Playoff Slumber: Padres Offense Goes Dark Against Cubs in Game 1

Prior to this series against the Chicago Cubs, what did we all say was the most important thing for the San Diego Padres to do? Not get beat before the bullpen cavalry could arrive.

Anyone want to guess what happened today?

Nick Pivetta was mostly tremendous, save for two crucial mistakes. The bullpen was as advertised, besides a wild pitch that got away from Jeremiah Estrada. And the offense... was, well, offensive. Xander Bogaerts was the only player to hit the ball with any sort of authority, as the Friars managed just one run on four hits. The lineup was utterly dismantled by Matthew Boyd and the Cubs' own elite crop of relievers.

Now, the Padres are staring down an elimination game against (likely) Shota Imanaga in Game 2, which they have to win in front of a raucous, hostile crowd just for the right to play a sudden death Game 3. Let's hope Dylan Cease brings the goods tomorrow, because otherwise, this season is about to come to a screeching halt.

In the meantime, let's review the most impactful plays from the game, per WPA via Baseball Savant:

3. Top 2nd: Xander Bogaerts hits RBI double off Matthew Boyd, +12.7% Win Expectancy

This was both the highlight and lowlight of the Padres' day on offense.

Bogaerts fought off a few tough pitches from Boyd before finally getting a mistake pitch, and he drove in Jackson Merrill (who hit a bloop double of his own) by smoking a line drive into the gap. It put San Diego ahead 1-0, and Bogaerts advanced to third on a throwing error from the usually-infallible Pete Crow-Armstrong.

That's when any semblance of offense died. Bogaerts was stranded at third, as the lineup produced a hard groundout (which required a nice play by Dansby Swanson), a pop out, and another groundout to end the threat. The Padres wouldn't score again, notching just two more hits in the contest.

2. Bottom 5th: Carson Kelly hits solo home run off Nick Pivetta, -14.8% Win Expectancy

This was the real backbreaker, as Kelly went back-to-back with Seiya Suzuki to give the Cubs a lead they wouldn't relinquish.

The funny thing is this wasn't even that bad of a pitch—Pivetta was beating the Cubs with his fastball all day prior to this at-bat. Unfortunately, he threw it one too many times, and Kelly lifted the ball just high enough to hit it out through the swirling Wrigley Field win.

Though it didn't end up mattering in the final score, Nico Hoerner's sac fly in the eighth inning was also a killer (even though it only added 1.9% win expectancy to the Cubs' bottom line), as it was clear the Padres weren't scoring multiple runs in the ninth inning.

1. Bottom 5th: Seiya Suzuki hits solo home run off Nick Pivetta, -15.8% Win Expectancy

No surprises here. Pivetta looked unbeatable until Suzuki came up to the plate for the second time, laying off a few bad pitches up in the zone before finally getting a mistake pitch down the heart of the plate.

This gave the Cubs all the momentum they needed behind a wild home crowd, as Kelly would hit his game-winning shot just moments later. Suzuki was on fire prior to the playoffs, homering in his last four games of the regular season, and its frustrating that Pivetta let the hottest hitter on the team beat him.

Next up:

The Padres will play Game 2 against the Cubs at Wrigley Field tomorrow, Oct. 1. They must win the next two games or they will be eliminated from the playoffs.