Rotation, Bullpen Or El Paso: Analytically Breaking Down German Marquez's Arsenal

Thinner than a rail all offseason, the San Diego Padres' rotation now has a glut of options. The most recent addition is former Colorado Rockies ace German Marquez, who reportedly agreed to a one-year contract with a mutual option for 2027. He brings the number of pitchers in camp competing for the last two spots to at least eight.

San Diego isn't getting anything near the All-Star version of Márquez. The 30-year-old was hit hard last year after missing close to two full seasons because of elbow problems. In 126 1/3 innings over 26 starts, he posted full-season career worsts across the board: a 6.70 ERA/5.47 FIP, 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, a .545 slugging percentage against and a .923 OPS against. He allowed 168 hits and 23 home runs.

Our series on rotation candidates continues with Marquez. Should he be in the Friars' rotation, work out of the bullpen, or go down to Triple-A El Paso to begin 2026?

Germán Márquez's Stuff

In terms of results, Márquez's best pitch last year was his knuckle curve. It was well below-average in both movement and drop, but it had above-average spin (64th percentile). It served as Marquez's out pitch: opponents batted .208 with a 33.9 percent K rate against it. Despite that, it produced a negative-6 run value.

Marquez's fastball velocity was league-average -- 94.8 mph on his four-seamer, 94.2 mph on his sinker -- but both pitches were about one mile per hour slower than his fastballs in 2022 and continued to have below-average spin (24th percentile). The four-seamer did have above-average horizontal movement, with 10.9 inches of arm-side run (in to right-handed batters, away from left-handed batters). And yet, hitters feasted on it, slugging .642. The pitch had a negative-24 run value.

Opponents punished the rest of the repertoire, too. Marquez's sinker, slider, and changeup produced respective SLG's of .545, .565, and .556. Each of those pitches flashed below-average movement.

There were plenty more ugly peripherals to go around. Marquez's ground-ball rate plummeted to a career-low 36.6 percent and his air rate soared to a career-high 63.3 percent. His 91.7 mph average exit velocity was more than two miles per hour higher than his career norms. His 11.1 barrel rate was the second-worst of his career. He allowed a 1.057 OPS after falling behind 1-0 in the count.

There is a Coors Effect in Marquez's career splits, but it shows up in hits allowed rather than home runs allowed. He has averaged 9.99 hits per nine at Coors, compared to 8.53 per nine outside Denver. That speaks to the fact that lots of hits fall in at Coors Field because of the park's spacious outfield. His home run rates are 3.44 percent at home and 3.29 percent on the road.

For what it's worth, Petco Park has been a good place for him. His career numbers there are skewed by two poor outings last year -- 12 earned runs in seven innings. Prior to that, he had a 3.64 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 10 games (nine starts).

German Marquez's Arsenal

Márquez was essentially a three-pitch pitcher last season. He threw the four-seamer 35 percent of the time, a knuckle curve 32 percent of the time, and a sinker 20 percent of the time. He also made use of slider (11 percent) and changeup (2 percent), though they were seldom featured. Of note: He threw his slider 21 percent of the time in 2022, his last full season prior to 2025. His knuckle-curve made up that 10-point difference last year.

As usual, there was a narrow gap between the fastballs and his secondary pitches: 9.3 mph between his fastest (four-seamer) and slowest (knuckle curve, 85.5 mph). That was in line with his career averages. His slider (88.8) and changeup (88.5) were thrown at almost the same speed.

The use of his fourth and fifth pitches was based almost strictly on batter handedness. He threw 196 of his 226 sliders to right-handed batters and 49 of his 50 changeups to left-handed batters.

What Should German Marquez's Role Be in 2026?

Márquez's 2025 season says that he shouldn't be guaranteed anything, but his history and contract say that he will begin the year in the rotation.  

How long he stays in it will depend on performance. The Rockies kept running him out there last year to eat innings. The Padres will have a fraction of that patience in 2026. 

If Márquez is eventually moved to a long-man role, it would be his first relief work since 2016, when he was a rookie. Again, because he's signing a major-league deal, it's almost certain that the Padres would keep him around as the 13th man on the staff. El Paso feels very far away, despite the recent results.