Padres Have Suffered Greatly From Injuries, But It Could Be Worse

It is no secret that the San Diego Padres are a bit fortunate to be in the position they are. They entered their weekend series against the Minnesota Twins in the No. 3 position in the NL wild-card chase after many had left the Friars for dead following an eight-game losing streak before the All-Star break.

A combination of starting rotation woes and poor offense were to blame for much of that malaise, issues that have been fixed one way or the other to have the Padres contending once again.

Of course, injuries have also played a noteworthy role in where the Padres are and fans can dream about where the Friars would be if right-handers Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta had not been relegated to a combined four starts so far this season, all by Pivetta.

According to a recent article on FanGraphs, the Padres have lost a potential 7.7 fWAR through injuries this year, the 13th-most in MLB ("potential" being a key word there). That is a rather middle-of-the-pack number, which also feels right when you consider which players the Padres have had go on the injured list this season and for how long. Aside from Pivetta (2.3 projected fWAR) and Musgrove (2.0), left fielder Ramon Laureano’s likely season-ending shoulder surgery from early June and second baseman Jake Cronenworth’s seven-week absence due to a concussion are the other most significant ailments. Laureano and Cronenworth had a 2.5 projected fWAR.

Another right-handed starter, Lucas Giolito (0.9 fWAR), has missed a significant chunk of time, while right-handed reliever Jason Adam (0.4) has been sidelined since July 2. Three other position players are worth mentioning as well. Catcher Freddy Fermin (1.9) was sidelined twice by injuries, fellow backstop Luis Campusano (0.9) was out for nearly a month, while left fielder Miguel Andujar (0.2) remains out since July 20. (Note that right-handed reliever Bryan Hoeing was not included on the preseason projection as he was ruled out for the season during spring training.)

The FanGraphs article noted that the fWAR used to determine the fWAR lost was rerun for this exercise, so the numbers listed here doesn’t necessarily match up, but does give you an idea of their perceived preseason importance.

Of the teams that have lost more fWAR than the Friars, yes, the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers are there at 10.1, tied with the Houston Astros for fifth-most. The Boston Red Sox have lost the most potential fWAR at 12.8, while the St. Louis Cardinals have lost the least at 1.9.

For the remainder of the season, the Padres are projected to lose 1.9 fWAR. A good piece of this would be Pivetta, followed by Laureano, Andujar and Adam. That total is tied for 15th with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Dodgers, conversely, are projected to lose 1.6 fWAR.

Musgrove is likely to be back next week, while Pivetta could soon start a new rehab assignment. Musgrove took four rehab assignments (across 17 days) to get to a good spot and return. Adam, the primary right-handed setup man, remains about a month away from coming back, which could make his availability for the postseason, at least the first series, a bit murky. Andujar is the other key injured player and he just started swinging a bat again.