San Diego Padres Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Jason Adam

The San Diego Padres' 2025 season ended too soon, but that just means extra prep time for the offseason. One of the linchpins of the amazing bullpen is Jason Adam, who is one of many players entering the offseason with one final year of arbitration eligibility. 

Originally drafted in the fifth round by the Kansas City Royals in 2010, Adam followed up a sharp 2024 season with similar numbers this year:

• 65 Games (most appearances on the team before his injury)
• 65.1 Innings Pitched
• 1.93 ERA
• 3.07 FIP
• 25.9 K%
• 9.3 BB%
• 0.55 HR/9
• 1.2 FanGraphs WAR

He provided important stability in the Padres bullpen. Considered one of the original four horsemen, before the late addition of Mason Miller, Adam brought in much-needed variety, going with his slider and changeup more than his fastball. 

Adam, 34, is now entering his fourth and final year of arbitration (he spent the first two with the Tampa Bay Rays). The Padres have not gone to an arbitration hearing since 2014, the year general manager A.J. Preller took over the team, so it will be interesting to see how San Diego decides how to handle Adam's case. 

Adam was having just as good of a year as one could have hoped, and then he had a horrific injury out of nowhere, rupturing his quad tendon in his left quadriceps right before the final push to the playoffs started. This is a significant injury that will add risk to any sort of extension that gets brought to the table. The injury typically takes six to nine months to recover from, meaning that Adam won’t be pitching again until around the start of the 2026 MLB season at the earliest.

Adam was used in many high-leverage situations by former manager Mike Shildt, and given his performances over the course of 100+ innings of work, the Padres should strongly consider negotiating a multi-year extension sooner rather than later. General managers typically want to “buy low” to try to lock up talent in order to boost the overall roster, and the injury could leave a potential situation with an unknown outcome that could work in the Padres' favor. 

The Padres are clearly building a top-tier bullpen. With Adam in the mix, alongside the likes of Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, and Mason Miller, they have the pieces to dominate the late innings. Keeping Adam under control helps avoid having to replace that late-inning production at a higher price later. 

The Padres still have championship hopes in 2026, and the consistency of Jason Adam is what you are looking for in a reliever. Here are some of Adam’s expected/advanced stats from between 2024 (listed first) and 2025 (second) that show his consistency:

• 88.5 and 88.8 Opponent Exit Velocity
• .336 and .315 xSLG
• .276 and .263 xWOBA
• 37.8 and 38.0 Opponent Hard-Hit rate
• 3.14 and 2.67 xERA

There are plenty of rumors going around as well about Mason Miller and even Adrian Morejon possibly joining the starting rotation in 2026, barring any starting pitching acquisition this offseason. If that is in fact the case, shoring up the bullpen with known quantities becomes an even higher priority if more of the Padres success is diverted toward the early innings instead of the late ones. 

Now, this conversation comes with the important stipulation that everything goes well for Adam during his rehabilitation. The last three months of recovery is returning the injured leg to the sport and ensuring the strength and stability of said leg. The goal is to have the injured leg have at least 85-90% of the strength and stability of the uninjured leg. Adam injured his left leg, which as a right-handed pitcher, means that is the leg that he uses as his lead leg driving towards home plate. This is what he uses to create the forward momentum to generate the power behind the pitch. A strong, stable plant with the lead leg is crucial for a powerful and efficient delivery. Losing roughly 10% of that could mean we see a faster drop-off than we would have seen without it.

Thankfully, there's some risk mitigation already built into Adam's arsenal. The veteran reliever threw three primary pitches last season:

• Slider - 35.1%
• Changeup - 33.4%
• Four-seamer - 22.7%

His slider and changeup have been more heavily utilized since joining the Padres, naturally coming at the expense of his fastball. In 2024, his fastball was the pitch he used the most at 37.1%. He was already making his transition to more off-speed before his injury, which should continue as he gets older and rehabs his leg.

Nobody knows how Adam is going to recover from his injury, however, based on his track record, he should still be in a Padres uniform in 2026 to help the team move closer toward a championship. That could happen via a cordial arbitration process as a “prove-it” year coming back from injury, or through a contract extension to get him at a lower price over multiple years. Either way, Adam is still a crucial part of the Padres bullpen as a model of consistency.