Padres Have An Obvious Strategy To Make Robbie Ray An Effective Playoff Starter

Around the time of the trade deadline, a lot of people expected the San Diego Padres to be sellers. Bullpen arms like Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon were some of the biggest names floated around as possible trade candidates, but in the end, the Friars decided to be buyers. One of the additions A.J. Preller made was starting pitcher Robbie Ray, who came over from the division rival San Francisco Giants.

Ray had been having a quality season with the Giants, posting a 3.08 ERA across 122 2/3 innings before the trade. While he’s obviously not the same pitcher who won the AL Cy Young Award back in 2021, he looked like someone who could provide the Padres with some valuable innings as they pushed toward the postseason. Fast-forward to late September, and San Diego is in a pretty good position. The Padres have a four-game lead for the final Wild Card spot, and if they can put together a strong final week of the regular season, they could even wind up hosting a Wild Card matchup. However, Ray hasn’t exactly been a major reason for that success since arriving in San Diego.

Through his first 39 2/3 innings with the Padres, Ray owns a 5.22 ERA. He’s walked 26 batters compared to just 31 strikeouts, while also allowing seven home runs. His 5.87 FIP is even worse than his already uninspiring ERA, which raises an important question: Assuming the team holds onto its playoff spot, what exactly should Ray’s role be in October?

It’s a tough question, especially considering the Padres’ other major pitching addition at the trade deadline, Casey Mize, is in a pretty similar position. But if I were making the decision, I think Ray would be best suited for a shorter, four-to-five-inning role. For as rough as his overall numbers have been, there’s a pretty interesting split hiding underneath them.

The first time through an opposing lineup, Ray has posted a 2.92 ERA. You’ll take that all day long, especially from a pitcher who doesn’t necessarily need to be your ace or your Game 1 starter. The second time through, his ERA rises slightly to 3.15. That’s obviously a little worse, but it’s still a very strong number for a middle-to-back-end starter. At that point, Ray has already given the Padres what they need from him.

But the third time through the order is where things really start to unravel. Ray’s ERA jumps all the way to 6.55 in those situations, and his strikeout rate drops from around 22% the first two times through the lineup to just 10%. Even more concerning, he’s actually walking more batters than he’s striking out once opposing hitters get that third look at him. That’s a problem.

It’s certainly not unusual for pitchers to perform worse the more times hitters see them. There’s a reason managers are constantly monitoring pitch counts, times through the order, and how a pitcher looks the second or third time around. Hitters get more familiar with a pitcher’s arsenal, and the margin for error gets smaller. But the sheer difference in Ray’s numbers is what stands out. That’s why I think the Padres should be careful about trying to squeeze too much length out of Ray in the postseason.

If San Diego gets into a playoff series, I’d be perfectly comfortable with Ray starting a game and going four or five frames. Let him face the lineup twice, assuming he’s pitching effectively, and then turn the game over to the bullpen. That approach would allow the Padres to get the best version of Ray without putting him in situations where his biggest weaknesses become more exposed. And let’s be honest, if the Padres are going to make a serious postseason run, their bullpen is going to have to be a big reason why.

The Friars made the decision to be buyers at the trade deadline for a reason. The team clearly believes they have enough pitching depth to make a postseason push, and leaning on the strength of the roster is never a bad idea. There’s no reason to ask Ray to eat huge chunks of innings if the Padres have other arms capable of taking over once he reaches the point where hitters are seeing him for a third time.

That doesn’t mean Ray should be treated like someone the Padres can’t trust. Quite the opposite, actually. They just need to make sure they don’t ask him to be something he isn’t anymore.

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