With Questions About Joe Musgrove, the Padres Have Rotation Reinforcements Ready

When spring training started, the San Diego Padres could pencil in three names to their 2026 starting rotation for Opening Day: Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove. The other two spots? A few question marks.

At that time, barring anything unforeseen, Musgrove was the only one with slight concerns about his status, as the right-hander was coming off Tommy John surgery, which took place after making his lone postseason start in October 2024. The timeframe of him returning from the procedure to the Friars' active roster made it very possible that March 26 vs. the Detroit Tigers was in play.

But every road has a slight curve(ball).

Now, as we sit two weeks from Opening Day at Petco Park, the normal things that happen in spring training are happening to the Padres' starting rotation. And it begins with Java Joe's status. Following his start last week in a World Baseball Classic exhibition against Great Britain, his first appearance in a game this spring, Musgrove hasn't recovered as expected, with the Friars giving him extra time before making his second start. Teams usually ease pitchers back into action following Tommy John surgery, but Musgrove threw 60 pitches vs. Great Britain.

Several days later, Musgrove said of his right arm: "It feels like I had surgery."

It is not unusual for any pitcher, much less one coming back from a significant surgery, to experience arm issues in spring training. Right-hander Nick Pivetta, the presumed Opening Day starter, had his start Sunday skipped due to arm fatigue, but threw a "touch and go" bullpen Tuesday. He has another bullpen session scheduled for Thursday. Presuming that goes well, Pivetta will return to the rotation over the weekend.

So, where does all of this leave the Padres' starting rotation? King is still a lock as he appears fully healthy after being limited to 15 starts in 2025 due to a rare nerve issue in his right shoulder and then knee inflammation. Fellow right-hander Randy Vasquez has been the best starter this spring, putting a stranglehold on his place in the rotation. Provided Pivetta comes out of Thursday's bullpen fine and keeps making starts in spring training, that is three spots spoken for.

Right-hander German Marquez, the former Colorado Rockies ace signed as camp started, has turned in a solid first two appearances this spring and is the default option having signed a major-league contract. That leaves it up to Musgrove's status to determine the final starter.

With right-hander Griffin Canning, like Marquez signed to a major-league contract, still making his way back from a ruptured left Achilles sustained in June and ticketed for the injured list to begin the season, the next logical candidate is former Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler. Signed to a minor-league contract, Buehler has been encouraging in his first two starts this spring. He recently said he was pain-free following his own Tommy John surgery that affected how he pitched last year for the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies. His pedigree, as long as his stuff holds up, would fit very nicely into the Friars' starting give. If not, Buehler does have the ability to opt-out of his contract if not included on the Opening Day roster.

Another option, if Musgrove is able to go Opening Day but not quite built up to where he needs to be, would be carrying an extra starter. This would bode well for someone like left-hander Kyle Hart, who has been building up his innings this spring as a "bridge" reliever, as first-year manager Craig Stammen said. Hart's chances are also bolstered if another left-hander, Yuki Matsui, is not available by Opening Day due to his strained left groin.

Regardless, the Friars seem to be in a decent position to absorb whatever happens to Musgrove and Pivetta between now and Opening Day.