Padres' Cheat Sheet: 3 Keys To Beat Cubs In Game 1 of Wild Card Series

We’ve made it. The postseason is finally here, and after a season in which it looked like the San Diego Padres might not even make it to October, they’ll be hosting the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card Round.

Now, the Padres have a chance to make all of those ups and downs worth it. They’ll have home-field advantage for the series, but Game 1 will be especially important. Whoever comes out on top will be just one win away from advancing, while the losing team will have to play perfect ball over the next two games to avoid being eliminated.

With that in mind, there are a few matchups that could ultimately decide who takes the first game of the series.

Michael King vs. Cubs Lineup

We have to start with Michael King against the Cubs’ lineup. There’s a reason Chicago is going to be such a difficult opponent for the Padres. The Cubs scored 850 runs during the regular season, the most of any team in baseball, and they have plenty of different ways to hurt an opposing pitching staff.

They’re led by likely National League MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong, who posted a 40-40 campaign and dominated every facet of the game this season. But the Cubs aren’t simply a one-man offense.

Seiya Suzuki, Alex Bregman and Michael Busch are all capable of flipping a game upside down with one swing, while Michael Conforto and Matt Shaw have been swinging a hot bat lately as well. There’s plenty of depth throughout the lineup, meaning King won’t have much room for mistakes.

The right-hander has never started against the Cubs in his career. He’s faced them twice, but both appearances came in relief during his time with the New York Yankees.

His first start against Chicago will come when the stakes are high. Pitching wins games in the postseason, and if San Diego is going to start the Wild Card Round with a victory, they’ll need a strong performance from their ace against the best offense in baseball this season.

Padres Offense vs. Cubs Bullpen

After that, we have to look at the Padres’ offense against Chicago’s bullpen.

For as red-hot as the Cubs’ offense has been this season, their bullpen hasn’t been quite as consistent. There are some quality arms in Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn who have been pitching well recently, but other names such as Ryan Rolison and Jacob Webb have been trending in the wrong direction.

That could give the Padres an opportunity, especially if they can get into Chicago’s bullpen relatively early. Across their six regular-season matchups, the Padres scored 10 runs in 20 innings against the Cubs’ bullpen. Obviously, this isn’t exactly the same group they had earlier in the season, and regular-season results don’t necessarily carry over into October. Still, it shows that the Friars are capable of putting together productive at-bats against a middling group of relievers.

The Padres have one of the biggest postseason strengths in baseball on their side when it comes to the bullpen. Their depth gives them plenty of options late in games, but that only matters if they have a lead to protect. Now, it’s on the offense to give that bullpen something to work with.

Who Capitalizes With Runners in Scoring Position?

The difference between winning and losing in the postseason can come down to one or two runs, and those runs often come from capitalizing when opportunities present themselves. A team can put together plenty of good at-bats, but if you leave runners stranded when you have a chance to score, you can find yourself in trouble.

On the season, the Padres have the seventh-highest OPS in baseball with runners in scoring position at .768. The Cubs, meanwhile, rank 18th with a .748 OPS in those situations. That doesn’t guarantee anything in Game 1, but it does provide some context for how the two offenses have performed when they’ve had opportunities to drive in runs.

If the home team is going to get the job done, they need to capitalize on those opportunities. And just as importantly, the Padres need to prevent Chicago from doing the same. That’s where having a deep bullpen could come in handy.

There are plenty of arms available, meaning the Padres can be selective about who they use depending on the matchup. If a particular hitter or pocket of the Cubs’ lineup presents a difficult challenge, San Diego has the flexibility to make a move. And if one reliever gets into trouble, there are plenty of other options available to try to get out of the inning. 

Of course, all of this could change depending on how the starters perform. King could dominate the Cubs’ lineup and make much of this irrelevant. The Cubs could also get to him early and force the Padres to rely on their bullpen for a significant portion of the game. The same is true on the other side.

But eventually, there’s a good chance both teams will find themselves in a situation where they need a big hit with runners in scoring position. In a postseason game between two teams capable of making a run, those late-game scoring chances could ultimately be the difference between winning and losing.

For the Padres, the formula is fairly simple: get a strong start from King, take advantage of the Cubs’ bullpen, and capitalize when opportunities arise. If they can do that, they’ll put themselves in a good position to take the first game of the series and move one step closer to advancing.

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