Padres' Bullpen Is Facing Its Toughest Test All Year Against Cubs In Wild Card Series

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To survive in October, it is clear that the San Diego Padres will not be able to do it without the consistency of their bullpen. The starting rotation is still full of questions behind Michael King, so the bullpen will have to be prepared to take on a large number of innings if the starters cannot provide enough durability. The questions become even more concerning when we remember that the Padres lost four of their five games against the Chicago Cubs during the regular season, allowing 55 runs, 18 home runs, a 9.23 ERA, and a .420 wOBA.

Tm	ROLE	G	IP	ERA	TBF	H	2B	3B	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
SDP	RP	20	24	9.75	120	31	4	0	27	26	9	16	0	1	20	.304	.400	.608
SDP	SP	6	27.2	8.78	135	34	5	0	28	27	9	16	1	3	22	.293	.393	.569

Both the starters and relievers were punished, but that trend was unusual when it comes to the Padres’ bullpen. There are several pitchers who faced the Cubs during the regular season and others who are no longer in the Padres’ bullpen and, although the samples were small, there are several interesting points to analyze.

Pitcher	G	IP	ERA	TBF	H	R	ER	HR	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Hard%
Mason Miller	3	2.2	6.75	13	5	2	2	0	2	.417	.462	.417	.396	50.0%	81.8%	30.0%
JP Sears	1	4.2	11.57	25	8	7	6	3	4	.364	.440	.773	.508	83.3%	82.8%	50.0%
Wandy Peralta	2	2.2	10.12	12	4	3	3	1	0	.364	.417	.636	.454	100.0%	93.8%	36.4%
David Morgan	1	0.2	13.50	4	1	1	1	0	1	.333	.500	.667	.490	0.0%	83.3%	0.0%
Matt Waldron	1	5	5.40	22	6	3	3	1	1	.300	.364	.500	.377	58.3%	96.4%	15.8%
Griffin Canning	1	4.1	4.15	20	5	2	2	0	3	.294	.400	.412	.366	42.9%	84.0%	28.6%
Kyle Hart	3	3.1	18.90	19	4	8	7	3	6	.286	.421	.929	.518	0.0%	90.0%	55.6%
Walker Buehler	2	8.2	11.42	45	10	11	11	3	10	.270	.400	.568	.410	60.9%	86.7%	44.4%
Ron Marinaccio	2	3.2	4.91	19	4	2	2	2	2	.267	.421	.667	.456	57.1%	92.9%	30.8%
Randy Vásquez	1	5	9.00	23	5	5	5	2	4	.250	.348	.550	.385	68.8%	89.5%	43.8%
Jason Adam	3	3.1	5.40	14	3	2	2	1	3	.231	.286	.462	.323	37.5%	72.7%	44.4%
Bradgley Rodriguez	2	2	0.00	10	2	0	0	0	2	.222	.300	.333	.285	33.3%	75.0%	0.0%
Adrián Morejón	3	3.2	2.45	15	1	1	1	0	4	.083	.267	.167	.224	62.5%	89.5%	37.5%

There are several alarms here. First of all, those terrible 13 matchups in which Mason Miller was bombarded by the Cubs, allowing a .396 wOBA, with just two strikeouts and an unusual 81.8% in-zone contact rate. But this has not just been a temporary streak, as Cubs hitters are batting .313/.378/.469 with a .847 OPS in 37 plate appearances against the All-Star closer.

The statistics belong to Miller’s entire history against the hitters who have been on the Cubs’ roster this year. With the exception of Michael Busch and Miguel Amaya, all the other hitters on their roster who have faced him have collected at least one hit against Miller and, for being a small sample of matchups, several have had very good results against the best reliever in baseball. That said, most of the hits have been singles, and this year the hard-hit rate is just 30%. Even so, the mere fact that several hitters are putting the ball in play so frequently against Miller leaves us with an interesting situation that we should follow.

Now, let’s keep something in mind. Miller relieved in three regular-season games against the Cubs, but he pitched only 2 2/3 innings. All three of his appearances came in the ninth, and he ran into trouble in two of them. On April 27 in San Diego, he entered with a 9-5 lead and allowed two runs in the ninth. In his last appearance, on June 29, he relieved Jason Adam in the ninth, but ended up allowing a walk-off single to Seiya Suzuki for Chicago’s 3-2 victory at Wrigley Field. Miller, of course, will have to make adjustments to secure those final outs as he has done throughout this season. But, to get to the right-hander, the Padres’ bullpen will have to battle the inconsistencies of the starters to carry the game into the eighth or ninth inning.

For that reason, I still believe the biggest concern for the Padres will be the matchups in the middle of the game. And, for those moments, there are some pitchers who have been too vulnerable against Cubs hitters in their careers.

T	Pitcher	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SO%	BB%
L	Adrián Morejón	37	29	4	1	0	0	3	5	11	.138	.265	.172	.437	29.7%	13.5%
L	Wandy Peralta	66	59	11	1	0	2	6	6	11	.186	.258	.305	.563	16.7%	9.1%
L	Yuki Matsui	14	14	3	0	1	0	1	0	4	.214	.214	.357	.571	28.6%	0.0%
R	Jason Adam	44	37	8	1	0	1	2	5	11	.216	.302	.324	.627	25.0%	11.4%
R	Randy Vásquez	72	65	16	1	0	2	3	7	12	.246	.319	.354	.673	16.7%	9.7%
R	Bradgley Rodriguez	9	8	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	.250	.333	.375	.708	22.2%	11.1%
R	Griffin Canning	80	72	21	4	0	4	12	6	14	.292	.342	.514	.856	17.5%	7.5%
R	Mason Miller	37	32	10	2	0	1	4	4	9	.313	.378	.469	.847	24.3%	10.8%
L	Kyle Hart	27	18	7	1	0	3	9	8	7	.389	.577	.944	1.521	25.9%	29.6%

The three most experienced left-handers in the bullpen—Adrián Morejón, Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui—have been among the most dominant arms against Cubs hitters. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Michael Conforto and Michael Busch are a combined 1-for-16 with eight strikeouts and four walks against Morejón, who has allowed three RBIs without a hit. If we group Peralta and Matsui with Morejón, then the Cubs have a history of just .143/.246/.286 with a .531 OPS, only three extra-base hits, 14 strikeouts and six walks. Those only two home runs were hit by Crow-Armstrong off Peralta in five at-bats.

As you can see, other right-handers such as Jason Adam, Randy Vásquez and Bradgley Rodriguez can also join the matchup strategy, as they have also been consistent.

Either way, the Padres will have to make decisions about their rotation and determine which pitcher would move to reinforce the bullpen. They still have enough arms to try to stop the Cubs’ potent offense, but this will be one of the toughest tests this pitching staff has faced all year long.

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