Fernando Tatis Jr: Very Good Again In 2025 Or A Return To Superstardom?

[Randy Holt]

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s career has stabilized after a rapid ascent and even faster fall. Does this mean we should expect a return to his meteoric upside in 2025? 

Given all that's transpired since it feels like a decade ago, but the San Diego Padres were must-watch television for even the most neutral observers in the not-too-distant past. A new aesthetic combined with an infusion of exciting talent and front-office aggression made them one of the more fascinating organizations in the sport. Fernando Tatis Jr. was, of course, central to this. 

Tatis broke onto the scene with 84 games in 2019, turned in a very good 59 games during the 2020 season, and was an MVP finalist in 2021. Across two partial and one full season, he never posted a wRC+ figure under 150. The latter campaign saw him turn in a slash that included a .282 average, .364 on-base percentage, and .975 OPS on his way to a 158 wRC+ while ISO'ing an obscene .328. 

At this point, we know what the subsequent season included. A motorcycle accident-induced broken wrist and a PED suspension wiped out 2022 and forced him into a late start in 2023. After such a lengthy stint away from the game, the readjustment led to underwhelming outcomes that year, not just for Tatis but also for the Padres, who disappointed as a collective. Ahead of 2024, it was natural to wonder whether we'd already seen the best Fernando Tatis Jr.had to offer. That notion proved to be misguided on two separate levels.

One is the fact that there is, indeed, quite a good baseball player still in there. The other is that there's probably an even better version of Tatis waiting to be unlocked. The 2024 season saw Tatis turn in a .276/.394/.407/.801 line, finishing with a 135 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR. In broad strokes, it was well off his 2021 output but improved in a couple of key areas while leaving optimism for others. 

The most notable absence from Tatis' very solid 2024 campaign was in the power. His ISO checked in at .216, representing his lowest power output besides the tough hang of a 2023 season. The home run total sat at just 21, lower than even 2023 when he ISO'd only .191 but hit 25. His walk rate was also at its lowest, with a mere 7.3 BB%. 

But there were also worthy improvements elsewhere. The K%, at 21.9, was the lowest of his career. His 74.4 percent contact rate was his highest, while his 12.8 Whiff% was his best over a full season. His bat speed was also up a tick, his rate of fast swings skyrocketed, and he experienced a 4-5 percent increase in rates of squared-up contact and blasts. The former developments speak to a maturation in his approach, the latter to the idea that 2023 served as a readjustment for Tatis above all. Regardless, all of it should have led to better outcomes given this: 

While the approach was improved for Tatis within his own individual context, it's obviously not quite there with the rest of the league. But the actual contact trends indicate that this guy has far more electricity in the stick than we saw come to fruition last season. Most of those percentile rankings look similar to where they fell in 2021, with the approach figures also sitting much higher than they did even then. We can objectively say that Fernando Tatis Jr.was good in 2024. The above indicates he was quite a bit more than that. 

The projections ahead of the 2025 season are indicative of just that. Each of Steamer & ZiPS has him checking in at a wRC+ above 140, with a return to ISO figures well above .200. Steamer likes him for a .253 figure, and ZiPS is at .249. PECOTA has him jumping back up over 30 homers and a 126 DRC+ (and even that's with the BABIP coming down back under .300). Anywhere you turn, the machines are in love with Fernando Tatis Jr.and his 2025 prospects. The combination of increased health and maturity (both on and off the field) gives us no reason to doubt them.

He had the 2023 readjustment, and the physical tools manifested again in 2024. It's all there. It's probably time for us to get back on board.

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[Brandon Glick]

This is going to be an MVP type season for Tatis. You've only convinced me more.