Padres' Offense Has No Room to Continue Wasting Opportunities

It has not been for a lack of opportunities. The San Diego Padres have lost two games by one run, despite leading on the scoreboard in 10 of their 18 innings. Okay, I admit that even with that poor production, neither of their two main relievers, Adrian Morejon in Game 1 and Mason Miller in Game 2, was able to dominate to hold the tie and the lead.

But even before getting there, the Padres had enough opportunities to change the scoreboard and allow the bullpen to work much more comfortably against a lineup as productive as the Brewers’. In the two games, San Diego has let 13 opportunities to score runs with runners in scoring position slip away after taking the lead. All you want in October is for most of the important at-bats that could give the game a definitive turn to come when your best hitters step to the plate. The Padres have not lacked them, although ten of them came in Game 2.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has had the opportunity in three of them, including the only at-bat in an RISP situation when the Padres had a 2-0 lead against Jacob Misiorowski. Tatis Jr. hit a ground ball to Miz himself, advancing the runners to second and third. Then Dustin Harris walked after a great seven-pitch at-bat to load the bases, but Manny Machado was dominated on the first pitch with a ground ball to the shortstop.

The Padres could not take enough advantage of Misiorowski's slightly-off day, and then the bullpen prevented them from having more real opportunities to increase their win probability for the rest of the game. That was the prelude to Game 2, where the Brewers no longer had Miz, and had to face the bullpen for the second time.

However, the biggest loss of opportunities came in Game 2, when the Padres let five opportunities that could have become glorious postseason at-bats slip away against Logan Henderson, three of them in the second inning and two in the fifth. Tatis Jr. and Machado failed again, and in the eighth, Freddy Fermin and Xander Bogaerts left runners on first and second with fewer than two outs. Beyond the clutch situations, credit has to be given to the Brewers’ pitching, as San Diego’s power has completely disappeared, and they had the bad luck that Ty France’s fly ball that could have changed the series hit the roof cables at American Family Field.

The Padres are slashing .206/.316/.221, with no home runs, and have struck out 16 times in 79 plate appearances. With runners in scoring position, they have been worse, falling to .167/.250/.167, but with one important sign, which is that they have struck out only three times in 20 at-bats. The Brewers will send right-hander Dustin May to the mound as their starter in Game 3, and he will face San Diego for the fourth time this season. Two came with the St. Louis Cardinals and one after arriving in Milwaukee at the trade deadline, to post a 1-1 record, a 1.23 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 22 innings. All three were quality starts, and on June 15 he threw a shutout with nine strikeouts and only one hit allowed, a single by Manny Machado that broke up his no-hitter with one out in the top of the seventh.

As you can see here, there are five hitters who have combined to hit six home runs against May, with Machado accounting for two, despite the offensive line being low at .217/.281/.368, and they have not been able to take enough advantage of the impact of the power. There is also a group of four hitters who have not been easy outs for May, Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets, Jackson Merrill and Sung-Mun Song, who combine for 4-for-41 with a .098/.174/.195 line.

But there is a key point that San Diego’s hitters have to exploit to attack May, and that is that his fastball did not finish well in September. Hitters destroyed the three pitches he throws the most, averaging above .500 xSLG against the sinker (.716), cutter (.504), and four-seam fastball (.514). In that group, Manny Machado and Ty France stand out among those who have connected best against his sinker and four-seam fastball.

May tends to be a pretty uncomfortable pitcher because he has a tendency to pitch inside and then combine his curveball, sweeper, and changeup to generate swings and misses and make hitters chase pitches on the corners and outside the strike zone. He improved by incorporating a high-impact curveball with 55.3 inches of total drop, combined with the vertical profile of his sweeper at -3.9 inches, so we will see if he can repeat his dominance or if the Padres can wake up and get better at-bats to stay alive in these playoffs.

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