Winning Over Tarik Skubal Would Have Massive Domino Effect for Padres' Offseason

There are no handcuffs on A.J. Preller this offseason, or at least none that have thus far been made public. The San Diego Padres’ president of baseball operations is entering his first offseason unencumbered by the team’s debt, a mandate to slash payroll or any other financial barriers.

Welcome to the Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones regime. They are, as they have said many times in the last three months, "all in."

Thanks to their purchase of the Padres, the books are clean and all the accounting columns have been zeroed out. But that is what you should get when you fork out $3.9 billion for an MLB franchise, still a record until the Los Angeles Angels' $4 billion transaction becomes official.

Now, that doesn’t erase any other mistakes that are still on the books. Maybe some of that gets resolved this weird offseason we are just entering. But no matter what happens to the players already in tow, it's clear that the Friars aren't going to just helplessly watch the rest of the league improve; a lone report Monday may have put the Padres squarely in the middle of how this offseason transpires across MLB.

The Padres, having made the postseason a franchise-record three consecutive times and in five in the last seven years, are swimming in Tarik Skubal’s pool. While the news should bring a dose of excitement to the Friar Faithful, it also shouldn’t be surprising. Twice in the last three seasons, the Padres might have been the best team in the NL at the right time of the year (October). Twice, their season ended before reaching the World Series, much less winning it.

Skubal would be a huge step toward taking that next step. The Padres’ starting rotation is pretty barren at the moment. Joe Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, then maybe JP Sears comprise the group. Yu Darvish? Total wild card. None in their current condition would be a Game 3 starter in any postseason series, much less a Game 1 opener. Musgrove maybe, but he has to prove he is fully healthy. He pitched five innings this year, two in an exhibition game and three in the postseason with outcomes in hand. Vasquez was good in 2026, but not front-end-of-the-rotation good. Sears has appeared in 13 MLB games since being the "other" pitcher who came over from the A’s in the Mason Miller blockbuster at the 2025 trade deadline.

If the Padres can land Skubal, that would be the first step—a major one at that—in rebuilding the rotation on a long-term basis, not just for 2027. No more relying on veterans looking for a landing spot on cheap one-year deals or minor-league contracts. We saw how that went this year with German Marquez, Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning and Lucas Giolito. The promise was there, but the performance didn’t follow.

Skubal could be the first die cast if he signs quickly. That won’t be cheap, either. The soon-to-be 30-year-old who won the 2024 and 2025 AL Cy Young Awards with the Detroit Tigers, then became a mercenary and joined the failed effort by the Los Angeles Dodgers to win a third straight World Series, is by far the best player available in free agency.

His price tag will be eight or nine years with an average annual value of at least $45 million, which would be the largest for a pitcher. That means eight years, $360 million or nine years, $405 million as a likely launching point in negotiations. Considering the hardball Skubal played with the Tigers in last offseason’s arbitration case, opt-outs are probably not in the equation unless he wants one after, say, three years, while deferrals could be in play. Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, who has included deferrals in some mega-deals (Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman) though not in others (Juan Soto).

The competition has already thinned out. The Chicago Cubs, nearly as desperate for starters as the Padres, won’t be coming after Skubal. The New York Yankees probably aren’t in as they already have two well-paid starters in Gerrit Cole and Max Fried and another who is club-controlled through 2031 in Cam Schlittler, plus two position players making at least $40 million next year in Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge. The New York Mets were a mess this season and need more work than just bringing in Skubal to be a contender, though they can't be counted out.

That leaves the Dodgers among the big-spending contenders, with nods to the Mets and Braves. Skubal is a West Coast guy, too, having been born in Northern California before growing up in Arizona and and attending college in Seattle. The southpaw seems a little much for the Arizona Diamondbacks’ tastes and the Seattle Mariners are stacked with starters. The Houston Astros are loathe to spend big, but the Texas Rangers aren't.

Adding Skubal could make bringing back Michael King to the rotation a stronger possibility, at least from a team-building standpoint (though certainly not financial). If you invest in Skubal, you need to give him a supporting cast in the rotation. King turned into the Padres’ ace in the second half of the season and might only cost between $25 million and $28 million AAV for four years. Then, maybe you could sign old friend Nick Martinez for a couple seasons at $20 million max. Suddenly, you have Skubal, King and Martinez as your top three, with Musgrove, Vasquez and perhaps another signing in the back half, not to mention a potential reunion with Nick Pivetta. After all, we saw how much depth the Padres needed in their rotation this year, utilizing 11 true starters.

Put that together with an offense that still needs a little fortification and the Padres—losers to the Dodgers in a five-game NL Division Series in 2024, then a four-game NLDS this year to the Milwaukee Brewers—might not be thinking of themselves as the team that gave the eventual World Series champs their toughest battle of the postseason.

First, though, they need to win over Skubal.

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