Padres Are The Team No One Wants To Face In The Postseason

Momentum is usually beneficial in the MLB postseason. Teams that make late runs to get into the dance tend to have a little success, if not make a bit of a run toward a World Series. Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams (six in each league) in 2022, there has twice been a bottom-two seed make the World Series (Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers) and a third make a League Championship Series (New York Mets) in the first three years of the format. Only last year did that not happen, when the top two seeds in each league made the respective LCS.

The pushes by the Phillies, Rangers and Mets can be, at least in part, attributed to having to finish the regular season with playoff-level games. Can the San Diego Padres be that team this year? Most definitely.

In fact, the Padres are not just used to playing with a bit of pressure in September, but the Friars have done it over an extended period of time this season. After a terrific April, horrid performances in May and June left the Padres with a 48-48 record at the All-Star break. The talk at the break was whether a Friars team that had inspired no confidence in the moment could make a run to allow president of baseball operations A.J. Preller to work his trade-deadline magic.

They went 2-5 immediately out of the break, falling a season-worst three games below .500, but then kicked it into high gear. As a nice bookend to this weekend's sweep of the Miami Marlins, the Padres' push began with a three-game sweep in Miami. Since July 24, the Friars are 37-16, a .698 winning clip, the best record in MLB, one game better than the Tampa Bay Rays, the presumptive No. 1 seed in the AL. That has put the Padres in a very good position entering the final week of the regular season.

Currently with a magic number of two to clinch a place in the postseason, the Padres are tied for the top spot in the NL Wild Card race with the Chicago Cubs, one game ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies, who are the likely No. 3 seed due to having a four-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final wild card with six games remaining.

However, the Padres have reached another gear in the last two weeks, winning 13 of 14 games, which included matching their season high with an eight-game winning streak. That has been fueled by an offense that has reached double digits in hits in 10 of 11 games entering the three-game series that begins Tuesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. As a team, the Friars have slashed .330/.383/.570 while smashing 20 homers and are averaging 7.3 runs per game. Now, they are allowing 4.5 runs per game, which can't happen in the postseason. And don't expect the Padres to have a .952 OPS as a team once October rolls around.

The potential is there for that, though. Throughout the second half, the Padres have brushed off the pressure and performed. It hasn't been as conventional as you would like, but it has worked for them. In the postseason, power and pitching are king.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has overcome not hitting a homer in the Padres' first 57 games to hitting 25 over the next 100, just three behind Manny Machado for the team lead. Tatis also has a .285/.355/.468 slash line with 81 RBIs, which is third on the team. While he won't win the award, Tatis will earn down-ballot NL MVP votes due to a .955 OPS in the second half, which is second in MLB to likely MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs. Jackson Merrill is tied for the second-most RBIs in MLB since the break with 48 while posting a .311/.345/.591 slash line in that same period. Machado still runs into homers on a frequent basis and, along with Tatis, is the player the Padres would most like to see come up in a big situation. Don't forget about Ty France, who might be the team MVP with a career-high 21 homers to go along with 70 RBIs while playing in 127 games.

There are other complementary players who have produced at various times throughout the season. Samad Taylor, Dustin Harris and Xander Bogaerts (while technically a core player, he hasn't produced at that level this year) have all had big moments, and there's a lot of reason to believe Ethan Salas and Luis Campusano have some of their own in store.

As for the pitching part of the postseason formula, we all know that the Friars' bullpen has three of the best back-end arms and could get another one back any day. Mason Miller, the Padres' lone All-Star, has had a few bumps in the second half, but has a career-high 37 saves. Left-hander Adrian Morejon has elevated his profile this season and forms an amazing 1-2 punch. Right-hander Bradgley Rodriguez, in his first full MLB season, has worked his way into a leverage role, while right-hander Jason Adam could return during the Dodgers series as he comes back from a strained right shoulder. After that, you have a mix of arms that can handle any other early-game situation.

In the rotation, right-hander Michael King is the Padres' No. 1, having turned in eight consecutive quality starts and 18 this season. Left-hander Robbie Ray has the profile of a playoff pitcher, able to deal with the pressure of any circumstance, and would start Game 2 or 3. For an NL Wild Card Series, you can piece together a Game 3 featuring some combination of right-handers Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler or Casey Mize, with right-hander Randy Vasquez able to step in quickly and provide a few innings. It is also possible that Mize doesn't make the postseason roster. That depth, thanks to Preller's acquisition of Ray and Mize at the deadline, is much better than the chaos plan the Padres were employing in late July.

For those reasons—the dynamic offense, a terrific bullpen and one top-flight starter—the Padres are a team that will be a threat against any team they face in the postseason.

Thanks to certain developments over the weekend, the Padres could have a better shot at winning the No. 1 Wild Card. The Cubs lost star third baseman Alex Bregman for an indefinite period of time when he got drilled by a foul ball while waiting to bat. His left eye is swollen shut, leaving the Cubs without a key bat and a team leader. The Cubs have a home series vs. the Marlins and a road series against the Boston Red Sox left, while the Phillies are home vs. the Milwaukee Brewers and the Rays, the top teams in each league.

Yes, the Padres have the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers on the road before finishing at Petco Park against the Diamondbacks, who could very well be eliminated before that series begins. The Dodgers are in fine-tuning mode after already clinching the NL West and a virtual lock to be the No. 2 NL seed. The rivalry between the Friars and Dodgers will certainly have the attention of L.A. if it can foil the Padres. If the Padres get one of the top two NL Wild Cards and win the opening postseason series, they would be paired against the Dodgers in the NL Division Series.

However, with the way the Friars are playing right now, following the pressure to perform since the All-Star break, with the players who are stepping up, the Padres are the most dangerous team entering the MLB postseason.

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