front of our eyes the entire time, and time keeps proving that we were not wrong. There has not been a more difficult left-handed-hitting offense to beat in these playoffs than the Milwaukee Brewers.

With a sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS now behind them, it's clear how good their lineup really is. Prior to heading to L.A. for those final two games of the championship series, Milwaukee’s left-handed hitters lead the postseason with a 115 wRC+, .270 batting average, .398 on-base percentage, and the pure identity of their “small-ball” game, a .371 BABIP and 2.25 GB/FB.

So, when the San Diego Padres finished quickly annihilating the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card Series, it was inevitable to start exploring what the matchups and the keys might be for them to stop the Brewers.

Obviously, we know that it was not about some command mistakes that could be destroyed by big swings. That is not what the Brewers usually do. The Padres had overcome the Cubs’ left-handed hitters by limiting them to an 0-for-14 line with a 41.2 K% in 17 plate appearances. Perhaps Chicago could have recovered somewhat if the series had been best-of-five or best-of-seven, but they never managed to make the adjustments.

Instead, the pitching could not stop Milwaukee’s left-handed hitters. Robbie Ray was never able to meet the level the Padres needed from him after acquiring him at the trade deadline, and along with Walker Buehler, Jason Adam, and Adrian Morejon, they could not record a single strikeout against the 26 batters they faced combined. Although the samples were small, with the exception of Joe Musgrove, Michael King, and Nick Pivetta, the rest of the pitchers struggled to prevent left-handed hitters from reaching base.

How did the Brewers manage to be so consistent? Let’s explore some interesting details in this pair of charts.

On the left is the expected batting averages of the Brewers’ left-handed hitters against San Diego’s pitchers in the past postseason, and on the right, the summary of all hitters.

It is easy to notice one particular detail: the ability to get good results against pitches on the edges of the strike zone, right where they should be more difficult to reach. This result reveals how difficult it was to avoid contact and strike out most of these hitters, who tend to be aggressive throughout the zone. The best averages are precisely against low pitches over the plate, and in the high-and-outside zone for left-handed hitters, locations where the Padres were more dominant throughout the regular season.

As you can see here, San Diego managed to limit left-handed hitters in the high-and-outside zone, and they had no problems when they pitched outside the strike zone.

But the plan did not work against Milwaukee and, in the end, it was the left-handed hitters who made the difference with their quality at-bats. Yes, Jackson Chourio (six RBIs) and William Contreras (two RBIs) combined to capitalize on several key at-bats with runners on base that shaped the direction of the series, but when you look at the final results, it was the left-handed hitters who did the most damage; they scored eight of Milwaukee’s 13 runs, with five stolen bases in the same number of attempts.

View full article